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View Full Version : Historical Khurasaan after 9/11 and US/NATO Bilateral Security Agreement



syed_z
05-13-2014, 07:30 PM
Asalaam O Alaikum, this is just my personal analysis on the War in Afghanistan and its implications on the regional politics. Feel free to share your thoughts. I had actually written this for a blog in March this year and my aim was to share this before major events start taking place in the upcoming months which will make a considerable impact on this part of the Ummah i.e. in Central and South Asia. The reason why I chose the name Khurasaan for the topic is because the regional politics in this part is mainly influenced by the US/NATO alliance's occupation of Afghanistan and great Scholars like Sheikh Imran Hosein and Dr. Israar Ahmad from Pakistan (may Allah have mercy on his soul) have referred to Afghanistan as the 'Heart of Khurasaan' This place has gained its fame for being the bed of resistance in the Ummah which has resisted occupiers trying to colonize it especially in our times like Britain, USSR and the present US/NATO alliance on behalf of the Zionist State of Israel. This word Khurasaan has appeared in one of the Hadith of Prophet (saw) and legendary scholars like Imam Ibn Kathir have recorded it in their Kitab Al Fitan (Book of the End of Times), “Abu Hurairah reported that the Prophet (‘alaihi al-Salam) said: Black banners shall emerge from Khorasan (i.e. an area which is now included in Afghanistan, Pakistan and a little in Iran and Central Asia), and no force will be able to stop them until they are inserted in Aelia (Jerusalem).” Dr. Israar Ahmed had said that the entire modern day Afghanistan and its bordering areas i.e. Western Pakistan and some parts of Eastern Iran are all included in this Historical Khurasaan. The events taking place at the moment and in the very near future in and around Khurasaan will eventually shape the upcoming events in the Ummah. My analysis is just to share what happened in this region after 9/11 which is linked with what took place before 9/11 and which can help us understand what are the dangers being faced by Muslim states bordering occupied Afghanistan and give us the idea what is to come.



Historical Khurasaan after 9/11 and US/NATO Security Agreement

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said ''Our position is very clear. Our preferred option is to deploy a training mission to Afghanistan after 2014.''
http://www.dawn.com/news/1088535/afg...says-nato-head


After 12 years of fighting and a wave of terrorism that has engulfed the South Asian region mainly Afghanistan and Pakistan, the defeated US Led NATO forces have achieved nothing and are exiting as the UN mandate comes to an end. In their struggle to eliminate the Taliban thousands of their own troops have been killed, and now as they prepare to exit the Taliban are much the same or even stronger than before. The exit plan however has been carefully designed and does not include a complete withdrawal of each and every military personnel. The US led NATO alliance has decided to keep 10 to 15 thousand troops with military advisors, not to forget the presence of private security firms (such as notorious Black Water) who would accompany them, as part of a Bilateral Security Agreement which if signed by the Afghan government will allow them to remain for an unlimited period of time. Karzai who was installed by the foreign forces has suddenly decided to make a U turn before his final presidency term ends this year by rejecting to sign this agreement and has stepped up criticism in his speeches against the foreign forces. This abrupt move after 12 years against those who installed him may be to avoid a fateful end at the hands of the Taliban and their supporters and to avoid the humiliation by the next government, a humiliation worst than that being faced by Musharraf of Pakistan for continuous collaboration with US. This move of Karzai mirrors exactly that of Nurul Maliki’s in Iraq before the final US military withdrawal from there. The purpose as claimed by US and NATO for continuing their presence is to train the Afghan forces in counter terrorism tactics and at times even assist them in conducting joint counter offensive against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Such move as claimed by the leaders of the Western World is for the continuation of their struggle to establish peace in this region, a promise that was made 12 years ago when they had entered Afghanistan.

The US Led NATO Alliance had occupied Afghanistan in the wake of September 11, 2001 attacks in the USA to hunt down Al Qaeda operatives whom they believed were behind these attacks and were being harbored by Afghan Taliban Government. Regardless of the weak facts which US Govt has provided to its people to make them believe this was an Al Qaeda job, there is much more stronger evidence shared by 9/11 Truth and antiwar movements inside US proving that these attacks must be an inside job by the then Republican Administration of George Bush Jr to further accomplish their regional goals in Middle East and South Asia.

