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View Full Version : Religious vote key to election result as Labour closes in on Conservatives



Uthman
02-27-2010, 03:04 PM
In an opinion poll conducted for Theos by ComRes, support for the Conservatives has dropped two points from last week to 38%, Labour is up one to 30% and the Lib Dems are down one to 20%. Others are up two to 12%. All these changes are within the margin of error.

The poll reveals some striking differences among religious groups. Despite the Iraq war and concern about anti-terror laws, 57% of Muslims intend to vote Labour. Only 32% of Muslims are 'absolutely certain' to vote, however – well below the national average of 47%.

For the Conservatives, support amongst those of no religion has grown sharply since 2005 (up from 21% to 34%) but amongst Christians it has only grown from 38% to 40%. Amongst Christians, however, 48% say they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, a figure which rises to 61% amongst Christians who say their faith is very important to their lives.

One reason for the Conservatives’ limited gains amongst Christians is that only 21% of people believe that the Conservative Party has been the friendliest towards the Christian faith over recent years, only fractionally different from the 20% for Labour. 9% say the Liberal Democrats.

However, Labour is seen as most friendly to Islam by 36% of the public, while 10% say the same of the Conservatives and 7% say it of the Liberal Democrats. Among Muslims, 49% say that Labour is most friendly towards their faith.

The Liberal Democrats poll best amongst people who say they do not belong to any religion, scoring 26% compared to 20% overall and 18% amongst Christians.

The research also reveals that one-third of people (32%) believe that religious freedoms have been restricted in Britain over the last 10 years, compared with 59% who disagree. However, both Muslims and strong Christians take a different view. 51% of Christians who say their faith is very important to their lives and 53% of Muslims believe that religious freedoms have been restricted over the past 10 years.

In the light of recent comments by the Pope regarding the UK’s equality laws, it is notable that two thirds (64%) of people believe that he and other religious leaders have a responsibility to speak out on political issues they are concerned about, compared with only 30% who disagree. 63% disagree that the law should prevent people from expressing their religious views in the work place.

The poll also shows a gender divide in attitudes towards religion with women less likely than men to say their religious beliefs do not really influence their life (40% - 53%).

Commenting on the research, Director of Theos Paul Woolley said:

"The result of the election looks too close to call. We're in hung parliament territory.

"The balance of support among the different faith groups shows that the Conservatives cannot afford to lose the current support they have among Christians. Labour is in a position where it could benefit from reaching out especially to Christians.

"The problem for Labour is that the people most likely to support Labour are also the least likely to vote. Muslims are most likely to vote Labour (57%) but only 32% of Muslims are 'absolutely certain' to vote, compared with 47% of the population as a whole.

"The UK isn't like the United States, but the religious vote is going to be a critical factor in determining who gets into Number 10 – especially when it comes to appealing to female voters."

For the full data tables, click here.
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Uthman
02-27-2010, 03:06 PM
Comment by Nick Spencer:

Muslim voters' loyalty to Labour


Do new figures on the voting intentions of Muslims undermine ideas about the rise of identity politics?

The Iraq war was supposed to have poisoned Labour's relations with British Muslims. Tony Blair's apparently unqualified support for a bellicose Republican administration despised around the Muslim world was deeply unpalatable. Years of anti-terror legislation were judged by some to have stigmatised Muslims and fanned Islamophobic flames. The government's attempt to outlaw religious hate speech was seen, by sceptics at least, as simply a desperate, ill-thought through peace offering with which they might woo disaffected Muslim supporters.

According to new Theos/ComRes research, however, no wooing is necessary. If there were a general election tomorrow, 35% of voting Muslims (meaning those Muslims who claim they are more likely than not to vote) would vote Labour. This compares with 22% of voting Christians and 23% of the entire voting population. By comparison, whereas 30% of the voting population would tick the Conservative box, only 13% of voting Muslims would do so.

