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  1. #1
    Junon's Avatar
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    Trade War: What is it good for?

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    Salaam

    This is interesting, agree, disagree or. . . .?

    Blurb

    Vox Day, explains how a national economy is measured, lists the seven reasons why David Ricardo's Theory of Comparative Advantage is not relevant to real world trade, and demonstrates why a trade war can can actually benefit the U.S. economy.


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    Eric H's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Greetings and peace be with you Junon;

    Trade wars are bad, they only benefit a few rich people in the end. Take Apple, a few people at the top are worth billions, they pay their Chinese workers less than a couple of dollars an hour, and they work under horrific conditions. The customers pay over the odds for Apple products, so tell me who benefits?

    Rich people are only concerned about buying cheap and selling expensive, trade wars are only about trying to increase their margins. Trade wars do not seem to benefit the working class in any country.
    Trade War: What is it good for?

    You will never look into the eyes of anyone who does not matter to God.

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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    ... Trade wars may be instigated when one country perceives another country's trading practices to be unfair or when domestic trade unions pressure politicians to make imported goods less attractive to consumers.
    Trade War: What is it good for?


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    Junon's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Salaam

    Another update, a short debate on the issue.


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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Greetings and peace be with you Junon; Salaam

    Thanks for sharing the video, it just confirms that trade wars benefits the most powerful country first, they then throw crumbs to the rest of the world. The American debt mountain will eventually cripple them and it will damage the rest of the world too.

    In the spirit of praying for justice for all people

    Eric
    Trade War: What is it good for?

    You will never look into the eyes of anyone who does not matter to God.

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    Junon's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Salaam

    I agree with your sentiments Eric but as you point out if a (powerful) nation plays its cards right they can actually benefit, regardless of the cost to others.

    Mind you the American worker hasn't seen much of the benefits of all these 'free trade' agreements over the past decades so you can understand Trumps perspective.

  9. #7
    Junon's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Salaam

    More analysis.

    Why is Trump fighting the trade war?

    Why is Trump fighting the trade war? Here's why.

    Critics of Trump's trade policies think everything is okay if we don't do anything. The chart below shows that everything is not okay if we don't do anything.

    This is a chart of capital spending in the U.S. from 1968 through to the present. It is a straightforward presentation of monthly data from the Commerce Department. There is nothing clever, nothing tricky about this presentation or about the time frame chosen. The Commerce Department started this series in 1968. It superseded another series on capital spending.



    Why is this chart important?

    It is a death sentence for America.

    Although it is a single series of data, the chart is essentially in two parts, split in the year 2000. There is no manipulation to achieve this effect. This is how the data lay out, which is why this chart is so significant.

    From 1968 into 2000, you see beautiful, real-world steady growth (i.e., "steady" interspersed with recessions). The red trendline is a trendline of constant percentage growth year to year (i.e., exponential). When you calculate it, it turns out to be 6% per year. This is roughly twice GDP annual growth over the same period. There is no specific significance to that 2X factor except that we would expect capital spending to grow faster than the economy as a whole, as, in fact, it did.

    Why is this growth in capital spending important? Even in our increasingly service-oriented economy, it is capital spending – the stock of capital equipment – that sustains our standard of living. Healthy capital spending is critical to – really identical with – a thriving economy. This is why the flat capital spending that America has experienced since 2000 is so grave a condition.

    American Thinker readers will be surprised to learn that they are now the only people in the country, aside from this author, who have seen this chart. I could not be more serious when I say that.

    Economists do not think of capital spending in terms of real-world numbers. They think of it as a concept in their models that self-equilibrates. There isn't an economist from Harvard to Stanford or anywhere in between who knows this chart. Believe me: I have worked with these people. If you as a reader are in business or in academe, try me out.

    The only person in public life who understands this chart is Donald Trump. I cannot say he has literally looked at it, but he understands it.

    Note that we are not talking about the "creative destruction of capitalism" here. We are not talking about no longer making buggy whips. We are talking about the staples of a modern economy, many of which we no longer have the capital equipment to manufacture.

    We were the only country to emerge from World War II stronger than when we went into it, and our relative strength at the end of World War II was immeasurable. It became our policy, and then our unconscious attitude, to "help other countries get back on their feet." This attitude became a permanent part of our trade policy-making, wherein we essentially opened our markets to other countries while accepting that their markets were closed to us.

