× Register Login What's New! Contact us
Results 1 to 7 of 7 visibility 1882

The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble

  1. #1
    Singularity's Avatar Full Member
    brightness_1
    Full Member
    star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate
    Join Date
    May 2017
    Gender
    Male
    Religion
    Christianity
    Posts
    309
    Threads
    222
    Rep Power
    42
    Rep Ratio
    19
    Likes Ratio
    15

    The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble

    Report bad ads?

    https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...uble-1.6217937


    Home > Middle East News
    Analysis The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble
    but will the latest round of protests topple it?


    Zvi Bar'elSendSend me email alerts
    Jun 28, 2018 4:05 PM
    A group of protesters chant slogans at the main gate of old grand bazaar in Tehran, Iran, June 25, 2018./AP
    Iran's World Cup dream is still alive. Across the Middle East, it's losing the tournament
    'Large number' of demonstrators arrested after mass protests close Iran's Grand Bazaar
    Day after mass protests, Iran's Rohani vows to weather new U.S. sanctions



    Judging by the enthusiastic reactions in Israel to the renewal of the demonstrations in Iran this week, you’d be forgiven for inferring that the Islamic Republic is nearing collapse, soon to be replaced by a Western-style democracy, and that the nuclear deal will be abrogated and Iran will withdraw its forces from Syria and sign a peace agreement with Israel.


    But going by the blogs and the traffic on the social media that haven’t been blocked in Iran, the Israeli-American dream is far from coming true.


    To really understand Israel and the Middle East - subscribe to Haaretz


    This week’s protests were not the biggest in Iran this year. At least two dozen Iranians were killed in massive demonstrations in many cities in January. They were followed by strikes and work stoppages in the intervening months, as well as sit-ins outside government offices. There’s no reason to see the voluntary closure this week of shops in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and protesters shouting “death to the dictator” and “death to Khamenei and Rohani” (as they also did six months ago) as a sign that the entire country is about to shut down.






    >> Iran may have scored in the World Cup, but not in Mideast ■ Israel's alleged Syria strikes signal the world is getting ready to act on Iran
    File photo: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rohani in Tehran./AP
    But just as the strikes and demonstrations didn’t begin this week, the economic crisis is also the result of four decades of corruption, dysfunctional government, political power struggles and international sanctions. The numbers aren’t pretty. The rial plunged to 90,000 to the dollar; the official unemployment rate is 12 percent; oil exports have declined by about half a million barrels a day and might decline even further as the effect of the renewed U.S. American sanctions increases.


    The European Union, meanwhile, is making no effort to keep its promise to comply with the terms of the nuclear agreement even after the United States pulled out. Iran’s national debt is climbing, foreign companies are leaving and inflation is eroding consumers’ buying power.


    On the other hand, Iran is not a poor country. Its foreign currency reserves are estimated at over $140 billion. The country’s sovereign wealth fund, the National Development Fund of Iran, receives 20 percent of all revenues. Its reserves exceed $50 billion. China and Russia have promised to maintain their trade with Iran. China, Iran’s biggest oil customer, has said it will increase its purchases and even invest in developing new oil fields. Turkey will also avoid complying with the renewed U.S. sanctions for now, and Tehran’s plans to cut national spending should help keep the economy afloat.




    But the economic crisis can’t be measured by macro data alone. Iran is mired in a crisis of confidence and a crisis of frustration. The former stems from the fact that President Hassan Rohani has been unable to keep most of his promises: to create new jobs, to implement economic reforms and to improve human rights.


    Even before the United States abandoned the nuclear deal, Iranians’ confidence in their government was eroded by the cancellation of some subsidies, the removal of millions of people from the welfare rolls and the spending of billions of dollars on wars in Syria and Yemen instead of at home.


    Added to that is frustration that the nuclear deal did not bring about the promised economic revolution. Iranians were willing to wait patiently for economic renewal when it seemed nearer than ever. After the nuclear deal was signed in 2015, multinational companies began opening local headquarters. The purchase of Boeing and Airbus passenger planes signaled the opening of the skies and tourism development. The partnership with Peugeot and Citroen, the bonanza enjoyed by car dealers, the plans for a new port that would connect India and China via Iran and the shelves filled with imported merchandise gave Iranians the feeling the nuclear treaty was bearing fruit.


