Excellent post syed. Apologies if this one is overlong but the situation in Mali/Algeria is so complicated.
Just because a group announces to the world that is fighting for ‘Islamic’ objectives and Sharia law, that doesn’t mean that's their true or most important motive. The key leader, Iyad Aghali, has been a player in the region for a long time. In the past he was associated mainly with the Tuareg independence movement. At various times he has been at war with both the Algerian and Mali governments but made deals with both of them. His real motives are enigmatic but the one common factor is personal power for himself.
During the time that he made a deal with Mali he was sent as a member of Mali’s diplomatic staff to Jeddah and it’s the Saudi connection that seems to have made the difference. He was radicalised and, as a result, recalled by the Mali government. He returned as a hardliner who had put his days of partying, music and poetry behind him, and hijacked the Tuareg rebellion that was already under way.
However, in the attempt to take over the whole country he has overplayed his hand. As a result the French have also sent troops and the tide of war has turned dramatically. Aghali is therefore once again cynically looking for a ‘deal’, as he has done so many times in the past.
Mokhtar Belmokhtar
Mokhtar is the man behind the attack on the Algerian gas plant. Previously a member of AQIM (Al Qaeda in the Maghreb) he has now formed a separate group. As part of AQIM he shared in a long history of kidnapping for ransom and cigarette smuggling. From a financial point of view, they are considered to have been some of the most successful hostage takers in the world. They attacked targets in various countries including Algeria, always looking for western hostages (worth more to ransom). In September 2010, the group took seven hostages from a uranium mine in Arlit, Niger, and kidnapped four European tourists in Mali in January 2009. Killing hostages was not the prime aim, except to ‘force the pace’ in ransom negotiations.
This recent attack follows a similar pattern except that this time, they have introduced a new ‘Islamic’ political objective. It’s not clear from events whether they meant to get trapped in the plant, or whether they expected to take the hostages elsewhere. Either way, the ‘Islamic’ justification is a new description for old behaviour and looks like opportunism.
The Tuaregs
The Tuaregs are big losers in this because their bid for an independent state now looks further away than ever. Had the Islamic hardliners not hijacked their rebellion they might have succeeded in creating a semi-independent state in North Mali (which you can choose to view as a good or a bad thing). But when Aghali continued the invasion into the south that possibility ended.
It's always difficult because Tuareg territory cuts inconveniently across many other countries (just like the Kurds). In the past they made their living from cross-Saharan trade in gold etc but today, they have been reduced to cigarette and people smuggling, as well as tourism. The hardliners’ destruction of an internationally famous tourist site in Timbuctoo in an outburst of religious zealotry will not help them.
Tuareg ambitions have always been political/secular in the past but now they may be associated with Al Qaeda.
Who wins, who loses?
The Tuaregs lose heavily but the biggest sufferers in the short term are the Malian people. Besides the casualties and the refugees, one of the world’s poorest countries is now a great deal poorer. Algeria will also suffer if attacks on its energy infrastructure continue. If they became severe enough, you could see an economic collapse and another Arab country collapsing into chaos.
Even the Islamic hardliner groups lose in the short term, because they’re going to get kicked out of all their recent gains. On the other hand these groups thrive in political and economic chaos, so they may benefit in the medium term.
All together, the invasion of Mali by Islamic hardliners has been a disaster for the country and was probably motivated as much by personal gain as any sincere religious objective. This is a local war that has been hijacked by international groups (Al Qaeda influenced) with wholly negative consequences for all concerned.