    The chart shows that our ability to sustain the Lord Bountiful approach to trade ended forever in 2000, although nobody in power saw it until Donald Trump came along in 2016.

    Among other things, this chart is the opioid epidemic – the despair created by permanent unemployment. The lack of capital investment is what has created the regions where people have dropped out of the workforce and thus are no longer counted as being in it.

    The chart is a picture of the consequences of our defeat in the trade war. Only Trump – and American Thinker readers of this piece – know that we have experienced this defeat.

    What happened that has resulted in no growth in capital spending in the U.S. for the last 18 years?

    George W. Bush – and I voted for him twice – agreed, with other world leaders, to admit China to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001. This gave China access to world markets and particularly to the American market. Since our system is heir to the English Common Law tradition, when we sign an agreement, we carry it out. No other culture takes this view, certainly not China. The Chinese have practiced mercantilism after signing the WTO agreement and getting access to our market, while the whole point of the WTO is to keep mercantilism out of world trade.

    Economists think mercantilism can never work, thus Trump attacking it as practiced by China is a fool's errand or worse. This is based on the early 19th-century Theory of Comparative Advantage developed by David Ricardo. It states that among trading parties, even if one party's production costs are greater in all goods than the other party's, the first party should focus on those goods where it has a comparative advantage – i.e., where its own cost of production is lower. If the two countries then trade, both will improve their welfare. If, under these conditions, a country practices mercantilism, it impoverishes itself. This is a substantial insight.

    But it depends on a key assumption: that capital is fixed. Ricardo's example was that the British should raise sheep and the French should make wine, and they should trade these goods with each other. The example was based on climate, the ultimate in fixed capital.

    With capital mobile, as it is now, mercantilism works. By forcing a trading partner to move its assets, technology, know-how, intellectual property, and R&D to the mercantilist country in order to participate in its market, a country can build itself up at the expense of its trading partner. Following its accession to the WTO, China has been strip-mining the U.S. economy of high value-added industries and high-wage jobs by doing this.

    This is not due to any hatred of the U.S., but rather to advancing its own interests. It is a double loss for us because what happens is that as industry moves to China, we end up buying goods from China on borrowed money. The goods wear out, but the debt still needs to be repaid, and we have less of a production base to repay it.

    This piece is not a valediction. It is not a counsel of despair. It is a discussion of the correlation of forces. In America, we don't give up. The other guy does that.

    What we do in America when we find ourselves in a jam is roll over to the attack. That is what Donald Trump is doing in world trade. Trump is not attacking other countries; he is attacking trade policies pursued by other countries, which are to the detriment of the United States and which we can no longer let lie. Other countries are not used to being called to account by the U.S., so his doing so is an affront to them, is a transgression in polite diplomatic society.

    So be it. The time for it has arrived.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...trade_war.html

  10. #8
    Junon's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Salaam

    Another update

    China Can No Longer Rely on The US Market as a Source of Stability For Its Exports

    Decades before the return of Hong Kong to the rest of China in 1997, a young Lee Kuan Yew carefully studied the Hong Kong economy which even in the 1960s was in many ways far more flexible, open and dynamic than those of Europe and the wider geopolitical west. Speaking in 1992 about what he learned from Hong Kong and later applied to his own nation of Singapore, Lee stated,

    “Through Hong Kong watching, I concluded that state welfare and subsidies blunted the individual’s drive to succeed. I watched with amazement the ease with which Hong Kong workers adjusted their salaries upwards in boom times and downwards in recessions. I resolved to reverse course on the welfare policies which my party had inherited or copied from British Labour Party policies”.

    It was this spirit of flexibility in times of crisis or geo-economic change that has allowed both Singapore and China as a whole to weather many international storms. China is widely regarded as being an international economic anchor of stability during the 2008 global economic recession and yet today, many of the same commercial sectors that benefited from China’s stabilising influence on the 2008 recession are now almost giddily speculating against China with many stating that the US led trade war could do irreparable harm to China.

    First of all, in a holistic sense it is wise to remember that ever since China’s opening up to economic reform in 1978 under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, many have predicted that the Chinese economic miracle was always a bubble ready to burst. Those who have made such prognostications have been consistently proved incorrect as the maturing Chinese economy continues to grow in spite of global trends which are weakening the position of many developing nations – a status China is still officially classed under according to the World Trade Organisation.

