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England
06-14-2007, 07:08 PM
Asia Times Online

General staffs before World War I began war planning with demographic tables, calculating how many men of military age they might feed to the machine guns. France preferred an early war because its stagnant population would not produce enough soldiers a generation hence to fight Germany. Only Israel’s general staff looks at demographic tables today, to draw prospective boundaries that will enclose a future Jewish majority.

Demographics still provide vital strategic information, albeit in quite a different fashion. Today’s Islamists think like the French general staff in 1914. Islam has one generation in which to establish a global theocracy before hitting a demographic barrier. Islam has enough young men - the pool of unemployed Arabs is expected to reach 25 million by 2010 - to fight a war during the next 30 years. Because of mass migration to Western Europe, the worst of the war might be fought on European soil.



Although the Muslim birth rate today is the world’s second highest (after sub-Saharan Africa), it is falling faster than the birth rate of any other culture. By 2050, according to the latest UN projections, the population growth rate of the Muslim world will converge on that of the United States (although it will be much higher than Europe's or China's).

Falling fertility measures the growing influence of modernity upon the Muslim world. Literacy rates, especially female literacy, best explain the difference between the very high fertility rates of pre-modern society and the moderate fertility rates of industrial countries, as I showed in a recent study (Death by secularism: The statistical evidence, August 1, 2005).



This is clearly the case in the Muslim world where the lowest rates of adult literacy correspond to the highest population growth rate. Literacy alone explains 58% of the variation in birth rates among Muslim countries.

Urbanization, literacy, and openness to the modern world ultimately will suppress the Muslim womb, in the absence of radical measures. In a new volume of essays on modern Islamic thought, the Islamists Suha Taji-Farouki and Basheer M Nafi observe, “Rather than being a development within cultural traditions that is internally generated, 20th century Islamic thought is constitutively responsive; it is substantially a reaction to extrinsic challenges.” [1] The challenge stems from the transformation of Muslim life:

In the Middle East of 1900, for example, less than 10% of the inhabitants were city dwellers; by 1980, 47% were urban. In 1800, Cairo had a population of 250,000, rising to 600,000 by the beginning of the 20th century. The unprecedented influx of immigrants from rural areas brought the population of Cairo to almost 8 million by 1980. Massive urbanization altered patterns of living, of housing and architecture, of the human relation with space and land, of marketing, employment, and consumption, and the very structure of family and social hierarchy. [2]

The sharp fall in the Muslim population growth rate expresses the extreme fragility of traditional society. Translated into the Islamist vocabulary (citing again Taji-Farouki and Nafi), this means that:

A Muslim sense of vulnerability and outrage is further exacerbated by the seemingly unstoppable encroachment of American popular culture and modes of consumerism and the transparent hypocrisy of the American rhetoric of universal rights and liberties. It is also stoked by Western ambivalence towards economic disparities in the world. [3]

Rapid urbanization, to be sure, produced growing pains in every case on record. Britain transported its displaced population to America and then to Australia, including the “clearing” of entire Scots villages forced onto ships for Canada. But Britain’s urbanization coincided with rapid economic growth and improving living standards. The Arab world’s urbanization has only created a stagnant pool of urban poor. As the London Economist summarized in the United Nations Arab Development Report for 2002:

One in five Arabs still live on less than $2 a day. And over the past 20 years growth in income per head, at an annual rate of .5%, was lower than anywhere else in the world except sub-Saharan Africa. At this rate, says the report, it will take the average Arab 140 years to double his income, a target that some regions are set to reach in less than 10 years. Stagnant growth, together with a fast-rising population, means vanishing jobs. About 12 million people, or 15% of the labor force, are already unemployed, and on present trends the number could rise to 25 million by 2010. [4]

Excluding Indonesia, the Muslim’s world literacy rate stands at only 53%, against 81% for China; Arab literacy is only 50%. Only 1% of the population owns a personal computer. It is delusional to believe that the Arab world, which now exports (net of oil) as much as Finland, might come to compete with China, India and the rest of Asia in the global market for goods and services.

Just as the Muslim population peaks, the one bounty that nature has bestowed upon the Arabs, namely oil, will begin to diminish. According to the US Department of Energy, conventional oil production will peak just before 2050 at the present 2% rate of production growth.