As the exit plan has entered its implementation phase, Muslims on both sides of the Durand Line (border between Afghanistan and Pakistan) take a sigh of relief, the Anti-Taliban Karzai Alliance and the Secular pro Western media lobby and political parties in Pakistan fear that a complete withdrawal will cause the region to destabilize further. Anyone with some common sense would disagree to this as one can easily compare the regional situation prevailing before and after 9/11. The entire region destabilized only after foreign forces decided to enter Afghanistan thus causing a wave of terror to spread in both countries and gradually increasing on both sides of the Durand Line. This wave of terrorism, mainly in the face of suicidal attacks and bombings in market places, masjids, schools, government and civilian buildings, which has swept across this region mainly Afghanistan and Pakistan, was alien to the people living here till the foreign forces decided to make their base in Afghanistan.


Why and How of Taliban

Prior to 9/11 and after Soviet withdrawal, the Afghan Taliban movement originated to establish law and order and eliminate injustice throughout Afghanistan, with the formation of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which in due process was militarily supported by Pakistani Armed Forces with the financial assistance of Saudi Arabia. While India, together with Iran, Tajikistan and Russia, had lend support to the Northern Alliance (an alliance of different Afghan ethnic groups), whom the USA also supported later on to overthrow Taliban Govt. India in its rivalry towards Pakistan supported the Alliance as India fears that a Pakistan friendly Taliban Government in Kabul will strengthen the freedom fighting groups in Pakistan to launch attacks in Kashmir, a Muslim majority state illegally occupied by Indian armed forces for more than 60 years. Iran in its rivalry against the Saudi funding and the anti-Shia factions (Arab and Pakistani fighters from Sipah Sahaba) that were initially part of the Taliban movement supported the Northern Alliance. States like Russia, China and Tajikistan had supported the alliance against Taliban as the movement had support from groups such as Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and East Turkistan Movement who want to establish their bases in Northern Afghanistan which they would then use as a launching pad to destabilize Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Xinjiang province of China and Central Asian states which Russia fears could strengthen CIA/Saudi funded rebels in the Caucasus mountain of Russia, in Dagestan.

After 9/11 when USA decided to attack, Pakistan’s military leadership under Musharraf decided to join US and its allies. The rejection by the Taliban government of Saudi demand to hand over Bin Laden, who at that time was outspoken critic of the alliance of House of Saud with US, even made the Saudis withdraw their financial support. Naturally after the fall of the Taliban Government in Kabul their several leaders sought refuge in Pakistan the country they call their second home. Today, the insurgency inside Afghanistan is mainly being fought by Taliban led by Mullah Omar being the majority; Hizbe Islami Fighters led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Haqqani Group, whom the USA has termed as Haqqani Network, the strong support of Taliban in the Tribal Areas (FATA Region) inside Pakistan. The Taliban are suspected to operate the insurgency from Pakistani territory as alleged by Kabul denied by Pakistan. Their main demands are 2 i.e. immediate withdrawals of each and every foreign personnel from Afghan territory and the step down of the foreign backed Karzai Government. Both demands seem legitimate as the occupation of Afghanistan has no basis whatsoever. The Taliban had absolutely no part in the 9/11 attacks and the Karzai Administration came in to power as a result of Northern Alliance facilitating US illegal occupation of Afghanistan against their opponents.

The big mistake that Taliban have come to realize over the course of years after US occupation of Afghanistan, is their relations with the neighboring countries had been severed due to them hosting movements who wanted to destabilize those countries. Suhail Shaheen of Kabul Times in 2009 revealed that The Taliban's leader, in his message, assured Afghanistan's neighboring countries that the Taliban will not harm them if they gain political power but rather will develop relations based on mutual cooperation. He said: "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan wants to maintain good and positive relations with all neighbors based on mutual respect and open a new chapter of good neighborliness of mutual cooperation and development." In the same tone, he assured China, India and Russia that the Taliban is going to play positive role in establishing peace and stability in the region. He added: “We consider the whole region as a common home against colonialism and want to play our role the peace and stability of the region." In the same direction on October 7, the Taliban issued a statement on the eighth anniversary of the American aerial attack on Afghanistan, which further elucidated the Taliban's new policy: "We announce to all, that our aim is obtainment of independence and establishment of an Islamic system. We did not have any intention to harm other countries including Europe nor do we have such an agenda today." http://www.onislam.net/english/polit...10/439893.html


