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Khalid Saifullah
04-28-2016, 08:48 PM
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superiour and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.


Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less laywyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.


Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lifes each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.


Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with you phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.


3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.


Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.


Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countried can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.


Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.


Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at 10$ in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
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Serinity
04-28-2016, 09:22 PM
The only thing I am against is people trying to Imitate Allah's creation.
Reply

BilalKid
04-29-2016, 02:15 AM
Originally Posted by Serinity
The only thing I am against is people trying to Imitate Allah's creation.
which one?? ^o)
Reply

Serinity
04-29-2016, 07:22 AM
Originally Posted by BilalKid
which one?? ^o)
Human beings, animals, or any animate being.
Reply

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Theistic
04-29-2016, 11:32 AM
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superiour and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.


Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less laywyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.


Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lifes each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.


Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with you phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.


3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.


Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.


Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countried can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.


Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.


Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at 10$ in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
can you please share the source of this information?
Reply

Serinity
04-29-2016, 02:44 PM
Originally Posted by FreedomStands
Anything created is created by Allah. All the technologies included. The Qur'an even makes that clear. It mentions the ships on the sea invented by Allah and also says: http://islamawakened.com/quran/37/96/

37:96
"the while it is God who has created you and all your handiwork?"
Yes, but we do not attribute it to Allah. Every deed is attributed to every doer. So if someone sins, someone sinned.
Reply

farhan
04-29-2016, 05:13 PM
Originally Posted by Theistic
can you please share the source of this information?
Found it: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chang...-shailesh-modi
Reply

Serinity
04-30-2016, 05:10 PM
Originally Posted by FreedomStands
So what? I quote you the Qur'an, you quote me "Serinity".
Idk why I said that, anyways. May Allah forgive us all. Ameen.

I ask Allah to guide us, and forgive us all for whatever we may say. Ameen.
Reply

Muezzin
05-08-2016, 07:17 PM
Good article, but I strongly disagree with the writer saying people should stop studying law (or any other profession for which there is an app). We currently still need qualified staff to check such apps, no? As well as real lawyers and judges etc.

Until our solar-powered robot overlords awaken and decide otherwise.
Reply

gazzalii
10-30-2016, 02:55 AM
Interesting
Reply

kritikvernunft
10-30-2016, 11:02 AM
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Yes, that is a desirable trend. Governments create cartels, such as the local taxi company cartel or the local hotel cartel. These cartels can gauge prices to the detriment of their customers, because the government will stamp out competition anyway, especially from small companies. We are now using technology to put an end to government-endorsed local cartels. There is not much they can do about that. What technology will they use to counter technology?
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less laywyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Well, adjudication will still remain a real job. If you look at multisignature transactions, you will find that there is an arbitrator who may have to adjudicate:

2-of-3: Buyer-seller escrow: buyer commits money into a 2-of-3 transaction with the seller and a third-party arbitrator. If transaction goes smoothly, then both buyer and seller sign the transaction to forward the money to the seller. If something goes wrong, they can sign a transaction to refund the buyer. If they cannot agree, they both appeal to the third-party who will arbitrate and provide a second signature to the party that it deems deserves it.

