Syria: If Daraa falls, could it be the beginning of the end of the civil war? http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-2...s-next/9809420
By
Tracey Shelton
Updated yesterday at 3:04am
Photo: A fighter from Free Syrian Army watches a full moon rises in Daraa. (Reuters: Alaa al-Faqir)
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"Your turn doctor": They don't sound like words that could spark a revolution. But on March 6, 2011 — when a group of boys graffitied those words on a wall at their school in Daraa, Syria — they did.
Key points:- Daraa is the last rebel stronghold in southern Syria
- Its recapture would be an important victory for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
- Israel is concerned about Iranian involvement in any offensive near its border
The 'doctor' the boys referred to was President Bashar al-Assad, and in the months leading up to the graffiti incident, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Tunisian leader Ben Ali had both been forced from office by mass public protests.
Those seemingly innocent words posed the question, could Mr Assad be next,
and in the years that followed it appeared he could be.
What started in Daraa has since led to a proxy war, now in its eighth year, that
has claimed the lives of more than 500,000 Syrians and displaced almost 12 million.
After losing more than 80 per cent of his country in the first four years of conflict, Mr Assad — with the backing of Russia, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah — has been claiming it back town by town.
After
brutally reclaiming East Ghouta — a rebel enclave near his capital Damascus — Mr Assad has warned that Daraa is next.
If Daraa falls, it could be the beginning of the end of the Syrian war.
Daraa: The last rebel enclave in southern Syria+-
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Map: Interactive map showing Daraa in Syria.
Daraa province and its capital of the same name lies on the Jordanian border.
This rebel stronghold that includes parts of Quneitra province stretches all the way to the Golan Heights — an area of Syrian territory held by Israel since the Six-Day War in 1967.
It is the last remnant of opposition to the government in Syria's south.
The US, Russia and Jordan agreed last year to include Daraa as part of a "de-escalation zone",but after dropping leaflets by air across the area warning of an imminent offensive and urging insurgents to lay down their arms, Syrian planes began dropping barrel bombs on populated areas on June 21.
The video below shows the Syrian regime striking the Daraa countryside.
External Link: Facebook footage of Daraa attack
Washington cautioned it would take "firm and appropriate measures" to protect the ceasefire in southern Syria.
But ceasefire agreements and international warnings were no deterrent when the
Syrian government launched an offensive on Eastern Ghouta in February.
More than 1,700 civilians were killed in the eight-week offensive.
The significance of Eastern Ghouta
What is it about Eastern Ghouta that has made its population the victims of such frequent and vicious attacks?
Evacuation deals saw
rebels and civilians put in buses and driven to rebel-held territory in northern Syria.
"In Damascus and in Moscow the understanding right now is we've pretty much done it — we've secured our victory," said Charles Lister, Senior Fellow of the Middle East Institute.
"We've got more to go but this is irreversible now."
The focus for Damascus is now on rebuilding the economy and resuming foreign trade, a priority which Mr Lister says will put the military focus heavily on regaining Daraa's border crossing with Jordan.
Aside from this southern pocket, the only other significant patches of Syria left outside of government hands are
the rebel stronghold of Idlib, Turkish-backed rebel areas surrounding Afrin and the Kurdish region — held by sometimes Assad-allied Kurdish forces backed by the US.
FSA, Islamic State: Who is in control?
Photo: Control of Daraa is split between Free Syrian Army fighters, the Islamic State and government forces. (Reuters: Alaa al-Faqir)
The Free Syrian Army (FSA) —
a coalition of moderate Islamic and secular rebel groups — holds nearly three-quarters of Daraa province and parts of the provincial capital.
The FSA is frequently at odds with Islamic State, which holds a small pocket of territory in the south.
Islamic State has made several attempts to expand into FSA areas after losing ground to the Syrian government in recent months.
Photo: Overview of territorial control in Syria as of early August 2016. (Supplied: Hate Speech International)
The terrorist group, which
once controlled close to half of Syria, including vast desert areas, currently holds only 3 per cent of the country.
Retaking the Nasib border crossing with Jordan, held by rebels since 2015, would reopen crucial trade routes for the regime as it struggles to rebuild.
