In Chechnya there has recently been talk of possible large-scale attacks by separatist groups
Despite the apparent calm and serenity, the situation in the Chechen Republic is starting to deteriorate. The local law enforcement agencies and the military have significantly intensified their activities.
Local residents say that at night there is a noticeably increased presence of law enforcement officials on the streets of Grozny. Military units have recently begun to set up mobile checkpoints on the numerous bypass roads that skirt the Chechen capital, and these are usually reinforced by armour. All of this is leading people to suppose that a serious worsening of the situation in the republic may occur in the near future.
"A few days ago I was returning to Grozny from the Achkhoi-Martanovsky district with my nephew. We drove at night on the bypass road that leads to Staropromyslovsky district, and came across a group of soldiers. They were in Ural and UAZ vehicles, accompanied by an armoured personnel carrier. They all wore masks," says Alkhazur, a 49-year-old Grozny resident.
"They searched our Zhiguli automobile, including the entire passenger space, the luggage, even under the seats. Then they took our passports and checked them against some list," he said. "When I asked why they were doing this, one of them replied: ‘Your Dokka Umarov has just received a large sum of money from abroad, and he'll be up to something now. So we're getting down to work.' After they'd searched us, they let us go, adding a recommendation that we shouldn't drive at night."
Meanwhile, reports are arriving from various parts of the republic, particularly the mountainous part, that small groups of guerrillas have been seen near population centres. A few weeks ago it was even claimed that the separatists had set up their checkpoints in the vicinity of one or two villages in the Grozny district. Mention was even made of the village of Prigorodnoye, which is located just a few kilometres south of the Chechen capital.
Another serious problem for the present Chechen government is the situation created by the fact that many young men are joining the ranks of the guerrillas. It is even claimed that dozens of law enforcement officers have gone over to the separatists. Ramzan Kadyrov recently stated that the reports of a mass enlistment of young Chechen men in guerrilla units do not correspond to reality.
"Someone is deliberately escalating the situation by spreading rumours that nearly a hundred men have joined the resistance. That is untrue, and the Chechen authorities, the administration and the local police should work to increase awareness among the people, " he says. "On the whole, it appears that these are men who have committed certain crimes and are trying to evade justice. Some may be police officers, but others are ordinary citizens."
Nevertheless, the seriousness of the developing situation was underlined on May 22 by an address broadcast on local television by Chechnya's Mufti, Sultan Mirzayev, who said that some two dozen young men had joined the guerrillas in recent months, and that there would be no amnesty for such individuals, who would "either find their deaths in the mountains or spend their lives in jail."
That the leaders of the Chechen separatists are serious in their intentions can be seen in Ichkerian President Dokka Umarov's widely distributed appeal to members of the law enforcement agencies. In it, the Ichkerian leader called on them to leave the service and return to their homes, promising them an amnesty in exchange. Umarov plans to deal summarily with those who do not comply.
The precise number of separatist guerrilla units operating in the Chechen Republic still remains unknown. Different agencies and authorities quote radically different figures. This spring, Ramzan Kadyrov announced that there only a few dozen local guerrillas and a couple of hundred Arab mercenaries were still active. Then a top Russian general, deputy interior minister Arkady Yedelev, assessed the strength of the Chechen separatist forces at about 450 "bayonets", divided into 37 "bandit groups".
At the same time, the recently appointed President Ramzan Kadyrov promised to "finish off" the resistance within two to three months. The "counter-terrorist operation" was to all intents and purposes complete. "I can state with complete confidence that the Chechen Republic is the most stable region in Russia. These are not just words, they are facts. Extreme situations may arise in any country - in London, New York, Paris or anywhere else, but on the whole Chechnya is stable," Kadyrov said at a press conference in Grozny.
However, the optimistic statements by the republic's leadership and the Russian military about a "final victory" over the Chechen fighters were, as the current situation shows, far from reality. The separatists have not only recovered from severe losses last year (when both Ichkerian President Abdul-Khalim Sadullayev and notorious "Russian terrorist No. 1" Shamil Basayev were killed), but are also ready for active operations. There have recently been regular reports from the mountainous part of Chechnya about attacks on servicemen and gunfights between small groups of guerrillas and members of the law enforcement agencies.
"We have intelligence that a few weeks ago armed resistance groups bought about 400 sets of uniforms, about half of which were police uniforms. The guerrillas are probably planning to launch a series of major attacks, disguising themselves as law enforcers or members of government units. The law enforcement agencies have the situation in the republic under control, but anything may be expected, " a Chechen police officer says.
http://kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/.../06/8566.shtml