    China’s own domestic press has been very frank about the challenges facing China in 2018. A piece in the pro-government Global Times has explained current issues in the following way:

    “Recent external pressures, a general global trade malaise and bold new domestic reforms are putting some extraordinary pressures on China’s economy, but economists say positive indicators far outweigh the negative ones and predictions of doom and gloom will soon be prove wrong.

    Analysts say people and prognosticators should be more prudent and optimistic as the economy remains strong and resilient.

    “Every country’s economy has cycles and can’t continuously grow at a fast rate. The outside world shouldn’t be pessimistic about China’s economic development just because growth is slower than during the miracle China had achieved over the past 30 years,’ said Wan Zhe, chief economist of the International Cooperation Center of the National Development and Reform Commission.

    Western media reports predicting bad outcomes for China’s economy have ramped up recently. Even the Seattle Times reported on Tuesday that the China-US trade spat has rattled China’s economy and if the trade war escalates, ‘some worry that the Chinese public’s faith in the economy could be shaken.’

    Indeed, China’s economy has encountered some new challenges that have produced some negative statistics. The A-share market has slumped about 25 percent this year as the looming trade war saps investor confidence. The value of the yuan has declined nearly 6 percent in 2018 as the US dollar continues to suck cash out of the economies of many developing nations and rising real estate prices are putting pressure on reforms aimed at increasing domestic consumption.

    All of the issues have unique root causes that have little to do with the foundation that underpins China’s maturing economy.

    ‘As the world’s second-largest economy undergoes structural transformation, difficulties can be expected. The way ahead will be increasingly bumpy because just like an adult, things get more complex,’ Wan told the Global Times on Thursday, stressing ‘market fluctuations shouldn’t be politicized.’

    ‘China is growing stronger amid these difficulties… China’s economy will not be stricken by one external shock,’ Cong Liang, spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner, said at a press briefing on Wednesday.

    In the first half of 2018, China’s GDP grew 6.8 percent year-on-year, staying within the 6.7 to 6.9 percent range for consecutive 12 quarters.

    Despite many indicators that show China’s economy continues to be one of the world best performer, The New York Times said in an editorial on Wednesday that ‘China also faces a serious risk of capital flight’ and the fate of the world depends on how China deal with this.

    Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS, told the Global Times that to avoid large-scale capital flight out of China, the People’s Bank of China will likely stabilize the exchange rate as necessary. Wang said that the yuan is likely to stand at around 7 to the US dollar by the end of 2018″.


    All of the issues addressed in the article are done so through the prism of confident realism as are the subsequent suggestions offered in the piece. But even more important than fiscal reforms, a continued emphasis on economic openness, corporation tax reductions and domestic capital management is a long term plan that many far weaker economies have had to face with urgency.

    The reality of the new era in global economics signifies the United States transforming from a largely predictable economic giant to a more capricious economic power and as a result an unreliable economic partner for both long time allies and countries which the US labels as rivals. Because China is a substantial exporter of goods into the US market, America has more to lose than China during the initial course of the current trade war. However, in the long term, China must apprehend the new reality that much though many US businesses and consumers depend on Chinese products, the US is not a sustainable economic partner given the tendencies of the current administration to use tariffs, sanctions and non-tariff trade barriers as aggressive weapons against other nations rather than as mild corrective mechanisms that have no wider strategic bearing on future relations.

    Turkey which quite unlike China runs a trading deficit with the US has learned this lesson the hard way as the US abruptly increased punitive tariffs on Turkey while threatening further tariffs and sanctions against Ankara over the comparatively obscure matter of the suspected terrorist collaborator Andrew Brunson – a US citizen currently under house arrest in Turkey. But as I have previously written, the Brunson matter simply provided the Trump administration with the optics necessary to justify an economic war on Turkey. If it weren’t for Brunson the US would have found something else. The fact that the US is currently engaged in either a tariff or sanction war (or both) against the European Union, Russia, China, Japan, India, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Canada, Syria, Mexico and both Korean states, makes it is clear that when it comes to economic warfare, no excuse is needed for the White House other than vague statements about being treated “unfairly” by major and medium sized trading partners. Any further rhetorical justifications for the policies of economic aggression are in reality surplus to requirement so far as the US is concerned.