In short, the Muslim world half a century from now can expect the short end of the stick from the modern world. It has generated only two great surpluses, namely people and oil. By the middle of the century both of these will have begun to dwindle. But at the moment it has 25 million idle young men. No leader can remain in power who does not give them a destination to march to.

By no means does that imply that all of these 25 million will become suicide bombers, but a great many of them are likely to emigrate to Europe, including Eastern Europe, where populations are stagnant and about to decline. A Muslim takeover of Western Europe surely is a possible outcome.

Notes
[1] Suha Taji-Farouki and Basheer M. Nafi, Islamic Thought in the Twentieth Century (Tauris: London 2004), p 9
[2] Ibid, p 2
[3] Op cit, p 14
[4] Economist, July 4, 2002



http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/GH23Aa01.html
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carpetguy
06-14-2007, 07:12 PM
its shows how much u know about the ending of the world, so much struff has already happened that was written in the quran, believe it or not but muslims will prevail by the end of the world, no matter what the papers say.

and as much as u hate to hear this but we aint going anywhere
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- Qatada -
06-14-2007, 07:13 PM
:salamext:


I don't know where this guy got the idea that the muslim world only consists of arabs, when the arabs are only a minority.


Anyway:


The final Messenger of Allaah/God, Muhammad (peace be upon him) spoke the truth when he said:

"There will not cease to be a group from my ummah [community - the muslims], dominant upon the truth. The ones who abandon them will not be able to harm them, until the decree of Allaah comes."
[Authentically Reported in Saheeh Muslim]
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carpetguy
06-14-2007, 07:16 PM
so true, may allah keep our faiths strong, and keep the quran and sunnah close to our hearts.
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- Qatada -
06-14-2007, 07:18 PM
:wasalamex


Ameen :) how many times in history have those who disbelieved tried to eradicate Islaam, yet Allaah perfected it without a doubt, no matter how much they oppose it.

They desire to put out the light of Allah with their mouths, and Allah will not consent save to perfect His light, though the unbelievers are averse.

It is He Who hath sent His Messenger with guidance and the Religion of Truth, to proclaim it over all religion, even though the Pagans may detest (it).

[Qur'an 9: 32-3]
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Philosopher
06-14-2007, 07:25 PM
umm.....Arabs make up only 17% of the Muslim population
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vpb
06-14-2007, 07:26 PM
England, did u draw that black line yourself on Microsoft Paint???
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DAWUD_adnan
06-14-2007, 07:32 PM
Since when are we being compared with China and germany and Usa ?

those are countries not faiths
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England
06-14-2007, 07:35 PM
Originally Posted by DAWUD_adnan
Since when are we being compared with China and germany and Usa ?

those are countries not faiths
No what it's doing is it's comparing muslims in the "muslim" world to muslims in "Germany" and the "USA" and "China."
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rania2820
06-14-2007, 07:40 PM
Originally Posted by - Qatada -
:salamext:


I don't know where this guy got the idea that the muslim world only consists of arabs, when the arabs are only a minority.


Anyway:


The final Messenger of Allaah/God, Muhammad (peace be upon him) spoke the truth when he said:

"There will not cease to be a group from my ummah [community - the muslims], dominant upon the truth. The ones who abandon them will not be able to harm them, until the decree of Allaah comes."
[Authentically Reported in Saheeh Muslim]
agreed! arabs only make up 20% of the muslim population.
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AHMED_GUREY
06-14-2007, 07:41 PM
Modern warfare is not about how much men you have, it's about power projection. You need rescources like fuel and you need the right military equipment like aircraft carriers etc etc to place your men in the right positions

a 2 million man muslim army with all the right tools could conquer or defend more than a 20 or 30 million man army ever could dream off

leadership and determination is also very important
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Sinbad
06-14-2007, 07:44 PM
Yes the future is intressting, but dont belive in hypothesis. in the 1960s they talked of the futurustic 80s when al cars would be nuclear driven et c.

