This requires no calculation skills or knowledge of math more complicated than counting (and basic logic).
You are standing in a room. There are three identical doors in front of you. Behind one is the super 64 trillion dollar prize, behind another is a truckload of fertilizer (stinky) and the room beyond the third is an empty room.
In comes a guy and tells you about the prizes and says: Pick a door, any door.
Knowing that the worst you can do is become owner of a truckload of (stinky) fertilizer, you clamp your nose with clothespins and pick one.
The guy says: Before I show you your prize, I'll show you what horrible possible fate you missed. And he pulls open one of the doors you didn't pick, leading either to the empty room or to the truckload of (stinky) fertilizer.
You gag (if it was the fertilizer), or take a deep breath in preparation for future gagging (in anticipation of fertilizer).
The guy says: You still have time to change your mind. You can still switch doors if you want to.
Now the question is, should you or should you not switch, and is there a mathematical advantage to doing so?
Anybody who already knows the answer, please don't answer.
You are standing in a room. There are three identical doors in front of you. Behind one is the super 64 trillion dollar prize, behind another is a truckload of fertilizer (stinky) and the room beyond the third is an empty room.
In comes a guy and tells you about the prizes and says: Pick a door, any door.
Knowing that the worst you can do is become owner of a truckload of (stinky) fertilizer, you clamp your nose with clothespins and pick one.
The guy says: Before I show you your prize, I'll show you what horrible possible fate you missed. And he pulls open one of the doors you didn't pick, leading either to the empty room or to the truckload of (stinky) fertilizer.
You gag (if it was the fertilizer), or take a deep breath in preparation for future gagging (in anticipation of fertilizer).
The guy says: You still have time to change your mind. You can still switch doors if you want to.
Now the question is, should you or should you not switch, and is there a mathematical advantage to doing so?
Anybody who already knows the answer, please don't answer.
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