Iran Nuclear Crisis Hitting Point of No Return

[sonz]

TEHRAN, January 13, 2006 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) – The crisis over Iran's nuclear program seemed Friday, January 13, heading fast toward the point of no return, with the Islamic Republic threatening to stop cooperation with the UN atomic watchdog if its nuclear file is referred to the UN Security Council.

"If the dossier is sent to the Security Council, the European countries will lose the means which are currently at their disposal, because... the government will be obliged, in conformity with the law adopted by parliament, to end all its voluntary measures of cooperation," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency.

Last December, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed off on legislation obliging the government to "stop voluntary and non-legally binding measures and implement its scientific, research and executive programs" if the Security Council gets involved, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported.

The Iranian President has also ordered Iran's Atomic Energy Agency to be prepared to apply the law, according to the Fars news agency.

The law does not refer to specific forms of retaliation, but measures could include resumption of uranium enrichment as well as refusing to adhere to the additional protocol of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which gives increased inspection powers to the IAEA.

The additional protocol was signed by the previous reformist government but was never ratified by the conservative-run parliament.

Escalating Standoff

"I cannot fully exclude such a scenario," Ivanov said on referring Iran to the UNSC. (Reuters).

Iran's standoff with the international community has escalated after Tehran Tuesday resumed sensitive nuclear research linked to uranium enrichment.

Accusing Iran of turning its back on the international community, the EU's big three -- Britain, Germany and France -- said it had consistently breached its commitments and failed to show the world its nuclear activities were peaceful.

"Obviously if Iran failed to comply, the Security Council would then consider sanctions," British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said.

Asked if force was an option, Straw said: "No one is talking about invading Iran or taking military action against Iran".

France, for its part, said Friday it was "premature" to speak of sanctions against Iran for resuming sensitive nuclear activities.

"The question of sanctions is premature," foreign ministry spokesman Jean-Baptiste Mattei said.

He stressed that it was necessary to "proceed step by step" after Thursday's meeting of the French, German and British foreign ministers in Berlin.

The French spokesman said that Paris would "continue consultations" with Russia, China and its European partners on the issue.

The European group of three called for an extraordinary meeting of the IAEA board of governors to refer Iran to the UN Security Council.

Officials from the European Union, United States, China and Russia will meet over the Iran nuclear crisis in London on Monday, a European diplomat said Friday in Vienna.

Russia

Rice accused Tehran of a "deliberate escalation" of the dispute. (Reuters).

Russia, which has been trying to reach a compromise with Iran on uranium enrichment by carrying out the process on its soil, also urged Tehran to resume a moratorium on nuclear research and cooperate with the IAEA.

"We again call on Iran to revise its decisions and resume the moratorium and engage in full and transparent cooperation with the IAEA," Russian foreign ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said in a written statement.

"We are examining carefully the proposals for calling an emergency session of the IAEA Board of Directors to determine the agency's future steps, including the question of the appropriateness of informing the UN Security Council on the Iranian issue."

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov separately evoked the increasing likelihood that the Security Council would take up the Iran issue.

"I cannot fully exclude such a scenario," Interfax news agency quoted him as saying. "It is entirely possible."

In the past, Russia and China have opposed referral of Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council.

But European diplomats said they were unlikely to vote against it after Iran ignored a plea by all the council's five permanent members at the weekend not to proceed with uranium enrichment.

Asked if US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had won a pledge from the Russians not to block referral, one European diplomat said: "I believe that is the case," according to Reuters.

He said it appeared politically impossible for Russia or China to vote against referral.

"Last Sunday the P5 members made a joint demarche to the Iranian ambassador in Vienna. That was already a strong political signal," the diplomat said.

However, it was unclear if Moscow or Beijing, which have big commercial interests in Iran, would back any later move to slap UN sanctions on the world's fourth-biggest oil exporter.

In Washington, Rice accused Tehran of a "deliberate escalation" of the dispute.

She said that Tehran was in "dangerous defiance of the entire international community."

Options

The US, along with Britain and France, three of the security council's five permanent members, will have little problem in securing a majority for referral to UN Security Council.

Predicting what further action could be taken against Tehran, the Guardian set three main options left before the major world powers in dealing with Iran's nuclear standoff.

The meeting of the EU three - Britain, France and Germany - marks the end of two years of talks between the EU and Iran and a move to the UN security council.

Sanctions

Referral to New York does not mean the end of diplomacy but the focus will be on isolating Iran, then possibly moving to punitive action, according to The Guardian.

"This could take the form of a travel ban on the Iranian leadership or limited trade bans.

"Iran could respond by pulling out of voluntary inspections of its nuclear program."

Military Strike

The British daily went on predicting that getting UN security council agreement for a military strike is almost impossible.

"The US or Israel could act unilaterally. A land attack on Iran is not feasible but the US and Israel argue it is possible to have air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities."

The US accuses Iran of having a secret program to manufacture nuclear weapons, a claim Tehran vehemently denies, maintaining that its nuclear program is only designed to produce electricity.