Insurgency inside Pakistan

Pakistan is the only Muslim country in the world to have nuclear weapons. The insurgency inside Pakistan, on its own side of the Durand Line i.e. the tribal areas is mainly being fought by several factions falling under the Umbrella of Tehreek I Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or the Pakistani Taliban. The Pakistani army under US pressure has engaged more than 100,000 of its soldiers inside the tribal area where US believes Al Qaeda Members are seeking refuge. In their bid to capture these Al Qaeda members (who are actually Arabs/Chechens/Uzbeks who fled Afghanistan after 9/11) on the orders of Gen. Musharraf, and the refusal of many local tribal elders to hand them over, the army has engaged itself in a never ending series of battles which began in 2003 and continues till present. Pak Intelligence believes that many of these fighters are locals from Tribal Areas who oppose Pakistan’s Pro American policies, but many of them include proxies being provided arms and training from Afghanistan by Afghan intelligence in alliance with Indian RAW and CIA. For example 1500 Afghanis were recruited by CIA to fight in Libya against Gaddafi and the evidence that CIA recruits Afghanis and sends them to Balochistan province in Pakistan who are responsible for the violence there. http://www.nation.com.pk/Politics/31...fight-in-Libya
http://www.thenewstribe.com/2012/03/.../#.T_W7MoFWNXM

Due to dire economic circumstances in Afghanistan and its surrounding areas such as Tajikistan, many males are willing to get recruited as mercenaries to go fight. Pakistan army has caught these Central Asians several times during military operations. The bombings and suicidal attacks on the other hand are work of a few of the extremist factions from amongst the several factions that have joined the Pakistani Taliban ranks against a common enemy i.e. Pakistani military. Such groups were exposed to have links with CIA as Raymond Davis; a CIA agent was busted in Lahore and his close ties with the TTP faction such as Lashkar e Jhangvi were revealed during the investigations. Davis was instrumental in recruiting young people from Punjab for the Taliban to fuel the bloody insurgency. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a banned sectarian outfit is known for fueling the sectarian war between Shias and Sunnis inside Pakistan. http://tribune.com.pk/story/122105/c...cal-militants/

The Pak government and the leadership of majority Pro Taliban groups however have signed several peace agreements from 2003 till present, in their bid to end the fighting, this is due to both sides realizing that this is diverting their attention from the main enemy. The Pro Taliban groups want to focus on their fight in Afghanistan and Pakistan Army and Government want to focus on solving internal issues and keeping their borders safe especially with India. But these peace talks could not hold mainly due to US pressure on Pakistan’s army and a few reluctant factions from among the TTP. The demands of TTP's central leadership with the Pak Government are an immediate halt to CIA drone strikes inside their territory and for withdrawal of Pakistani Army from the tribal belt, whose deployment is considered by them as an act of war. It is no doubt that an understanding was reached between the George W. Bush administration and the then President Musharraf of Pakistan under which the CIA was allowed to carry out drone strikes in Pakistan to target Al Qaeda operatives. Pakistani army leadership however shifted from approval of the U.S. drone campaign to strong opposition after 2008. The reason for the shift was that the CIA dramatically expanded the target list in 2008 from Arab or Al Qaeda to supporters of the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban. Such moves kept fueling the insurgency in Pakistan with no end to it in sight. The reason why US pressures Pak army to fight them is due to the deep sympathy of these local tribes that lies with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The actual reason however is the destabilization of Pakistan by keeping the army engaged with these groups so that armed forces become weak, resulting in division of the country and taking over its nuclear program, a threat to Israel and that is the ultimate prize.