The future is always unexpected,
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vpb
06-14-2007, 07:46 PM
Modern warfare is not about how much men you have, it's about power projection. You need rescources like fuel and you need the right military equipment like aircraft carriers etc etc to place your men in the right positions

a 2 million man muslim army with all the right tools could conquer or defend more than a 20 or 30 million man army ever could dream off

leadership and determination is also very important
lol bro, just imagine the difference between 200 Mujahideen and 2000 soldiers of any country? hahaha . lol ;D
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England
06-14-2007, 07:53 PM
Originally Posted by AHMED_GUREY
Modern warfare is not about how much men you have, it's about power projection. You need rescources like fuel and you need the right military equipment like aircraft carriers etc etc to place your men in the right positions

a 2 million man muslim army with all the right tools could conquer or defend more than a 20 or 30 million man army ever could dream off

leadership and determination is also very important
If you're referring to the suggestion of a war being fought on European soil as it says in the article then the troops would be much higher than that of 20-30 million. As I have said before, people will fight for their lands. I'd put it in the region of billion(s) man army... :X
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Sinbad
06-14-2007, 07:55 PM
Originally Posted by vpb
lol bro, just imagine the difference between 200 Mujahideen and 2000 soldiers of any country? hahaha . lol ;D
What the islamic ummah needs is leaders of Iranic decent. Salaudin, the Iranian revolutionary guard commanders that defended LEbanon when Israel attacked et c.

Iranian brains and Arabic numbers is what the ummah needs.

But it will not happen cause the arab states are kufir strongholds:D
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vpb
06-14-2007, 07:58 PM
What the islamic ummah needs is leaders of Iranic decent. Salaudin, the Iranian revolutionary guard commanders that defended LEbanon when Israel attacked et c.

Iranian brains and Arabic numbers is what the ummah needs.

But it will not happen cause the arab states are kufir strongholds
i need to filter a little bit your post, it would be enough to have 2000 Khattabs, 2000 Salahudeens :) and there is no need for numbers or anything. the only is needed is pious muslims whose faith is strong.

But it will not happen cause the arab states are kufir strongholds
a government can fall at any time. :)
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AHMED_GUREY
06-14-2007, 08:49 PM
Originally Posted by England
If you're referring to the suggestion of a war being fought on European soil as it says in the article then the troops would be much higher than that of 20-30 million. As I have said before, people will fight for their lands. I'd put it in the region of billion(s) man army... :X
The soviet army was much larger than the invading German army in WW2 but evendo it was outnumbered the Germans almost completely destroyed the whole red army because of the abundance of equipment and fuel on their side, it was only when the Russian winter entered the war that the Germans began losing battles because [1] the equipment needed wasn't coming in from German Factories(transportation problems and the fact that these same factories were being bombed themselves) and [2] because of the build up of military equipment on the side of the Russians by Soviet factories which enabled the red army to push back the German army and eventually force them to surrender

You could mobolize a billion man army(btw Europe's population is not a billion and probably won't be in 2050 IIRC) and still get defeated by a much much smaller army cause that billion man army won't able to move and basically are sitting ducks not to mention how fast they will burn up rescources like fuel,equipment and food etc etc
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vpb
06-14-2007, 09:05 PM
:sl:

it's the faith and the strategy what makes an armry win, irrelevant of the number of soldiers.
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wilberhum
06-14-2007, 09:14 PM
Quite odd. I go to:
Islam in the year 2050
And there is talk of war. :raging:

Odd, but not surprising. :skeleton:
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جوري
06-17-2007, 05:38 PM
Here is a good article in response to the first article, though, I believe that the numbers now are 1.86 not 1.6 bil. as the author notes


The Worldwide Muslim Population Explosion

One of every four humans in the world is a Muslim. Muslims have increased by over 235 percent in the last fifty years, up to 1.6 billion. Islam is the second largest religious group in France, Great Britain and the U.S.A. Largely through immigration, the Muslim population of the United States grew six fold between 1972 and 1990.

Last year, seven percent of babies born in European Union countries were Muslim. In Brussels, the figure was a staggering 57 percent. Islam is already the second religion of almost every European state - the only exceptions being those European countries such as Azerbaijan and Albania, where it is already the majority. If current trends continue, an overall ten percent of European nationals will be Muslim by the year 2020.

