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Glac09
02-14-2016, 11:05 PM
On Friday, the major powers agreed to a “cessation” of hostilities in Syria to begin within a week. Billed as great success, the agreement is unlikely to make much difference on the ground as Saudi Arabia and Turkey continue to agitate for a ground war in Syria and President Assad announces that he will not stop fighting until he has retaken all of Syria. Abdel Bari Atwan asks what is really going on behind the scenes?

The Syrian crisis appears to be moving into a crucial new phase as joint Russian/Iranian/Syrian efforts begin to produce results for the regime. Even as world powers met, first in Brussels and then in Munich, Russian jets attacked Tal Rifaat in Aleppo province and towns in northern Homs.

The “cessation of hostilities” agreement has not been signed by either the Syrian regime or the opposition; it may in fact simply be giving pro-Assad elements the time they need to complete the encirclement of Aleppo, one of the most important cities in Syria, advancing their path towards Assad’s stated goal which is to retake the whole of Syria.

Assad’s new found confidence appears to stem from strategic cunning developed with Moscow. The US has described his recent comments as “deluded.”

As for the West and its regional allies, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, they will have to consider whether to step up their military response to the increased strength of the regime, backed by Russia and Iran, or wave the white flag and accept that the opposition will never prevail.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan no longer conceals his fury as he views the rapid changes taking place in Syria. Regime forces have begun to take back control over the border with Turkey, cutting supply lines to the opposition and meanwhile more than 70,000 new Syrian refugees from Aleppo are waiting at the border in the hope of finding sanctuary in Turkey – which is already home to 2.5 million Syrian migrants.

“We do not have the word ‘idiot’ written on our foreheads,” he said in a speech in Ankara during which he threatened to send millions of Syrian refugees into the EU. “Don’t think that the planes and buses are there for nothing,” he added.

A European analyst responded sarcastically to this comment: “Why send them to us, send them rather to your allies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf first.”

The Saudis are agitating for a military solution in Syria as their long-term support for the opposition has failed to produce the desired results. The most logical way to do this would be via Turkey, where a buffer zone would be created on the border allowing the start of ground operations. Turkey has acknowledged that Saudi Arabia has sent troops and fighters jets to the US-controlled Incirlik military base.

Russia has used the window created by peace talks to gain time and Moscow has already said it may not stop its air strikes in Syria even if the cessation of hostilities agreement comes into effect. Its rationale is that Islamic State (ISIS) and al-Nusra fighters are not covered by the agreement and it will continue its fight against these elements. The West and its allies deny that Russia is targeting IS, claiming that most air strikes have hit opposition entities.

Vladmir Putin has vowed to stand by Damascus

President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that neither the defeat of IS nor the implementation of a ceasefire prior to a negotiated settlement for Syria are possible without closing the Syrian-Turkish border, cutting supplies to both the Syrian opposition and hard-line Islamic groups.

Saudi Arabia has said that it will not act unilaterally in Syria and is trying to prod the US into action but Washington has made it plain that it is not minded to step up its involvement. US Secretary of State, John Kerry chided Syrian opposition representatives recently: “Do you want me to go to war with Russia for you?”

The Iranians are as determined as the Russians to prevent the fall of Assad. General Mohammad Ali Jaafari said that a military invasion by Saudi forces would be “suicide.” Syrian foreign minister, Walid Al-Moualem, said that Saudi troops would return in wooden boxes if they entered Syrian territory without the authorization of the Government.

Leaked reports spoke of an agreement between Moscow and Damascus that any incursions into Syrian territory would be met with immediate force with no need to seek approval from senior leadership. Putin has even said that any foreign Arab or Western action in Syria would unleash the Third World War.

So how serious is Saudi Arabia about the military action it is threatening?

Riyadh would like to engage Iran in a direct confrontation but has been unable to do so as yet. Its 11 month campaign in Yemen failed to draw Tehran out from cover behind the Houthi forces it is backing. The Saudis have established an “Islamic Coalition,” ostensibly to combat IS; this overtly Sunni alliance has, as yet, produced no takers for a war with Iran in Syria with the exception of Bahrain and the UAE.

Tehran seemingly prefers to draw Riyadh into costly wars of attrition and Syria – where Iran’s allies already have the upper hand – will be a great deal more expensive than the Yemeni campaign which has already cost the kingdom upwards of $70 billion.

The hot-headed Prince Mohammad bin Salman, defence minister and deputy crown prince – whom many say is the power behind the throne – personally led the Saudi delegation to Nato on Wednesday and met with his US counterpart Ash Carter. There is little doubt that if Riyadh could persuade Washington to join it, it would immediately embark on a Syrian military adventure.

It has been agitating for regime change in Damascus for five years and has done everything in its power – with funding, arming and training the opposition – to achieve this aim but with little success. Riyadh faces loss of face and humiliation if it backs down over Syria and risks losing its regional status – possibly the tenure of the royal family could be adversely affected.

Washington, however, remains tepid; the report of Prince Mohammad’s meeting with Carter focusing on counter-terrorism efforts and affirming “the US commitment to the enduring defence partnership between the US and Saudi Arabia.”

The current situation in Syria can go three ways over the coming weeks:

First: the present escalation and brinksmanship may produce greater flexibility in the positions of both sides, leading to progress in negotiations in Geneva in two weeks’ time.