    Because of this, China must be prepared for the reality of a medium to long term future where access to the US market cannot be taken for granted in any sense. Because of this, it is essential for China to radically adjust its long term export strategy along the lines which China is already taking. In addition to expanding the sustainable potency of the Chinese domestic market – the world’s largest national market based on purchasing power party, China is working on securing new free trade deals with a variety of partners including the de-facto Russian led Eurasian Economic Union. China is also working with multiple African countries to help expand national economies that in the future will become important consumers of Chinese products as African purchasing power and living standards continue to rise as a result of Chinese investment and cooperative developmental endeavours.

    Beyond this, if the European Union continues to feel the heat from its traditional US ally, even major European businesses will have little choice but to defy the parochial history Brussels’ policies on trade. To put it bluntly, the EU has no real opportunity for sustainable long term growth without a free trading arrangement of some kind with China. Such a line of thinking has already gained much traction in the powerful German industrial sector. But while the US is still a large and therefore crucial market to all major exporters including China, it is far from a bedrock of stability even though previous decades tended to suggest otherwise. In this sense, any and all exports sent to the US not just by China but by the rest of Asia, Latin America and Europe must be thought of as a substantial economic bonus rather than something which can be easily be factored into a long term sustainable trading strategy.

    Even if Donald Trump proves to be an anomaly compared to his eventual successor (almost certainly in the year 2024 rather than 2020), the geo-economic precedents he has set will likely continue for the foreseeable future as countries throughout the world adjust their trading strategy away from the United States.

    China is better prepared than any other nation to meet this challenge. The only novel element to recent events so far as China is concerned is the rapidity with which the present shifts are occurring. China will in fact have to whether a mild storm in the same way that a pre-1997 Hong Kong did so in the manner that Lee Kuan Yew accurately observed. Likewise, China’s ability to whether this storm will not only be to its own long term advantage but will be to the advantage of both major developing economies throughout Asia, Latin America and Africa as well as the strong but far too often stagnant economies of Europe who are all looking for a global anchor as a trading and financial partner in an era where the US market remains attractive but is for far too many nations, hostile and partly inaccessible in comparison with recent decades.

    By strengthening existing partnerships and by working with new partners, China can help shape a new economic era for the wider world based on trust, transparency and economic openness in order to replace the zero-sum mentality of the Trump years with the win-win security of the parallel Xi years.

    https://www.eurasiafuture.com/2018/08/17/china-can-no-longer-rely-on-the-us-market-as-a-source-of-stability-for-its-exports/

  11. #9
    Junon's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Salaam

    Another update

    Blurb


    So today the God-Emperor announced $200 billion in new trade tariffs targeted against Chinese imports, and he's also made it clear that if China goes ahead and retaliates he's going to go ahead and drop even more tariffs on them as well. Now this, of course, has all the usual suspects, all the free traders, all the neocons, all the people who think that responding "uh, Ricardo" is a meaningful response to tariffs, in a tizzy. And they've been upset about this, they've been arguing their theory over and over and over again ever since the first tariffs were announced a couple months ago, but if you noticed something, what hasn't happened, what consequences were predicted by all of these doomsayers didn't come to pass.

    Instead what happened is what anti-free trade people like myself predicted would happen, and what proper economic theory, conventional economic theory, predicts would happen - the economy grew! This is not difficult, this is not at all hard.



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    Junon's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Salaam

    Another update

    Blurb

    Over the past 2 years, trade tensions between the US and China have been at an all time high. Both sides have fought in trade with damaging consequences for the global economy, and despite recent hopes that a new deal would be reached between the 2 economic superpowers, that confidence was diminished on the 5th of May, by President Donald Trump who is to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports.



  14. #11
    CuriousonTruth's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Trade war is good for muslim countries as it temporarily distracts USA and the West from muslims. The more hostile the two countries become, the more resources and attention USA has to give to China.

  15. #12
    Abz2000's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Devalue own currency, put a very low tariff on food imports, use dollars to buy food for social distribution, and raw materials for production and the ability to supply jobs and continue in genuine legitimate trade.
    That way (even though diminished substantially since the bretton woods pledge and subsequent treachery), the bearers of fiat dollars are repaid while they are yet somewhat redeemable -though fast diminishing towards scrap paper value since they are pegged neither to gold, nor silver, but to the credibility of the north-american government...and we know how valuable that is -not worth a continental.


    Bear in mind that the north-american government declared bankruptcy in 1971 - resulting in nixon shock - from which it never actually recovered - maybe some are awaiting trump shock?




