format_quote Originally Posted by
KAding
I think the second half of the next century will indeed be one in which China will start playing a dominant role. But I more or less agree with Keltoi on this, unlike the British or Ottoman hegemony, American absolute power is unlikely to decline, but rather it's relative power will as others get richer. There will be no collapse, like the British Empire or the Ottoman Empire collapsed and splintered. America will remain rich and China will gain the importance it really deserves.
I noticed something else that was interesting about China though. Modern Chinese city life resembles that in the West very much. I mean, to put it crudely, it appears materialistic, individualistic and pretty much void of spirituality and religion. IMHO this means that what is nowadays perceived as Western culture isn't really Western, or based on the Christian heritage, but rather a result of economic prosperity, ie. modernity. This is a positive development, since I believe it will be more likely that the West and the East will not have this huge cultural barrier that separates them. It will make it easier to work together and peacefully coexist in the future.
I do agree with you. But, that does not mean I like it. I do see a time when most of the world will be economicaly equal. I see this as going to bring an end to the wide diversity of cultures we now enjoy. It is also going to bring the spread of modernization, which in a physical sense that is good,but it is bad without control, it results in decline of moral and aesthetic values. It does not have to be that way, but history tends to show that most people will place physical comfort and pleasure above all else.
In todays world this looks like a Western Import. But, that is far from the truth. It is the result of people being able to rapidly achieve physical comfort with little perceived need to rely on the spiritual values of life.
The conflict between China and India is going to be over which country is the quickest to develope low cost industrialization, and world marketing skills. At the moment I believe China is well in the lead in those areas and will become the Industrial giant with India being a back up source of cheap labor. As the average income in China grows the more India will be providing cheap labor.
For the sake of world stability I believe it is best for China to become the new center of economics and industrialization. China is probably the country that is least likely to be met with aggresion by any nation, unless they were to be the aggressors. Economic growth would be an incentive for that not to risk their life styles for aggressive purposes, unless they make the error of trying to be the world's police force.
Pakastan is another country that is not out of the running. But at the moment I do not see them as soon becoming a contender, unless they form a strong alliance with Saudi Arabia, Saudi putting up the working capital and Pakastan putting up the man power. With that combination Pakistan could become a leading country.