    The main cause of the frustration that fueled the demonstrations in January was the slow pace and insufficient scope of economic development and recovery. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal and the predictions of impending disaster as a result spoiled the party. The government prohibited the import of over 1,400 items, claiming that there were local substitutes. Iranians were asked not to buy dollars and to limit their foreign travel. Money changers were arrested for allegedly running up the dollar exchange rate, car prices soared by tens of percentage points when Peugeot and Citroen left the Iranian market and the panic to maintain the value of their money pushed civilians into purchasing more dollars, more gold, and for anyone who could afford it, real estate, which caused housing prices to speak.




    This fear had an immediate effect on the dollar exchange rate that spoiled the government’s plan to combine the official dollar rate with the black market rate, and to peg it at 42,000 rials per dollar. In order to deal with the dollar crisis, the government came up with an idea of dubious efficacy, which was opposed to official policy — to introduce a parallel foreign exchange market with three dollar rates: 40,000 rials, 60,000 rials and the black market rate. It’s unclear how the market will work and whether it will succeed in calming the rush for dollars that causes price rises every day.


    Government spokesmen claim the crisis is psychological rather than due to genuine economic ills, and are now trying to bring down the price of the rial. The president will probably announce a change of government officials, like that carried out in Jordan and Egypt. But in Iran, the economy is not managed only by the president. There is also a Resistance Economy council established by Supreme Religious Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is deeply involved in the crisis, which means that any public complaint about the economy is targeting Khamenei as well as Rohani.


    Khamenei is in a dilemma and must decide on his priorities. For him, Iran’s involvement in Syria and Yemen is not only a matter of national security, but a matter of prestige, especially due to his fight with Saudi Arabia. These wars cost billions of dollars, but pulling out could pit Khamenei against the Revolutionary Guards, who hold half and more of the Iranian economy. He will face a similar threat if he cuts their budget, which has soared since last year. Reducing government expenditures would cause the unemployment of hundreds of thousands of officials, and the loss of billions in taxes. A greater cut in subsidies is liable to lead to violent rebellion.




    Rohani hopes that the present crisis will cause the supreme leadership to allow him to implement the necessary reforms, but Khamenei may try to oust him, in order to blame him and his government for the crisis. A few members of parliament have urged him to resign or to dismiss his economy ministers and economic advisers.


    In that case radical elements would probably run a replacement, and some are talking about Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, as the next president. So when in the West they’re talking about the chances of bringing down the regime, in Iran they’re talking about replacing the leadership, in order to preserve the regime.


    A photo of Dr. Zvi Bar'el.
    chat Quote

  2. Report bad ads?
  3. #2
    سيف الله's Avatar Full Member
    brightness_1
    IB Oldtimer
    star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    UK
    Gender
    Male
    Religion
    Islam
    Posts
    3,941
    Threads
    334
    Rep Power
    95
    Rep Ratio
    16
    Likes Ratio
    15

    Re: The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble

    Salaam

    Seems Western powers, (among many others) are planning to topple the government of Iran. A through look at how this is going to be achieved.



    The plans are well advanced.

    Edit -

    More comment and analysis.

    Blurb


    In this edition of Probable Cause, Newsbud’s Founder & Editor Sibel Edmonds delivers a powerful message to the Iranian people, based on the bloody track record from America’s ‘liberation wars.’ Edmonds documents the real cost of these foreign interventions as she examines countries like Syria, Libya and Iraq, both before and after being ‘liberated.’

    Last edited by سيف الله; 07-21-2018 at 06:52 AM.
    chat Quote

  4. #3
    سيف الله's Avatar Full Member
    brightness_1
    IB Oldtimer
    star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    UK
    Gender
    Male
    Religion
    Islam
    Posts
    3,941
    Threads
    334
    Rep Power
    95
    Rep Ratio
    16
    Likes Ratio
    15

    Re: The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble

    Salaam

    Oh dear, not this again



    Trump the internet warrior responds.