    كَيْفَ وَإِن يَظْهَرُوا۟ عَلَيْكُمْ لَا يَرْقُبُوا۟ فِيكُمْ إِلًّا وَلَا ذِمَّةًۚ يُرْضُونَكُم بِأَفْوَٰهِهِمْ وَتَأْبَىٰ قُلُوبُهُمْ وَأَكْثَرُهُمْ فَٰسِقُونَ

    How (can there be such a league), seeing that if they get an advantage over you, they respect not in you the ties either of kinship or of covenant? With (fair words from) their mouths they entice you, but their hearts are averse from you; and most of them are rebellious and wicked.

    ٱشْتَرَوْا۟ بِـَٔايَٰتِ ٱللَّهِ ثَمَنًا قَلِيلًا فَصَدُّوا۟ عَن سَبِيلِهِۦٓۚ إِنَّهُمْ سَآءَ مَا كَانُوا۟ يَعْمَلُونَ

    The Signs of Allah have they sold for a miserable price, and (many) have they hindered from His way: evil indeed are the deeds they have done.

    لَا يَرْقُبُونَ فِى مُؤْمِنٍ إِلًّا وَلَا ذِمَّةًۚ وَأُو۟لَٰٓئِكَ هُمُ ٱلْمُعْتَدُونَ

    In a Believer they respect not the ties either of kinship or of covenant! It is they who have transgressed all bounds.

    فَإِن تَابُوا۟ وَأَقَامُوا۟ ٱلصَّلَوٰةَ وَءَاتَوُا۟ ٱلزَّكَوٰةَ فَإِخْوَٰنُكُمْ فِى ٱلدِّينِۗ وَنُفَصِّلُ ٱلْءَايَٰتِ لِقَوْمٍ يَعْلَمُونَ

    But (even so), if they repent, establish regular prayers, and practise regular charity,- they are your brethren in Faith: (thus) do We explain the Signs in detail, for those who understand.

    وَإِن نَّكَثُوٓا۟ أَيْمَٰنَهُم مِّنۢ بَعْدِ عَهْدِهِمْ وَطَعَنُوا۟ فِى دِينِكُمْ فَقَٰتِلُوٓا۟ أَئِمَّةَ ٱلْكُفْرِۙ إِنَّهُمْ لَآ أَيْمَٰنَ لَهُمْ لَعَلَّهُمْ يَنتَهُونَ

    But if they violate their oaths after their covenant, and taunt you for your Faith,- fight ye the chiefs of Unfaith: for their oaths are nothing to them: that thus they may be restrained.

    أَلَا تُقَٰتِلُونَ قَوْمًا نَّكَثُوٓا۟ أَيْمَٰنَهُمْ وَهَمُّوا۟ بِإِخْرَاجِ ٱلرَّسُولِ وَهُم بَدَءُوكُمْ أَوَّلَ مَرَّةٍۚ أَتَخْشَوْنَهُمْۚ فَٱللَّهُ أَحَقُّ أَن تَخْشَوْهُ إِن كُنتُم مُّؤْمِنِينَ

    Will ye not fight people who violated their oaths, plotted to expel the Messenger, and took the aggressive by being the first (to assault) you? Do ye fear them? Nay, it is Allah Whom ye should more justly fear, if ye believe!

    قَٰتِلُوهُمْ يُعَذِّبْهُمُ ٱللَّهُ بِأَيْدِيكُمْ وَيُخْزِهِمْ وَيَنصُرْكُمْ عَلَيْهِمْ وَيَشْفِ صُدُورَ قَوْمٍ مُّؤْمِنِينَ

    Fight them, and Allah will punish them by your hands, cover them with shame, help you (to victory) over them, heal the breasts of Believers,

    وَيُذْهِبْ غَيْظَ قُلُوبِهِمْۗ وَيَتُوبُ ٱللَّهُ عَلَىٰ مَن يَشَآءُۗ وَٱللَّهُ عَلِيمٌ حَكِيمٌ

    And still the indignation of their hearts. For Allah will turn (in mercy) to whom He will; and Allah is All-Knowing, All-Wise.


    At-Taubah 9:8-15
    Last edited by Abz2000; 05-18-2019 at 09:09 AM.
    Trade War: What is it good for?













  16. #13
    waqas.ali's Avatar
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    Re: Trade War: What is it good for?

    Islamic charity is must in Islam as you know Islam is a religion of helping the poor, feeding the hunger and with your charity it is possible to do this.


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