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    Oh Syria the victory is coming (OP)




    shiekh muhammad al arifi

    Oh Syria the victory is coming

    Allah made everyone different thats what makes them special,so no matter what ppl say just remember you're SPECIAL!!
    "You are with the one you love"
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    Re: Oh Syria the victory is coming

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    Quote Originally Posted by Junon View Post
    Salaam

    Another update

    Blurb

    Why is the USA spending hundreds of billions of dollars in Syria? Who is in control? What is their agenda?

    Please brother refrain from qouting someone who dosen't know anything of what is happening and someone who has nothing but false informations. When did the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia join forces to overthrow the government in syria? All these 3 countries are allied with Assad while strongly denying him in public and on the media and while Israel is even going further by attacking him which is indirectly helping him. The truth is that they have lowly picture off him so they don't claim him due to the crimes he has commited but nevertheless they are allied with him in order to destroy some of the rebels they deem as enemies and not all rebels

    If they wanted him gone he would have been gone because they have the military to take him out within a month or 2 months. As I have said previously most people have no idea what is happening and why this 3 countries are acting the way they are acting
    Last edited by urkahnkhan; 5 Days Ago at 02:51 AM.

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    Junon's Avatar
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    Re: Oh Syria the victory is coming

    Salaam

    Quote Originally Posted by urkahnkhan View Post
    Please brother refrain from qouting someone who dosen't know anything of what is happening and someone who has nothing but false informations. When did the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia join forces to overthrow the government in syria? All these 3 countries are allied with Assad while strongly denying him in public and on the media and while Israel is even going further by attacking him which is indirectly helping him. The truth is that they have lowly picture off him so they don't claim him due to the crimes he has commited but nevertheless they are allied with him in order to destroy some of the rebels they deem as enemies and not all rebels

    If they wanted him gone he would have been gone because they have the military to take him out within a month or 2 months. As I have said previously most people have no idea what is happening and why this 3 countries are acting the way they are acting
    I agree some of your assessment but I have disagree on your opinion of Blackstone Intelligence. Blackstone Intelligence gets things wrong (for instance his dismissive attitude towards the rebellion which I strongly disagree with) and misses things (its an American perspective) but its generally reliable or at least worth a listen.

    They initially wanted Assad to step down but changed their mind half way through the conflict, particularity with the unexpected rise of Daesh and the American reluctance to commit due to their previous experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you really think its as simple as removing Assad? Just like it was really simple to remove Saddam? We all know what happened afterwards don't we? The American public wouldn't tolerate another occupation of another Middle Eastern country.

    The unexpected election of Trump was another game changer, he wants out (will the deep state let him that's another question) hence the decline in the rebellion.

    On Israels objective, they want to see the division and destruction of Syria, so they have achieved their goal on that front but so far haven't achieved Iranian withdrawal.

    On Saudi Arabias initial role.



    They used the rebels as proxies but when they realised they weren't going to get their way, washed their hands of them. In fact the failure of the Saudis to achieve their objectives was the catalyst for the decline of the old elite and the rise of MBS.

    There's is a lot of smoke and mirrors, It seems they've settled on Assad (for now) and want an end to this rebellion.
    Last edited by Junon; 3 Days Ago at 10:36 PM.

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    Re: Oh Syria the victory is coming

    Salaam

    Some big events happening, Turkey and Russia seem to have reached an agreement to stop the escalation in Idlib. Before that another update on the situation



    Dr Shajul Islam interviewed. Israeli TV of all places. . . . .



    What passes for Leftwing discourse on the Syrian conflict. Exaggerated but you get the idea.



    Protests against the coming offensive.















    Last edited by Junon; 2 Days Ago at 09:32 PM.

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    Re: Oh Syria the victory is coming

    Salaam

    Another update. Wasnt expecting this, deal made between Russia and Turkey.




    Citizens remain wary of Russia but Idlib truce better than bombing

    Surprise initiative welcome respite for Syrian opposition and people of the province


    Relieved locals and rebel groups in Idlib have been trying to unpick details of an eleventh-hour truce that excludes much of the northern Syrian province from a Russian-led attack for at least one month and sets up a buffer zone intended to shield 3 million civilians.

    The surprise initiative, brokered by Turkey and Russia on Monday, assuages fears of an immediate widespread humanitarian catastrophe and sets the scene for a swathe of northern Syria to remain out of central government control indefinitely.

    The arrangement strengthens the role of Turkish-backed rebels in the northern province, and is likely to lead hardline groups to make a tactical retreat to southern Idlib where, for now, they will remain out of the sights of Russian and Syrian guns.

    The move is a welcome respite for Syrian opposition groups, who had feared a massive attack aimed at returning the final rebel-held province to central government control, allowing Bashar al-Assad to clinch victory in the seven-year war.