    Some responses



    chat Quote

  5. #4
    Abz2000's Avatar Full Member
    brightness_1
    Abz Iz Back!!!
    star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Around the bend from Venus - Just before Mars
    Gender
    Male
    Religion
    Islam
    Posts
    5,357
    Threads
    150
    Rep Power
    108
    Rep Ratio
    86
    Likes Ratio
    55

    Re: The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble

    Trump and Rouhani appear to have become acting partners who in reality betray the countries they claim to represent on the stage.

    Agent of mother of harlots:
    Lol rouhani, we're losing credibility, quick let's try and pretend we're appeasing our fake Annuit Coeptis god "democracy".


    Hayta lak ya POS, but how?

    You blabber on about mother of all battles like our last disposable agent saddam, then i'll WINK, and say:
    "I love my darling retards, don't you dare call us sl@gs, can't you see my muscles?"


    "Phew - well that worked with our retarded majorities , will they take the bait and worship us back for pretending to worship them? If they get too angry at us and threaten our rule - we'll have to drain them and their resources out by using them in bravado robot wars as we do some fake shadow boxing.
    Last edited by Abz2000; 07-24-2018 at 06:27 AM.
    The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble




    2dvls74 1 - The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble


    2vw9341 1 - The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble




    chat Quote

  6. Report bad ads?
  7. #5
    سيف الله's Avatar Full Member
    brightness_1
    IB Oldtimer
    star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    UK
    Gender
    Male
    Religion
    Islam
    Posts
    3,941
    Threads
    334
    Rep Power
    95
    Rep Ratio
    16
    Likes Ratio
    15

    Re: The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble

    Salaam

    Another update



    chat Quote

  8. #6
    سيف الله's Avatar Full Member
    brightness_1
    IB Oldtimer
    star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    UK
    Gender
    Male
    Religion
    Islam
    Posts
    3,941
    Threads
    334
    Rep Power
    95
    Rep Ratio
    16
    Likes Ratio
    15

    Re: The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble

    Salaam

    I should of expected this. More of Trumps good cop bad cop routine.



    Blurb

    U.S. President Donald Trump has extended an olive branch to Iran, just a week after he threatened the country. Trump now says he's ready to meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani 'anytime' and without 'precondtions'. But his Secretary of State quickly backtracked Trump's statement, adding a few caveats to any potential meeting. Mike Pompeo wants to see what he calls a change in behaviour from Iran before any negotiations can go ahead. Iran was also quick to set its own conditions, saying the U.S. must rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal before any talks can happen. But what's behind this sudden offer? And how will Trump engage Iran when he's trying to build a regional alliance against it?

    Last edited by سيف الله; 07-31-2018 at 07:28 PM.
    chat Quote

  9. #7
    سيف الله's Avatar Full Member
    brightness_1
    IB Oldtimer
    star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate star_rate
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    UK
    Gender
    Male
    Religion
    Islam
    Posts
    3,941
    Threads
    334
    Rep Power
    95
    Rep Ratio
    16
    Likes Ratio
    15

    Re: The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble

    Salaam

    Another update.

    Blurb

    Following years in isolation, Iran has reentered the international stage — which for some is cause for alarm. Tehran is now engaging in dialogue and has agreed to curb its nuclear program. But it is also involved in wars in Syria and Yemen - running the risk of upsetting the sensibilities of old enemies such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US. Donald Trump has now ditched the Iran nuclear deal.

    The consequences for the Iranian economy, international trade relations and the balance of power in the Middle East remains as yet unclear. Does Iran have expansionist ambitions - not just military, but also political and economic? Or is it merely seeking to secure its borders and autonomy, and ward off the crises that are destabilizing the Middle East?

    chat Quote


  10. Hide
Hey there! The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble Looks like you're enjoying the discussion, but you're not signed up for an account.

When you create an account, we remember exactly what you've read, so you always come right back where you left off. You also get notifications, here and via email, whenever new posts are made. And you can like posts and share your thoughts. The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble
Sign Up

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-24-2018, 05:56 AM
  2. New visa regime announced in KSA
    By startingarabic in forum General
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08-09-2016, 10:38 AM
  3. ~ Nuclear Weapons Are About Regime Survival ~
    By Zman in forum World Affairs
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 06-14-2007, 02:23 AM
  4. Regime change in England?
    By therebbe in forum World Affairs
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 08-20-2006, 02:37 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
create