Polling questions are liable to misinterpretation so the same question was tackled from different angles. The results concurred. Only one in 20 of those who call themselves Muslim say that they "generally" consider themselves to be Conservative compared, with 42% who consider themselves Labour (the national figures are 23% Conservative and 28% Labour). Similarly, 49% of Muslims claim they feel that the Labour party has been most friendly towards the Muslim faith over recent years, compared with 6% who think that the Conservatives have been.

The narrative appears to receive a dent when data show that a fifth of Muslims think Labour has been least friendly towards the Muslim faith over recent years. However, given that more Muslims (nearly a quarter) think the Conservatives have been the least friendly party, despite the fact they haven't really been in a position to do anything, the dent appears illusory. In spite of everything, Labour appears to remain the natural home for British Muslims.

The reasons for this are not entirely clear. It is relatively easy to explain why so few Muslims intend to vote Conservative. The opposition supported the Iraq war, have been equally resolute on issues of national security and, importantly, have been critical of the government's immigration policy, a subject about which Muslims are less bothered than anyone else. But that explains Muslim antipathy towards the Conservative party, not support for Labour.

There are good demographic and socio-economic reasons for that support. British Muslims are disproportionately younger and more urban. They come from lower-income households and experience higher levels of unemployment. These factors traditionally edge voters to the left. Perhaps the Muslim vote is actually made up of cross-currents of wider and more powerful demographic and socio-economic trends.

If this were so, it would imply that much of what we think we have learnt about identity politics over the last two decades is questionable. If those Muslims who choose to vote, vote according to whether they are young, urban, poor or unemployed rather than because they are Muslim, it would mean that attempts to court the Muslim vote, or even engage with the Muslim community, are misguided.

That might make psephological sense but intuitively it seems wrong. The shift from ethnic to religious identity politics over the last two decades cannot have been one big mistake.

Another interpretation is that the data might simply be reminding us of the complexity of voting decisions. All of us are made up of multiple identities. Any one individual may be a parent, son, brother, shopper, homeowner, employee, and community activist, as well as a Christian, Muslim or atheist. Which combination of these identities decides the vote will vary from one person to another, but in the current economic climate we can be reasonably sure that shopper, homeowner and employee will be elevated at the expense of other identities.

Such an analysis would allow us to keep the idea of identity politics while also keeping it in its place. People do think and even vote as Muslims, Christians, or atheists, but they do so alongside the multitude of other identities that jostle inside them. As each identity carries with it political agendas and hopes that may be in tension with others, how we vote may have something in common with how genes work: environment and circumstance turning on one identity while turning down others.

Alternatively, it may simply be a free for all, different identities competing and co-operating with one another to win the vote. Perhaps the messy compromise that is politics begins inside every one of us.

Source

Nick Spencer is director of studies at the thinktank Theos
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Uthman
02-27-2010, 03:19 PM
Comment by Inayat Bunglawala:

Muslims cast few votes for Tories


As a general election looms, David Cameron should be on a charm offensive and not skipping key community events.

As Nick Spencer highlighted yesterday on Cif, research carried out by his Theos thinktank has found that UK Muslims are three times more likely to vote for the Labour party than the Conservatives. The Theos/ComRes research found that:
"If there were a general election tomorrow, 35% of voting Muslims (meaning those Muslims who claim they are more likely than not to vote) would vote Labour. This compares with 22% of voting Christians and 23% of the entire voting population. By comparison, whereas 30% of the voting population would tick the Conservative box, only 13% of voting Muslims would do so."
The Labour party had traditionally been the party of choice for most Muslims but this support was seen to have drastically reduced in the wake of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, with the main beneficiaries being the Liberal Democrats. In 2004, an ICM poll for the Guardian found that voting intentions among UK Muslims was Lib Dem (41%), Labour (32%) and Conservative (16%).