    As momentum built towards an attack, Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran, grew increasingly wary of the political price they would end up paying by bringing about a humanitarian crisis unlike any other in the Syrian war.

    Weeks of belligerent rhetoric from Tehran and Moscow had increasingly softened in recent days and been replaced by common ground with Ankara – a central backer of what remains of the anti-Assad opposition, which has increasingly muscled in on northern Syria and saw its own interests unravelling if chaos was ignited along its border.

    “Civilians in Idlib think this is a good deal, they feel hopeful and happy concerning it,” said Mahmoud Abbi, a spokesperson for Free Idlib Police, a rebel-backed local police force. “We are grateful for Turkey’s efforts to prevent the Russian and Assad attack on Idlib. However … we do not trust Russia about the deal. But for now it is better than displacement or bombing.

    “The deal is for Turkey’s security but it is also face-saving for Putin and by association Assad,” he said. “Iran refused to participate in this attack because of its own bad military and economic situation. The Assad regime is weak and has no ability to attack without the help of Iranian militias.”

    The Assad regime was not represented at the bilateral summit between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the Russian resort town of Sochi, and not was it present at a trilateral summit with Iran in Tehran one week ago. The Syrian government had no immediate response to the development, which appears likely to consolidate Turkey’s presence in the north, giving Erdogan a stronger hand in managing the final stages of the war – and aftermath.

    Central to the truce is the removal of an extremist coalition from the buffer zone, the dimensions of which are yet to be finalised. Turkish and Russian intelligence officials will soon meet to thrash out the numbers of radical rebels required to leave the province. The agreement suggests that those who agree to exit will be given safe passage to the eastern Hama desert region.

    Jawad Abdel Karim, 40, a spokesman for the Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) umbrella group of hardline fighters, said his organisation is, for now, expected to retreat up to 7km (4.3 miles) away from the agreed demarcation point. Forces loyal to the Assad regime, meanwhile, would retreat 10km away. “Give or take, the distance between the opposition and regime will be 15km,” he said.

    The Iranian foreign minister, Mohammed Zarif, said he welcomed the apparent breakthrough, adding weight to a growing belief that the deal, or a variation of it, would hold. “Intensive responsible diplomacy over the last few weeks-pursued in my visits to Ankara and Damascus, followed by the Iran-Russia-Turkey Summit in Tehran and the meeting in Sochi-is succeeding to avert war in Idlib with a firm commitment to fight extremist terror. Diplomacy works,” Zarif wrote on Twitter.

    HTS, and earlier incarnations of it, has been a significant presence throughout Idlib for the past three years. It has been particularly strong in the south, but has attempted to impose austere theocratic rule in many towns and cities. The numbers of ideologically driven fighters in its ranks have been difficult to gauge. Thousands of men had joined the organisation because of its strength. But as its momentum wanes, the powerful group is starting to lose impetus in some parts of Idlib.

    Large-scale demonstrations resembling the earliest days of the Syrian uprising have taken place in northern towns, and gone unchallenged by the organisation. “We hate the brutal regime and HTS as well,” said Abbi. “We will create pressure to make HTS dismantle and disappear, which will make the [de-escalation zone deal] safer. We will continue to demonstrate against all radical groups and we will unite civilians and the Free Syrian Army against them.”

    While parts of Idlib appeared to rally behind the truce, not all were convinced that it would hold. “Although we agree with the points mentioned in the agreement between Erdoğan and Putin, have they ever got a result before?” asked Abu Wissam, 32. “Civilians on the ground are still living in fear and worry. We’re all hesitant and we’re all doubtful. And we have nothing to say any more. Our voices went hoarse with demands and no one listened.”

    Another Idlib local, Ahmed Hallaq, 34, said: We had bigger dreams and goals than this agreement. All of Syria should have been safe from the Assad regime and his militias, not just a buffer zone. Lots of my friends around here think the same. We don’t trust the regime, we have zero trust in its morals and promises. They violated most, if not everything else that’s been agreed on.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/18/surprise-truce-brokered-by-turkey-and-russia-spares-idlib-for-now

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  8. #405
    Junon's Avatar
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    Re: Oh Syria the victory is coming

    Salaam

    A very good discussion, Starts at 22:00.

    Blurb

    Moazzam Begg (CAGE) joins Dr Salman Butt to discuss the importance and potential catastrophe facing Idlib, Syria.

    Last edited by Junon; 2 Days Ago at 10:47 AM.

  9. #406
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    Re: Oh Syria the victory is coming

    Salaam

    Another update




    Russia and Israel step back from brink after Syria downs military plane

    Moscow's rhetoric moves from 'irresponsible actions' to 'tragic circumstances'


    Vladimir Putin has looked to downplay the potential of a serious diplomatic rift between the Kremlin and the Knesset following the downing of a Russian military plane late on Monday evening.

