Assessment of Lal Masjid operation by Pakistani Think Tank BRASSTACKS
The author Zaid Hamid (Founding Consultant of BRASSTACKS) was asked certain questions about the whole affair by a journalist and here we would like to give a brief and quick review of some of them which help us to see the whole perspective. The interview was given immediately after the operation was completed and the casualty figure was being hotly debated as even now.
* In the aftermath of the Lal Masjid operation by the army, in retrospect how do you view the whole episode? What repercussions will it have in the long term?
This group is a renegade militant group called Takfiri who are quick to declare war on Muslims if they disagree with them. They are ideologically anarchists and outcastes even in other Jihadi
groups. Did you not notice that none of the mainstream Jihadi groups like Lashkar Taiba, Hizbul Mujahideen and alikes did not support them and even their own board of seminaries had
excommunicated them? Such groups are rare but are often created due to fanatic cleric looking for self glorification. All mainstream religious and jihadi groups have distanced themselves from these idiots, hence the reaction is not that violent as one would expect. The subtle difference between them and others is critical to understand. The reaction would come on government’s hiding the casualty figures when missing person list would sharply increase. The only militant groups openly supporting them are already declared terrorist groups like SSP and TNSM.
* Do you really believe there was a failure on the part of intelligence agencies and that they did not foresee the militant power?
100%. This was not a drama or fake scenario created by the security agencies as many are suggesting. This is a massive security failure and extremely embarrassing indeed. Some heads
should roll on this.
* Do we know the number of people killed, how many women?
I feel about 200 to 250 would be the total casualty figure. With 75 militants’ acknowledged by the government, rest will have to be accounted for it seems. We will know when missing persons
list will increase. The Mullahs are increasing pressure that there were 1000 people inside. That is crap and non-sense as their dead leader was saying that 1800 are inside. This is bluff and the
government played into it as it had no way of confirming it. Again, poorest intel.
Weapons and Militants:
Yes the weapons shown to the media do belong to the militants and there was a huge stock pile in the complex consisting of machine guns, rocket launchers, land mines, grenades, gas masks, Molotov cocktails and suicide vests. Since this equipment has also been captured on live footage and photographs on July 3rd, even before the military operation began, we have no doubt that government version is ok here. The dead cleric had himself claimed having stockpile of weapons for a month. These militants offered most fierce resistance to Special Forces for 30 hours in the Masjid complex killing 10 and wounding about 45 of top most elite commandoes. The Masjid was a weapons dump no doubt prepared for a long war and an armed rebellion. The accidental clash with the security forces and their over confidence in under estimating the General scuttled their long term game plan. The government has been open from the beginning about the number of militants killed as hiding their figure served no purpose. About 50-60 militants have been reported killed and about 150 have been captured alive. So far there is no confirmation of any foreign militants but indeed these men were all battle hardened ruthless die hard types. If the government can prove foreign militants or any previously wanted criminal in their ranks, it will strengthen its case.
This picture was taken on July 3rd when first Ranger was killed along with 19 others and Ministry of environment was set on fire by these men using Molotov cocktails. He seems to be holding an American weapon similar to M-14. Does that suggest anything??
The number of Casualties of women, Children and hostages:
Though the clerics are kicking dust that 1000 casualties have taken place within students of the seminary, there are reasons for us to believe that this is mass level disinformation. For one, no one has yet come forward with any proof, list, names, addresses or the roll register of the seminary to prove that what the actual number of students in the seminary was. No one knows that yet! Almost everyone is giving this figure without any proof at all!! This is ridiculously fantastic. With almost 3000 already walked out before the operations, the number of remaining students remains a guess only but would surely be in few hundreds only maximum. Even that is on the higher side.
But there are circumstantial evidence as well as based on our own sources which suggests that there are very few civilian (women and children) casualties, may be in dozens only which the government is also acknowledging now but tried to hide earlier.
Why we say that is due to the fact that if there were 1000 missing students, we should also be having 1000 families or parents searching for their children!! But in Islamabad today, since the last 10 days, the number of parents searching for their children is reducing by the day and today we only find 60 or so families still searching for their children. Where are the 950 parents whose children are supposed to be missing as claimed by the clerics???? We find it extremely difficult to believe that those parents have still refused to come and search for their kids. The only thing which we believe now is that there we no hostages in reality but only about 50 to 60 women and children belonging to the group itself when the operation started.
Though the clerics are kicking dust that 1000 casualties have taken place within students of the seminary, there are reasons for us to believe that this is mass level disinformation. For one, no
one has yet come forward with any proof, list, names, addresses or the roll register of the seminary to prove that what the actual number of students in the seminary was. No one knows that yet! Almost everyone is giving this figure without any proof at all!! This is ridiculously fantastic. With almost 3000 already walked out before the operations, the number of remaining students remains a guess only but would surely be in few hundreds only maximum. Even that is on the higher side.
But there are circumstantial evidence as well as based on our own sources which suggests that there are very few civilian (women and children) casualties, may be in dozens only which the government is also acknowledging now but tried to hide earlier.
Why we say that is due to the fact that if there were 1000 missing students, we should also be having 1000 families or parents searching for their children!! But in Islamabad today, since the last 10 days, the number of parents searching for their children is reducing by the day and today we only find 60 or so families still searching for their children. Where are the 950 parents whose children are supposed to be missing as claimed by the clerics???? We find it extremely difficult to believe that those parents have still refused to come and search for their kids. The only thing which we believe now is that there were no hostages in reality but only about 50 to 60 women and children belonging to the group itself when the operation started.
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