There were 945,000 Muslims living in the Netherlands in 2004, double the amount in 1990, reported the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). The Islamic community made up 5.8 percent of the Dutch population in January 2004, and its numbers will swell in coming years. The CBS expects there will be more than a million Muslims living in the Netherlands by 2006.

In Maghrib (Northwest Africa) between 1965 and 1990, the population rose from 29.8 million to 59 million. During the same period, the number of Egyptians increased from 29.4 million to 52.4 million. In Central Asia, between 1970 and 1993, populations grew at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in Tajikistan, 2.6 percent in Uzbekistan, 2.5 percent in Turkmenistan, and 1.9 percent in Kyrgyzstan. In the 1970s, the demographic balance in the Soviet Union shifted drastically, with Muslims increasing by 24 percent, while Russians increased by only 6.5 percent. In some countries, such as Tanzania and Macedonia, Muslims will become a majority within twenty years.

Conclusion

If the West's population is top-heavy, (i.e., the ratio of youth to elderly is low), that of Muslim populations is the opposite. For example, today more than half the population of Algeria is under the age of twenty, and this situation is similar elsewhere. These young populations will reproduce and perpetuate the increase of Muslims on a percentage basis well into the next millennium.

Total World population................ 5,771,939,007 (1996)
% of Muslims.......................... 26% (1996)
World Muslim population............... 1,678,442,000 (1998)


Growth of Islam:
Africa................................ 2.15%
Latin America......................... 4.73%
Asia.................................. 12.57%
North America......................... 25%
Europe................................ 142.35%
Australia............................. 257.01%


Top 10 Largest National Muslim Populations:
Indonesia............................. 170,310,000
Pakistan.............................. 136,000,000
Bangladesh............................ 106,050,000
India................................. 103,000,000
Turkey................................ 62,410,000
Iran.................................. 60,790,000
Egypt................................. 53,730,000
Nigeria............................... 47,720,000
*China................................ 37,108,000


*Reliable religious statistics are difficult to obtain from the communist nation of China, and the actual number of Muslims in China is likely to be greater than the figure presented above.

The Muslim population in China is 11% by Chinese Muslim sources. This is based on the fact that the ethnic "Hui" group is predominantly Muslim, and 9% of the Chinese population belongs to this group. There are Uigurs and other Turkic people in addition to that, mostly in northwestern China, who constitute the remaining 2%... At the current size of China’s total population, 11% being Muslim would equate to at least 120 million by these conservative estimates.

According to the Chinese population statistics of 1936, the Republic of China had an estimated 48 million Muslims. The government census of 1982, however, put the number much lower, at 15 million. By this time the total population of China has increased 3-4 fold. From this we could safely conclude that the total Muslim population has increased by the same proportion, at a minimum (excluding the possibility of Chinese Muslim genocide). Therefore, the total Muslim population of China would be at least 150 million by this calculation. The Chinese government refuses to disclose the actual number of Muslims residing in China, so estimations vary from the "official" 20 million to the unofficial 200 million.

Muslim population growth may be driven by factors other than the choice to have more children. Because Muslims are not as promiscuous as the rest of the human race, they have largely avoided the global AIDS epidemic. While there is some danger that a whole generation of youth in certain sub-Saharan African countries could die of AIDS, the rate of infection in Muslim countries is typically less than one in a thousand adults. If large numbers of non-Muslims die of AIDS, and the Muslims do not, then their relative population will inevitably increase.

AIDS is only one of many venereal diseases that afflict humanity. If Muslims have avoided AIDS, it is a safe assumption that they have also avoided the other sexually transmitted diseases as well. Some of those diseases, like Hepatitis C, are deadly. Other venereal diseases, particularly Gonorrhea and Chlamydia, do not kill but they do cause infertility. Infertility is far less common in Egypt than America. While about twenty percent of American couples are infertile, only ten percent of Egyptian couples are.

Some of this Muslim advantage in population growth might be eliminated by technological advances, such as drugs that cure, or vaccines that prevent venereal diseases. On the other hand, Gonorrhea is progressively becoming immune to more and more antibiotics, and various strains of AIDS are becoming immune to the drug cocktails that hold it in check. Promiscuous people not only spread venereal diseases, but they also provide the environment in which new ones can evolve. On the other hand, if most of the world's population becomes Muslim, some venereal diseases might become extinct.