The Tories failed at the time to gain from Muslim disenchantment with the Labour party, almost certainly because they were viewed – entirely correctly – as being enthusiastic supporters of both wars. What is more interesting is that the Tories are still failing to draw away significant Muslim support from Labour despite David Cameron's recent attempts to position the party as being more inclusive of minority groups.

Last night, the Muslim Council of Britain – the UK's largest Islamic umbrella body – held a gala dinner in London at which the Labour party was represented by the justice secretary, Jack Straw and the communities secretary, John Denham. The Lib Dem party leader, Nick Clegg, was also present. As elections are fast approaching this is perhaps not so very surprising. What was surprising, however, was that no frontbencher from the Conservative party deemed it worthwhile attending this event, which brought together more than 400 key figures from the UK's diverse Muslim communities.

The Tory no-show was a shame, as I think they would have strongly agreed with the keynote speaker, Professor Tariq Ramadan, as he emphasised to the audience the importance of what he called the "three Ls": loyalty, law and language. Loyalty, according to Ramadan, was not the false loyalty of unquestioning support for government policies. It was a more precious loyalty based on a concern for the well-being of all British citizens and being prepared to loudly criticise government policies when necessary. Similarly, the wisdom of Ramadan's insistence on working to uphold the equality of all citizens before the law would, one hopes, have been appreciated by Tory ears.

The Theos research appears to confirm that UK Muslim support for Labour is on the increase once again after a torrid few years under the Blairite former cabinet ministers Ruth Kelly and her successor at the Communities and Local Government (CLG) department, Hazel Blears.

Denham, who inherited the CLG role following the not-so-tragic resignation of Blears last summer over the expenses scandal, is very popular in Muslim communities, not least because he, along with Robin Cook, was one of the very few ministers who actually resigned their government positions rather than vote in support of the Iraq war.

Additionally, since his appointment at the CLG, Denham has made clear that the government no longer wishes all UK Muslims to be viewed through the prism of terrorism and the security threat. His speech last night, reiterated some key points he made to a Prevent conference at the end of last year which noted that the foremost worries of many Muslim families were very much the same as those of other families right across the country:
"While al-Qaida-inspired terrorism is a serious problem which needs to be tackled it must never been seen as the defining issue for British Muslims; or for the government's relationship with Muslim communities nationally or locally; or for public agencies like the police or for the media. I know, and you know, that the typical Muslim family – like families across the country – is much more concerned about jobs, housing and education than they are about violent extremism. And for the vast majority of Muslims, as for members of other faiths, their faith is a source of comfort, inspiration and strong values – not a call to violence."
Denham's observation concerning Muslim families certainly rings true to me. And with the latest polls showing that we may be heading for a hung parliament, the Conservative party leadership could yet come to regret their needlessly offensive snub last night.

Source

Inayat Bunglawala is the founder and chair of Muslims4UK,a group set up to celebrate the UK's democratic traditions and promote active Muslim engagement in our society.

He is also a spokesperson at the Muslim Council of Britain and has been active in many UK Islamic organisations since he joined The Young Muslims UK in 1987. He has written pieces about Islam and current affairs over the past few years for The Times, Daily Telegraph, The Guardian, Daily Express, The Observer and The Sun.

In August 2005, Inayat was appointed by the Home Office as the convenor of a working group on Tackling Extremism. He writes here in a personal capacity
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Supreme
02-27-2010, 11:06 PM
Statistics... so many statistics...

This is the first year I'm able to vote, and as a practising Christian, I shall vote for the Liberal Democrats. Not only do I believe them to be the most moral party around, I want a change from Labour that won't be a laughable joke like a Conservative government. So yes. Lib Dem for me. But I honestly don't think the religious vote will make much of a difference at all.

No party is really friendly or hostile to religious groups, bar the BNP. But they have no chance.
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Uthman
03-02-2010, 07:31 PM
Multiracial Britain won't vote Tory
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Amadeus85
03-03-2010, 11:03 AM
Are there still Jacobits in UK?
The catholic monarchists, the only resonable choice to vote for a christian.
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