    Fifteen Russian servicemen died after an Il-20 reconnaissance plane was struck down in a friendly fire incident involving Syrian S-200 anti aircraft defences that had targeted Israeli jets.

    Speaking on Tuesday afternoon, Mr Putin said the incident was the result of a “tragic chain of accidental events”. His measured comments diverged from an earlier, furious response.

    In the early morning, the Russian Defence Ministry intimated the plane had been hit by Israeli or French fire. Later, spokesmen changed the story, accepting the plane had been shot down by the Syrians. But they ratcheted up the diplomatic fury.

    In quick succession, Moscow said Russians had died as a result of Israel’s “irresponsible actions.” It blamed the Israeli command for giving just a minute’s advance warning of its air strikes. It accused their pilots of using the larger Il-20 plane as cover during missions. It summoned the Israeli ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Smolenskaya Square and it gave Israel’s defence minister a public dressing-down.

    “The actions of the Israeli defence ministry do not reflect the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership,” Sergei Shoigu, the Russian minister of defence told Israeli opposite number, Avigdor Lieberman. “We reserve the right to take further steps.”

    The fierce response suggested a difficult period ahead for Russian-Israeli relations.

    Until that point, cooperation between the two countries had been close. In May, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu attended Victory Day celebrations in Moscow in a symbolic gesture at the height of the Kremlin’s international isolation. Russia also seemed to accept Israel’s strategic interests in the region.

    “There was a lot of trust between the two sides,” said Yuri Barmin, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council on Tuesday. “It was seriously undermined today.”

    The incident brought back memories of November 2015, when a Turkish fighter shot down a Russian Su-24 jet that had violated Turkish airspace. Russia retaliated with sanctions and seven months of hostile relations ensued.

    Some of Russia’s more excitable politicians suggested Moscow could respond by supplying Damascus with more advanced C-300 anti aircraft systems – a kind that would prove more problematic for Israeli planners.

    “Russia simply can’t let this drop,” said Franz Klintsevich, member of the Russian senate’s Defence Committee.

    But the likelihood of a serious military response from Russia was always low. Even if it wanted to, Russia does not have the capacity to close Syrian air space to Israeli jets.

    More fundamentally, it was never going to wade into the undeclared war between Israel and Iran.

    “Russia will not stand in the way of Israeli operations to stop Iranian expansion, knowing how existential they are seen in Jerusalem,” said Jonathan Spyer, research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute of Strategic Studies. “Moscow is trying to be friends with everyone – with Assad, Israel, Turkey, the Kurds. That, of course, is the source of the problem.”

    In his afternoon comments, Mr Putin urged against a direct comparison to the Turkish Su-24 incident. That was an intentional strike he said; this was “an accident.”

    The president’s unexpectedly mild response brought into question how much of the initial show of anger against Israel was real – and how much a tactic of deflection from a military that had made mistakes.

    “Russia understood it has only itself to blame for not making sure the Syrians had the right friend-or-foe identification systems,” said Vladimir Frolov, a security expert and former Kremlin advisor.

    There were other, more obvious questions to be asked. How was it that communication with Syrian allies broke down? How could an anti aircraft system mistake a large reconnaissance plane for a fighter jet?

    Part of the answer lay in the technology, suggested Justin Bronk, a research fellow at RUSI, an international defence and security think tank based in London.

    Designed in the Soviet Union in the 1950s, the Syrian S-200 surface to air missile unit is not a failproof system, he said. Without newer fire control and radar systems, it would have had difficulty differentiating between the two planes.

    “If Syrian defences were attempting to lock onto Israeli jets in the same vicinity [as] the Il-20, especially in the face of jamming signals, it is entirely plausible that they inadvertently guided the S-200 onto the Russian aircraft,” Mr Bronk.

    A lax approach to firing the missiles may also have played a role.

    “During recent attacks, the Syrians have tried to give their public an impression of having effective defences,” said Mr Bronk. “So they have fired missiles blindly – on simple ballistic trajectories, or at least with very weak firing solutions. That may have contributed.”

    In a statement released on Twitter, the Israeli Defence Forces said the blame for the incident lay “firmly with the Syrian regime,” which had fired missiles “indiscriminately” in response to Israeli airstrikes.

    But the statement also expressed “sorrow for the death of the aircrew members of the Russian plane”.

    That show of humility may have given Mr Putin enough to move on.

    “The operational dynamic may change slightly, but the politics can’t change,” added Mr Barmin. “Russian doesn’t have so many allies that it can throw one of them under the bus.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8543296.html
    Last edited by Junon; 1 Day Ago at 11:21 PM.

  10. #407
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    Re: Oh Syria the victory is coming

    Salaam

    More analysis on the deal between Turkey and Russia.