US/NATO desire Permanent Base

To achieve their destabilization plan for Pakistan and regional ambitions directed towards China, Russia and Iran, the US military alliance desire a permanent base inside Afghanistan. The current ongoing withdrawal of their large army is necessary as USA and NATO countries cannot afford this expensive war that the occupation is costing them while they have financial crisis looming back home with increasing number of protests demanding to end the war and solve the financial crisis first.To achieve this aim of having an affordable permanent presence the US has tried negotiating indirectly through its back door channels with the Taliban, however these have failed due to Taliban’s clear cut demand that all foreign forces withdraw immediately. http://spearheadresearch.org/phpBB3/...hp?f=11&t=2612

It was in 2009 when US negotiators had offered the Taliban leadership through Mullah Wakil Ahmed Mutawakkil (former Taliban foreign minister) that if they accept the presence of NATO troops in Afghanistan; they would be given the governorship of six provinces in the south and northeast. Such offer was rejected by Taliban as their demand is to negotiate only if all foreign forces left. It was for this same purpose of achieving some sort of a break through with the Taliban that they had been allowed to open their office in Qatar in 2011 as a ‘Government in exile’ which angered Karzai and all anti-Taliban parties in Kabul. The US tried holding direct talks with them in Qatar however such effort did not bear any fruit either as they continued to hold on to the withdrawal demands. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCont...ar-report.aspx

The aim of US to let them open their office abroad was to reach some sort of conciliation outside the influence of Pakistan military establishment whom the Pentagon allege is influential in controlling the Taliban insurgency.


Breaking Taliban from within

After its failure to achieve some sort of conciliation directly with the Taliban the USA is supportive of a break through to be reached between the Kabul government and Taliban as long as this includes some sort of US presence. In order to achieve this goal USA aims to have a Nurul Maliki style government installed in Kabul, which would include a coalition of a splintered Afghan Taliban and supporters of Karzai administration. The aim of these talks with Taliban by the US or by Kabul, along with fighting, have always been to divide the Taliban from within in order to weaken them, and then give a chance for the splintered ones to join Kabul’s corrupt government and form Nurul Maliki style govt of Iraq. A government which would be dependent on US and NATO countries, for its economic and military support against the remaining ones who will obviously choose to continue fighting. This formula was successful in Iraq when the extremist religious Muslim groups in Iraq whom the Western Media terms 'Al Qaeda’ forced the Iraqi Sunnis to join the opposing camps of the sectarian Shia government in Baghdad. The Al Qaeda card was played by US which resulted in the formation of Al Sahwa (The Awakening Movement), Sunni groups allied with US forces to fight Al Qaeda fighters and suicide bombers. http://www.globalresearch.ca/u-s-con...-iraqi/5368500

It is the same card being played by Al Maliki in Anbar Province at the moment, to keep the Sunnis from forming a united alliance against the sectarian government in Baghdad. However, keeping the dynamics of Afghan society in view such formula might not be a success in Afghanistan.


US pushing for India’s military involvement

As USA timeline for withdrawal ends this year, the think tanks in Washington are already suggesting that India should now play a more direct role in supporting the new Afghan Government. The Northern Alliance which has now reformed itself in to a political group called National Front of Afghanistan of which a new President Candidate Abdullah Abdullah is part of, has the highest chance of leading the Afghan elections and winning the Presidency, which means he would be giving the signature for the Security Agreement. The elections that took place in 2009 were found to be rigged, which tells that the upcoming ones in April won’t be any free or fairer looking at the current security situation.

The USA and NATO as they struggle to get the signature need a partner to assist them in Afghanistan as the alliance is now moving from having Afghanistan a top priority to Europe’s borders with Russia becoming their next top priority after crisis in Ukraine. Several Eastern European states bordering Russia, who have troops serving in NATO mission in Afghanistan want to get out of there asap as securing their own borders have become the top most priority. Karzai’s trip to India and his request to get military support is already being considered in India as BJP, the nationalist Hindu extremist party and known for its Anti Muslim and Anti Pakistan stance, gears up to take the lead in the upcoming Indian elections. http://www.firstpost.com/politics/ha...d-1281195.html

After his trip to India he has taken a trip to Iran as well requesting further cooperation, which Iran has promised to give fearing the Saudi connections with the Taliban as the withdrawal begins.