Mind-bending pictures from far far away...





This is an aerial view of the Masjid al-Haram, the largest mosque in Mecca. There are approximately 2.5 million people, representing every race and nationality, from every corner of the globe, assembled in and around this superstructure.




Zooming in on this massive mosque, you can see the millions of people, all simultaneously supplicating to the Creator of the Universe. There is nothing else like this on the face of the earth.




In the center of the mosque stands The Kaba, a cubical stone structure draped in heavy black silk curtains and embroidered with pure gold and silver thread. This structure was originally built by the prophet Abraham and his son Ishmael, thousands of years ago. It was the first building on earth built purely for the worship of the Creator of the Universe. This is when the pilgrimage, or Hajj was first established. In this picture you can see countless people standing in concentric rings around The Kaba. The bass reverberation of their voices as they all recite in unison sends shockwaves of sound that you could never imagine...




KABA!!!

It is the obligation of every muslim to perform these rights at least once in his or her life if they are able to make the trip. There is one condition however. No one can take place in this event unless they believe and testify that there is nothing worthy of admiration or worship except the Creator of the Universe, and that Muhammad (peace be upon him) was The Creator's final messenger sent to mankind to teach them this amazing truth.
source
So somehow I think we'll thrive and survive the predictions!
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NobleMuslimUK
06-17-2007, 10:55 PM
Originally Posted by England
If you're referring to the suggestion of a war being fought on European soil as it says in the article then the troops would be much higher than that of 20-30 million. As I have said before, people will fight for their lands. I'd put it in the region of billion(s) man army... :X
Such a hypocritical view there, when muslims decide to defend their lands its people like you that label them terrorists and barbarians, yet when it comes down to the cowardly west, theres just big talk.
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wilberhum
06-17-2007, 10:58 PM
Originally Posted by NobleMuslimUK
Such a hypocritical view there, when muslims decide to defend their lands its people like you that label them terrorists and barbarians, yet when it comes down to the cowardly west, theres just big talk.
Cowardly West? Is that not self incriminating?
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vpb
06-17-2007, 11:03 PM
There are approximately 2.5 million people,
That's the official number, cuz the real number is close to 4 million.
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SATalha
06-17-2007, 11:10 PM
What Muslims in decline....no way? Yeah right!
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NobleMuslimUK
06-17-2007, 11:15 PM
Originally Posted by wilberhum
Cowardly West? Is that not self incriminating?
Cowardly in the army, and fighting wars, the western soldiers need their armored vehicle, sophisticated technology etc, yet they still lose. You might think more muslims die than non-muslims, but then again the muslims are being martyred, so their death is not in vain, they are rather fortunate. The mujahideen fight with complete bravery.
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wilberhum
06-17-2007, 11:47 PM
It is so much brave to cut of men's heads after they surrender. Right?
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Sami Zaatari
06-18-2007, 12:05 AM
lol oil, ppl dont realize that these rich gulf arab states have actually begun investing in other major projects that will continue to make their countries rich and develop without oil! and i have confidence God will always provide Muslims whethor arab or non arab with some type of resource to make their nation rich, you will find several muslim nations throughout history being rich and so on, theres something called ADAPTING to the eviorment and conditions, and muslims will continue to do so with the help of God. :)
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Abdul Fattah
06-18-2007, 12:25 AM
Originally Posted by wilberhum
It is so much brave to cut of men's heads after they surrender. Right?
Just because some muslims do this, doesn't mean it's permissable.
Look here for more information about this topic:
http://www.aiipowmia.com/iraq/quranpwrights.html

Islam in the year 2050 And there is talk of war. Odd but not surprising
Note that it was the original article posted by England that brought up the idea of war. The article examines the circumstances of the hypothesis that there will be a war. So that other muslims discuss the possible circumstances of war doesn't mean that we muslims are hoping or looking for war, it is just building on the proposed hypothesis.

If anyone is looking for war I would suspect the people that made those analyses. (or better, the people who instructed those analyses to be made)
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