But any military action could affect the national security of Syria's neighbours.
Jordan is already struggling to deal with well over a million Syrian refugees.
To add to the problems of the Jordanian royal family, demonstrators have been taking to the streets in mass protests over the kingdom's economic problems and plans to tax its citizens.
A strong offensive against these remaining border territories is bound to send a new wave of refugees fleeing in the only direction they can — the Jordanian border.
Internationally, no-one wants to see Jordan destabilise — least of all Israel, which is already in short supply of friendly neighbours.
But Mr Lister said, with the mediation of Russia, the Jordanian government has "already flipped" and has taken on a "better the devil you know" mentality towards Mr Assad on the condition that Russian military police control any recaptured border areas.
Why some say Russia is the key to the crisis
Photo: Russian soldiers on armoured vehicles patrol a street in Aleppo. (Reuters: Omar Sanadiki)
Israel's main concern is the presence of Iranian and Hezbollah troops on Syrian soil.
Syria is technically at war with Israel over control of the Golan Heights, but a ceasefire has largely held since the 1970s.
Last week, Israel reached an agreement with Russia to allow Syrian regime troops to return to the border to combat the rebels on the condition that no Iranian or Hezbollah forces will be stationed in that area.
Photo: Russian troops and aircraft have helped the Syrian president win back more than half of the country. (Syrian Presidency via Facebook)
Abraham Wagner, a Columbia professor and Senior Fellow at the Centre for Advanced Studies on Terrorism, was part of a US government team that negotiated a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hafez al-Assad, before his son took power.
"Israel would be perfectly happy with Assad and a stable government," said Mr Wagner.
"They don't care about a Russian presence in Syria; the Russians have no interest in bombing Israel."
But
tensions continue to heighten between Israel and Iran with reports of growing Iranian missile bases in Lebanon and Syria.
Israel carried out a wave of airstrikes against Iranian forces in Syria last month.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed disapproval of Iran using its position in Syria to carry out an anti-Israel agenda and called for "all foreign troops" to withdraw from Syria. But Iran responded with anger and defiance.
"The Israelis have their deal with the Russians, they are the key to cleaning this up," Mr Wagner said.
"But to what extend can the Russians restrain what Iran are doing in Syria and Lebanon?"
What happens if the 'cradle of the revolution' falls?
Photo: Anti-government protests erupted across Syria after a brutal crackdown on protests in the city of Daraa. (ABC News: Tracey Shelton)
Over seven years after the people of Daraa took to the streets, taking back the embattled city — dubbed 'the cradle of the revolution' — would not only consolidate regime power in the south but it would hand Mr Assad a symbolic victory over his enemies.
External Link: Leaflets Dropped over Daraa
Mr Wagner believes the Daraa offensive will essentially be "the last act of the war" in Syria.
"The only question left is what will Syria look like after the civil war," he said.
Speaking on state television last week, Mr Assad said he expected the war to be over in "less than a year", but he also repeated his vow to claim back "every inch" of Syria.
The same day, regime airstrikes in the north claimed the lives of more than 50 people in rebel-held Idlib.
While it seems inevitable that Mr Assad will reclaim Daraa, ousting the Turkish military and its Syrian allies in the north and defeating the rebel fighters who control Idlib does not look likely to happen any time soon.
The largest territory outside of government hands is a vast Kurdish region controlled by the US-backed SDF. But Kurdish leaders, who have retained ties with Mr Assad's government, say their aim is not an independent state, but a federal system with nominal autonomy — a proposal the Syrian government has previously shut down.
While Mr Assad is clearly going nowhere, he is bound to lose large swathes of his territory in the north.
Mr Wagner believes once this "last major clean up" of the critical area of Daraa is over, Mr Assad will begin to "wind down" the fight.
But while we may soon see a de-escalation of the war, Syria's troubles are far from over.
"We're gong to continue to see terrorist treats from Syria for a long time," Mr Lister said, adding that while the situation is "less intense" it's also more complicated.
"If the US leave in the coming months, they will almost certainly have to go back again in the future."
Photo: Bashar al-Assad has widespread support in Syria. (Reuters: Khaled al-Hariri)