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KAding
05-14-2013, 08:27 PM
US shale oil supply shock shifts global power balance
A steeper-than-expected rise in US shale oil reserves is about to change the global balance of power between new and existing producers, a report says.
Over the next five years, the US will account for a third of new oil supplies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The US will change from the world's leading importer of oil to a net exporter.
Demand for oil from Middle-East oil producers is set to slow as a result.
"North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world," said IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven.
The surge in US production will reshape the whole industry, according to the IEA, which made the prediction in its closely-watched bi-annual report examining trends in oil supply and demand over the next five years.
The IEA said it expected the US to overtake Russia as the world's biggest gas producer by 2015 and to become "all but self-sufficient" in its energy needs by about 2035.
The rise in US production means the world's reliance on oil from traditional oil producing countries in the Middle East, which make up Opec (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), would end soon, according to the report.

Slower growth
US production is set to grow by 3.9 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from 2012 to 2018, accounting for some two-thirds of the predicted growth in traditional non-Opec production, according to the IEA.
Meanwhile, global oil demand is set to increase by 8% which would be met mainly by non-Opec supplies, the report said
The IEA still expects production capacity among traditional Opec suppliers in the Middle East to continue to grow over the next five years, but at a slower rate.
Opec capacity, which counts for 35% of today's global oil output, is expected to rise by 1.75 million bpd to 36.75 million bpd in 2018, about 750,000 bpd less than predicted in the IEA's 2012 forecast.
The IEA cites the "growing insecurity in North and Sub-Saharan Africa" in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings as a key reason for the slowdown.
"The regional fallout from the 'Arab Spring' is taking a toll on investment and capacity growth," the IEA said.

Fracking
The sharp rise in US oil production is largely thanks to shale oil, a product many have hailed as the saviour of the US energy market.
Fracking, the process of blasting water at high pressure into shale rock to release oil (or gas) held within it, has become widespread in the US.
But critics of shale oil point to environmental concerns such as high water use and possible water contamination, the release of methane and, to a lesser extent, earth tremors caused by drilling.
The process has been banned in France, while the UK recently lifted a moratorium on drilling for shale gas.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22524597
Certainly an interesting development. It will be interesting to see how this impacts US policy in the Middle East in particular. I don't expect many changes, as energy needs is only a small reason why the US does what it does.
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جوري
05-14-2013, 08:49 PM
format_quote Originally Posted by KAding
Fracking
Saw a program on how this process causes earth quakes and other 'natural' disasters .. let's hope they do it, live and let live!


best,
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Sir Fluffy
05-14-2013, 09:56 PM
format_quote Originally Posted by KAding
Certainly an interesting development. It will be interesting to see how this impacts US policy in the Middle East in particular. I don't expect many changes, as energy needs is only a small reason why the US does what it does.
Let me inform you on one thing. The person who said money makes the world go round is a total LIAR!
Cause in reality it is oil that creates the currency. Petroleum plays a bigger role in political decision making then you think as it is highly profitable and fills the pockets of the dudes in Congress.

I shall leave you with a bizarre note quote of wisdom....
"You know d*** well that America does not want to enslave all Arabs. Just the ones who have oil." Stan Smith

Despite the fact that came from a comedic cartoon it is highly true. Oil means money and money rules political thinking, not morals or ethics, just money.
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KAding
05-14-2013, 10:36 PM
format_quote Originally Posted by Sir Fluffy
Despite the fact that came from a comedic cartoon it is highly true. Oil means money and money rules political thinking, not morals or ethics, just money.
Yes, of course business and economic interests are an important part of political thinking. But oil is only a small part of that, overall stability and a good economic (read: capitalist) climate are more important for US business interests. Oil, even oil from countries 'hostile' to the US, will reach the world market one way or another, which means that the US will be able to buy it anyway. This way true for Iraqi oil in the past and it is true for Iranian and Venezuelan oil now.

US policy with regard to Israel is not motivated by oil. Neither are the occasional US drone strikes in Somalia/Yemen. Nor is US involvement in Afghanistan motivated by oil. So I do not see how this will impact US policy in the Muslim world. Ideological and geo-political considerations are A LOT more important than many people realize.

I shall leave you with a bizarre note quote of wisdom....
"You know d*** well that America does not want to enslave all Arabs. Just the ones who have oil." Stan Smith
So then you believe the US will no longer want to 'enslave' Arab countries that produce oil? After all, they will be a net exporter of oil themselves in the near future!
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Sir Fluffy
05-14-2013, 11:41 PM
format_quote Originally Posted by KAding
Yes, of course business and economic interests are an important part of political thinking. But oil is only a small part of that, overall stability and a good economic (read: capitalist) climate are more important for US business interests. Oil, even oil from countries 'hostile' to the US, will reach the world market one way or another, which means that the US will be able to buy it anyway. This way true for Iraqi oil in the past and it is true for Iranian and Venezuelan oil now.

US policy with regard to Israel is not motivated by oil. Neither are the occasional US drone strikes in Somalia/Yemen. Nor is US involvement in Afghanistan motivated by oil. So I do not see how this will impact US policy in the Muslim world. Ideological and geo-political considerations are A LOT more important than many people realize.
What does Americas actions on Yemen have to do with anything? That is about attacking possible threats to security, it i snot oil motivated. The influence over Iraq and Saudi Arabia is what I am talking about. Profit is placed far above any other priority in corrupt government and even war itself. Most wars are performed in such a way to maximize profiteering from the spoils and resource control (Iraq for example).
As for Israel the policy has always been the fact that Israel is the only non Muslim source of reach America has in the Middle East. Why do you see Israels using American and German made weapons? It is nothing but a testing ground. Why on earth do you think the war in Afghanistan has been prolonged? Every since these wars the production and spending in private and government military contracts went up. Israeli weaponry goes hand in hand with German and American and we profit from the usage of it by the Israeli Jews. When I say profit I should say that the US and Germany make a "killing" in it, literally. I have a friend who deals with these bizarre military private services so I know it all to well. Afghanistan is getting ready to see the release of the XM-25mm semi-auto CDTE this year. The weapon funding went up last year and made an earlier schedule after the release of the XM307 in Afghanistan. The mandate of this comes from lobbying in politics which means that politicians are getting paid, A LOT for these death machines. PMSC's are very lucrative and are one of the main reasons America and Germany has spent so much useless time in wars and the support of Israel. These are billionaire businesses and should I mention Jordan is one of the third largest in the loop? Is it ironic that Palestinians whose territories cross the Jordanian and Israeli borderlines both come from countries who acquire some of the biggest military contracts?
War is not a battle....it is a supermarket.

So then you believe the US will no longer want to 'enslave' Arab countries that produce oil? After all, they will be a net exporter of oil themselves in the near future!
I do not understand the second sentence. But the US will do to Arab nations what it did to Afghanistan in the 80's. They will use the country to fulfill their own goals and once it is done they leave. AMERICA is the one who left Afghanistan in shambles after the Soviet affair. No further support was given and numerous fighters were left with a broken country they fixed themselves including a man of a certain name I won't mention. Everything America does is for personal gain and this applies (although not to a greater extent) to many other Western countries and a few Asian.
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