    Russia-Turkey deal may delay, but not prevent, a battle for Syria’s Idlib province

    Syrians disagreed Tuesday about what a new Russia-Turkey deal means, casting into doubt whether it will ultimately prevent a potentially devastating war for control of the Syrian province of Idlib.

    The deal announced Monday has been broadly welcomed as an opportunity to forestall the full-scale Syrian government offensive against Idlib that has been widely feared, averting the humanitarian catastrophe it was expected to trigger.

    Under the broad terms of the agreement outlined by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia and Turkey will jointly oversee the creation of a nine-mile demilitarized zone between rebel and Syrian government lines intended to keep the two sides apart.

    But it remains unclear whether the deal will prevent an eventual conflict in the area, said Lina Khatib of London’s Chatham House think tank.

    “We definitely should not think that the Idlib deal is the ultimate deal. What we are seeing is only a measure for the time being. It is not the endgame for Idlib,” she said. “At best, this deal postpones a potential confrontation in Idlib rather than completely eliminates the possibility of an offensive.”

    Unusually for Syria, however, the deal was welcomed by all sides as an opportunity to avert, at least for now, the immense suffering that a battle would inflict on the more than 3 million civilians in the northwestern province. It would also avoid the heavy losses that government forces would incur in launching the biggest battle of the Syrian war.

    The Syrian government said in a statement carried by the official Syrian Arab New Agency that it “welcomed any initiative that stops bloodshed and contributes to security and stability in each inch that was struck by terrorism.”

    Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran, a close ally of Syria, played a role in negotiating the agreement, which he hailed as evidence that “diplomacy works.”

    Idlib residents took to the streets to demonstrate against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and celebrate their relief that an offensive had at least been deferred.

    But it also appeared as though the government and the Syrian opposition have different understandings of where the deal will lead, calling into question its chances for success. All that is known for now, according to the statements issued by Putin and Erdogan, is that the demilitarized zone is to be established by Oct. 15 along a horseshoe-shaped line roughly corresponding to the borders of Idlib province.

    Extremist-linked groups are expected to retreat from the buffer zone to areas farther north. The Turkish-backed rebels in the area are allowed to remain but are expected to move their heavy weapons out of the zone.

    No further details were given, leaving many questions unanswered, including the eventual fate of the province.

    According to Russian diplomats quoted by the pro-regime Syrian daily al-Watan, the plan envisages a second deadline in November by which all rebel and extremist groups are to surrender their heavy weapons throughout Idlib province. The Syrian government would then restore its authority across the province by the end of the year, al-Watan said.

    Capt. Naji Mustafa, a Syrian rebel spokesman, said the opposition has not been informed of any such arrangements and would not agree to the return of Assad regime authority in any part of Idlib. Although the rebels welcome the halt to plans for an imminent offensive, they are going to refrain from committing to the deal, including the surrender of heavy weapons, until the details have been made available, he said.

    “Until now, we only have the highlights,” he said. “We need details.”

    One concern, Mustafa said, is that the rebels would surrender their artillery, tanks and armored vehicles only to be subjected to a government offensive after all.

    “The Russians are known to be deceitful and untrustworthy, and we are going to keep up our vigilance against being double-crossed,” he said. “They have not abided by agreements in the past, and we don’t trust the Russians.”

    It is also unclear whether the al-Qaeda-linked groups in the area would agree to leave, given the understanding repeatedly stated by Russia and Turkey that the goal is to eliminate extremist groups from Idlib, said Sam Heller of the International Crisis Group. Those groups include Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which was formerly known as Syria’s al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and Hurras al-Deen, a smaller al-Qaeda-allied group.

    It will presumably fall to Turkey to persuade the Islamist militant groups to leave, but how is not spelled out, Heller said. “What has been disclosed publicly as part of this new deal seems as if it would be intolerable to Tahrir al-Sham,” he said.

    Russia and Turkey may not have figured out all the fine print yet, Khatib said, and the agreement at least buys time for them to continue negotiations and secure buy-in from their respective allies.

    Working to the deal’s advantage are the geopolitical alignments that favor a continued alliance between Turkey and Russia in Syria, she said. Russia has an interest in keeping Turkey on the side to secure Moscow’s broader ambition of establishing itself as an important regional player beyond Syria’s borders.

    Turkey has a stake in upholding its Russia alliance as a lever against U.S. support for the Kurdish militia in northeastern Syria, which Erdogan described as the “biggest threat” to Syria’s future.

    “The deal will succeed if both sides are committed, and they seem to be,” said Mohammed Karkas, a Syrian opposition supporter in the Idlib town of Maarat al-Numaan. “I think this deal will work because it’s a deal between nations, between governments.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russia-turkey-deal-may-delay-but-not-prevent-a-battle-for-syrias-idlib-province/2018/09/18/9e9050d0-bb4b-11e8-adb8-01125416c102_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8b 379b0e7dc7

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