Al Qaeda Bogeyman in Tribal Areas of Pakistan

The pretext for the residue US NATO forces to stay in Afghanistan is their favorite Al Qaeda excuse so they could closely monitor and interfere in Pakistan as the majority of Pakistanis consider an Islamic obligation to struggle against Israel and India, both illegally occupying Muslim territories. The Pakistan’s Nuclear and missile system that has Israel in its range and is under the Secular Military needs to be compromised before it ends up in the hands of the religious minded majority. “Al Qaida continues to operate in Pakistan’s federally administered tribal areas and, to a lesser extent, areas of eastern Afghanistan,” said General Lloyd J Austin, Commander of the US Central Command said in his testimony before House Armed Services Committee. However after the threat of Al Qaeda he said “Central to Pakistan’s struggles is its poor economy and burgeoning youth bulge. Given these conditions, radicalism is on the rise in settled areas and threatens increased militant activity and insurgency in parts of Pakistan where the sway of the state traditionally has been the strongest,” In addition he also mentioned how important it was to remain in this region as “Long-standing tensions between Pakistan and India also threaten regional stability as both states have substantial military forces arrayed along their borders and the disputed Kashmir Line of Control,” http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=235525

US wants to play Negotiator

US presence in the region is also due to an active role of a negotiator that it desires to play between regional states so they always remain dependent on him. The US is already playing an active role between India and Pakistan, between Pakistan and Anti Taliban Afghan alliance. They are playing an active role between the BLA army and other separatist groups who are fighting to create a ‘Free Balochistan’ by carving their state out of the Balochistan province of Pakistan and Sistan-Balochistan of Iran. US congress has already passed a bill to support separation of Balochistan from Pakistan triggering a countrywide protest in Pakistan. http://www.thenewstribe.com/2012/03/.../#.T_W7MoFWNXM

The USA wants to play the role of a negotiator not only between Pakistan and its Baloch Rebels but also between Iran and its Sunni Baloch rebels who want to carve a Sunni state out of Iran’s eastern province. Iran has blamed USA and Britain to be supporting these rebels. http://www.onislam.net/english/polit...ia/447129.html

In its tit for tat against Russia supporting the independence of Crimea, US already supporting the Xinjiang separatist movement might be planning to play a more direct negotiator’s role between China and its separatist movement should it continue its presence in Afghanistan. This map published by the Armed Forces Journal for US army and taught in NATO colleges gives a glimpse of the regional ambition of the their alliance to divide this region along tribal, ethnic, sectarian lines. http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/pe...d-borders-map/


Israel’s alliance with India

It was during the 1970s when Indian Raw began to strengthen its ties with the Mossad and collaborated to destroy Pakistan’s nuclear program, unacceptable to India just as the creation of Pakistan has always been. On the other hand the Israelis cannot accept a nuclear armed Islamic country with close ties to its own Arab neighbors. The then President of Pakistan Zia ul Haq through its diplomatic channels in Washington conveyed his assurance to the Israelis that the nuclear program will not be used against you. It may be due to this reason that Washington’s stance towards Pakistan’s nuclear program is different as compared to others in the Middle East, like Syria, Iraq, Libya and Iran. It may also be due to this reason why CIA funds Pakistan’s secular Army Generals and ISI to maintain control over the religious parties and groups who are influential in the country, so to avoid the nuclear from falling in to their hands. However, Israel and India are not taking chances depending solely on US strategy and so there is no way that they will leave Pakistan based only on assurances. Therefore in alliance with the Afghan Intelligence they are spreading a wave of terror in the face of suicide bombers and by infiltrating proxies in North West and Balochistan is necessary to expedite the process of disintegration of Pakistan. http://www.rediff.com/news/2003/sep/08spec.htm