So, there will still be someone needed to judge. But then again, the technology clan is very much opposed against any State-enforced monopoly of lawyers and judges (in man-made law) to do any of that type of adjudication. As far as I am concerned, the job will go to the ulema, who are qualified in religious law. But then again, it will be the buyer/seller themselves who will choose. If they are believers in Islam, they should choose ulema as adjudicator and not man-made-law lawyers. I will personally always argue in favour of the ulema and against man-made law.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses.
Yes, the existing government-regulated system of medical care is too expensive and therefore inaccessible to a large number of people. It is obvious that we will use technology to expel government involvement out of health care. There will be no more expensive, government-enforced credentialist monopoly for health care provision. It will no longer be needed to get insurance for most medical services, because they should be affordable out of the box.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lifes each year. Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Yes, agreed. It will make transportation cheaper for everyone.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Yes, it will make housing cheaper for everyone.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
Yes, solar will mean cheaper and decentralized electricity production. Everybody will be pretty much his own producer.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Yes, cheap desalination of water means that entire coastal areas will be suitable places to live, and even to farm food, using drip irrigation. It will mean that we will partially shift away from thirsty grasses (wheat, rice, corn) to eating more roots (maniok, potatoes, other roots) or fruits of which the trees can withstand heat better (such a dades). For example, with this technique it would be possible to feed the entire Middle East from its deserts and still export food to other parts of the world, but the increase will not come from increasing the production of thirsty grasses (such as wheat). But then again, if they really insist on eating wheat, they could also trade their own desert production of roots for wheat with other areas in the world.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with you phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
We will still need medical consultants (doctors), but they will no longer be able to count on a government-enforced monopoly on health care that is too expensive, very inaccessible to the poor, and kills millions of people each year.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to have in the past. At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
A 400$ price makes the technology accessible to the poor. So, no problem here either.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Fair enough. The phone is indeed essential to the global consumer, on the condition that we drastically improve its security. Mobile phones do not exclude the poor in poor countries. Therefore, you will not hear anybody in technology arguing against the concept of mobile phone. As long as we make sure that technology does not break Divine Law and can be used to improve the situation of the global poor, we should be onto something. There are entire countries where people lack opportunities to participate meaningfully, such as Afghanistan or Sudan. It is a priority to make sure that these people can join in, and participate as buyers and sellers of halal products and services.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
I am personally convinced that there should be enough work in producing halal products and services. It is true that buyers, producers, and sellers will have to adjust and learn how to use the tools, but the tools will be accessible to everyone who wants to join in. The technology clan is quite anti-Statist and will not allow governments to exclude the poor, like they do now. For example, governments exclude the poor out of financial payment systems. Our answer, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, will never allow that. The global poor will be free to participate.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countried can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water.
Yes, the small poor farmers will be able to farm and improve their conditions, but they will also be tasked with managing the water problem. This means that there should be food for everyone, but that the increase will not possibly come from growing more thirsty grasses. For example, North Africa and the Middle East will most likely not be able increase their production of wheat, but agree to grow their production by producing and eating alternatives. All easy water is gone there.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
I am not sure at all that this production will be declared halal by the ulema. Chances are, that it will not. I am more favourable to introducing existing natural animal species of which the meat is halal, but which consume considerably less water. Existing cattle simply consume too much water. We must push down the number of liters of water per kilo of meat, while obviously still producing halal food.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
It does not sound halal to consume insect protein. However, there are enough fish species that do consume insects and of which the flesh would still be halal for consumption. If the scholars declare the fish (or other derived animal meat) halal, it could be a solution.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Yes! We want to expel governments out of the currency, and shut down the riba/interest-infested fiat banking system. The money will be halal, and it also means that the global poor can no longer be excluded.
Originally Posted by Khalid Saifullah
Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at 10$ in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
Yes, cutting the cost of State-controlled education will also allow more tutors/teachers to work more meaningfully in it, and organize things around cheaper solutions such as apps and websites. A decentralized education system from which we have removed government control, is surely a stated goal. However, we are not going to remove religious control. On the contrary, we will increase religious control. None of these plans are supposed to promote behaviours or attitudes that are haram. The technology should be used to stamp out pagan views and attitudes, and instead, to promote religious orthodoxy. If a particular technology promotes haram behaviour, we should address the issue by adapting its design. This new wave of technology is certainly anti-Statist and anti-Government, but it is not meant to be anti-religion. On the contrary, every time I see some new technology that is clearly halal, I always seek to promote it with early adopters from the Islamic community. If it can make them money or save them money, or is otherwise useful to them, there is no reason why Muslims would have to reject the use of halal tools with which to achieve their own goals.
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