Second: Russia’s cunning strategies will succeed in gaining time, enabling Assad to recover Aleppo, and close the border with Turkey to insurgents and cut off the rebels’ supply lines.

Third: the United States agrees to back Saudi Arabia and Turkey in a direct intervention in Syria in a bid to reset the balance of power. In such a case, all out sectarian war, with the possibility of escalation into global war is almost certain.

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Abz2000
02-15-2016, 07:04 AM
format_quote Originally Posted by Glac09
As for the West and its regional allies, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, they will have to consider whether to step up their military response to the increased strength of the regime, backed by Russia and Iran, or wave the white flag and accept that the opposition will never prevail
A little more accurate factfinding and reporting from 5pillars uk would go a long way towards gaining a clearer picture of the events.
Everybody involved other than those with the largest financial investment appeared to have got the impression that this so-called cessation of hostilities/violence applied to everyone and the north american government stopped bombing the people of Syria during the lull for talks and reinforced that impression, as soon as it was apparent that a sort of agreement had been reached, the north american government began bombing again and refused to distribute aid in allepo or make it possible for other human groups to deliver aid due to it's incessant bombing, 5pillars makes them out to be the party eager to wave the white flag despite no other country other than north america having had more role or investment in the initial stages of destabilization and regime change in the intitiation of hostilities in syria than the north american government, with britain and france coming second and third. Russia too is now playing the blood game without heed for right or reason and will inshaAllah join the u.s and it's allies in their fate.


No Letup for ISIS in Syria Ceasefire Agreement: US Military


12 FEB 2016
Military.com*|*by Richard Sisk

The U.S. military will not change operations in Syria or participate with air drops in the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Aleppo region of Syria as a result of the potential ceasefire declared by world powers, the Pentagon said Friday.

"There are no immediate plans for the U.S. to be part of this effort,"*Navy*Capt.* Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman said of aid for Aleppo.
Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday that aid convoys by the United Nations World Food Program and other groups were expected to begin "immediately."

Davis said the U.S. military's efforts in Syria were focused on the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, which does not operate near Aleppo, and U.S. airstrikes would continue despite the temporary ceasefire agreement.* "We are there strictly to fight ISIL," Davis said, using another acronym for ISIS.[/B]

The U.S. will continue to strike at ISIS in Syria but in and around Aleppo "there is very little fire for us to cease," Davis said.

He said the U.S. did not conduct airstrikes in Syria against ISIS on Thursday, when the U.S., Russia and other powers meeting in Europe negotiated a ceasefire proposal, but added that the lull was a "coincidence."

At the start of the International Syria Support Group talks in Munich that were to continue this weekend, Secretary of State Kerry said that the Russians, the European Union and others were "unanimous" in agreeing that a temporary ceasefire in Syria should begin next week.
"What we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground," Kerry said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that most Russian airstrikes would probably stop next Friday but "terrorist" groups such as ISIS and the Al Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusra Front would continue to be hit. Whether other rebel groups, some of them supported by the U.S., would go along with the ceasefire was unclear.

The International Syria Support Group includes the Arab League, the European Union, the United Nations, and 17 countries, including the United States and Russia.Stefan de Mistura, the UN Special Envoy for Syria, said aid convoys to besieged areas could begin as early as Saturday.

"Once we get clearance by concerned parties, the UN and its humanitarian partners will be able to reach the civilians in need within the coming days," de Mistura said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg cautioned that "ceasefires are not always respected."

Shortly after Stoltenberg gave the warning, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said he was still committed to taking back territory in rebel hands.In an interview with Agency France Presse in Damascus, Assad said he intended to restore territory controlled by the government to the original borders and "this is a goal we are seeking to achieve without any hesitation. It makes no sense for us to say that we will give up any part.'

At the Pentagon, Davis said the only contacts the U.S. military had with their Russian counterparts involved the "deconfliction" of the separate air campaigns in Syria.However, there appeared to be a form of conflict in what Davis called the "Twitter wars" between the Russian Defense Ministry and*ArmyCol. Steve Warren, the spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve for Iraq and Syria.

In his must-see video briefings to the Pentagon, in e-mails, and on Twitter, Warren has called out the Russians for their indiscriminate bombing campaign in support of the Assad regime that has led to the humanitarian crisis in Aleppo.The Russians shot back by Tweet: "Col. Warren is to be disappointed--Rus aircraft didn't work near #ALEPPO yesterday. Nearest target was more than 20 km far from city."In his counter-Tweet, Warren said "Russia's tweets are wrong. Furthermore their bombing is reckless and indiscriminate and their efforts are strategically short-sighted."-- Richard Sisk can be reached at*richard.sisk@military.com

http://m.military.com/daily-news/201...-military.html

It is indeed sickening that 5th column uk glossed over these facts.

The kuffar criminals appear to be playing a "pass the blame ball game" while again the world watches expectantly and swithes sides till everyone is psychologically worn out while again Muslims lose their lives, this time however, unlike Iraq where the Muslims turned to every person they thought could help and didn't, the Muslims looked to Allah and the people of the world have had a clear chance to see the facts.
O Allah your promise to help those who turn to You and strive in Your cause within their means is indeed true and will surely be fulfilled.
Alaa inna nasrAllaahi qareeb.
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