Pakistan’s military on the other hand then continues its support for Taliban, which was abandoned by now retired Musharraf and provides them shelters so India and thus Israel do not get a chance to strengthen themselves in Afghanistan and destabilize Pakistan. Pakistan does not want to be encircled by enemies from both sides of its borders. Bruce Riedel, a 4-president adviser at White House makes a startling disclosure in his latest book, “Avoiding Armageddon: America, India and Pakistan to the Brink and Back, that “in Afghanistan US and its allied troops are fighting proxy war with Pakistan” He quotes President Richard Nixon’s remarks about Pakistan “Those who want a more peaceful world, in the generation to come, will forever be in your (Pakistan) debt” hinting at destruction of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. Riedel confesses that US is pushing for Pakistan’s exclusion from world community. It was US that pushed “India Israel military entente in 2000”, writes author. http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=215131

Conciliation between all factions in Afghanistan with help of China and Russia

Wary of fighting a war like the US led NATO and unable to defeat the Taliban, Karzai has already been working to negotiate with the Taliban since the establishment of the Afghan High Peace Council setup few years back specifically for this purpose. The Afghan high peace council has released over 500 Afghan and Pakistani Taliban prisoners during the past one and half year a move criticized by the US. http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/1...ban-prisoners/

Such moves have prompted some from the former members of Taliban Government to agree in holding informal meetings with peace council members who aim at making them enter the current political process to form a joint government governed by Islamic System, a main demand of those Taliban members, a demand which is highly doubtful will be accepted by corrupt Afghan Govt officials. These meetings have exposed the slight division among the Taliban, who operate the insurgency from Pakistani territory. After 12 years of fighting, efforts are being made by Kabul through the Afghan Peace council to meet with some former ministers from the Taliban in and outside of the country to begin a dialogue process, for example a recent meeting in UAE which was held in a peaceful atmosphere among the 2 parties. But the main faction of Taliban, leading the insurgency by Mullah Omar completely rejects this. They do not consider the Kabul government authentic at all with whom any sort of dialogue could be held. http://www.dawn.com/news/1088760/afg...aliban-faction

Their demands are that illegitimate Government in Kabul steps down immediately. Even though the demands are correct as this government was formed as a result of the occupation of Afghanistan which has no basis whatsoever, this attitude of the Taliban however pushes the government in Kabul to seek refuge in the Bilateral Security Agreement with the West.
Russia and China have high concerns and are willing to play a more direct role due to their fear of insurgency being spread in their own territory from Afghanistan as US withdrawal started. http://www.afghanistantimes.af/news_details.php?id=6291

The Taliban sent an open letter to Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on 15 September. 2009. (Member countries include China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan). They ensured these countries that Afghanistan will not be used as a launching pad to attacks in their countries. This pragmatic and diplomatic approach which was lacking at the time when their newly government in Afghanistan was formed isolated them in their own region. Considering this approach of the Taliban who are fighting against the same colonialists who want to break up Russia and China, these states should play a more direct role in bringing peace to Afghanistan and influence the upcoming government in Kabul not to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement which would allow permanent stay to the Zionist US/NATO forces.

China known for its friendly relations and strong ties with Pakistan can influence Pakistan to get the Taliban to sit on table with those factions of the Northern Alliance who will be willing to have a political settlement independent from the Western Influence. Russia and China can ensure Northern Alliance that if they are ready to negotiate with the Taliban truly for the sake of peace then they will not experience the same fate at the hands of the Taliban after US withdrawal as that of Najibullah after Soviet withdrawal in 1980s.
The political groups in Kabul and Afghan Intelligence have a very strong anti Pakistan stance and are involved in spreading insurgency inside Pakistan due to Pakistan’s support for the Taliban. If they can somehow assure Pakistan, under influence from China and Russia, that India will not use Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan then Pakistan will truly be willing to support a peace process between Taliban and their opposition.

Worst scenario if the US led NATO alliance do get the signature for the agreement from the new Afghan government, then we can expect the fight to continue in historical Khurasaan and its environs. However, as Russia has become more conscious after Ukraine crises and is building its military power on NATO’s borders and China has been alerted after the disappearance of Malaysian Air lines (with Chinese majority on board) and the terrorist attack in one of its subway stations, it seems the Western Military alliance has diverted much of its concentration away from Khurasaan. This diversion of attention towards Russia and China would be an opportunity for the Muslims struggling against the Western imperial agenda in and around Khurasaan to keep their differences aside in the name of Allah (swt) and his Messenger (saw) and strengthen themselves.
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