Syria and Iran wouldn't like the West when it's angry
If they reject sensible peace offers, the U.S. has just one option: massive air strikes.
By Victor Davis Hanson
The conventional wisdom is that the United States is so tied down that it can't do much about the rocket attacks on Israel, the blatant sponsorship of terrorists by Iran and Syria, or the Iranian nuclear program.
Oil prices are already sky-high. Any unilateral American action might disrupt tight global supplies. That would derail the economies of our Western allies and only further enrich enemies with windfall profits.
Trying to win hearts and minds for the fragile democracy in Iraq also means we can't afford to offend Arab sensitivities elsewhere. And a lame-duck George Bush, low in the polls and facing uncertain congressional elections this fall, certainly doesn't want to involve the American taxpayer with more costly commitments abroad.
But despite that sound conventional wisdom, an exasperated West is running out of choices in the Middle East.
For years, the Arab world clamored for the Israel "problem" to be solved. Then peace and security would at last supposedly reshape the Middle East. The Western nations understood the "problem" as being Israeli retention of lands it had captured in Sinai, the West Bank, Gaza, Syria and Lebanon after defeating a series of Arab forces bent on destroying the Jewish state.
But after the Israeli departure from Sinai, Gaza and Lebanon, and billions of dollars in American aid to Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians, there is still not much progress toward peace. Past Israeli magnanimity was seen as weakness. Israel's diplomacy has earned it another round of kidnapping, ransom and rocket attacks.
Finally, the world is accepting that the Middle East problem was never about so-called occupied land - but only about the existence of Israel itself. Hezbollah and Hamas, and those in their midst who tolerate them (or vote for them), didn't so much want Israel out of Lebanon and Gaza as pushed into the Mediterranean altogether. And since there will be no second Holocaust, the Israelis may well soon transform a perennial terrorist war that they can't easily win into a conventional aerial one against a terrorist-sponsoring Syria that they can.
For its part, the United States has spent thousands of lives and billions in treasure trying to birth democracy in Iraq. We wished to end our old cynical support for Middle East dictators that earned us such scorn and instead give liberated Iraqis a choice other than either theocracy or autocracy.
In multilateral fashion, America has also welcomed the help of the European Union, the United Nations, China and Russia in convincing the Iranians of the folly of producing nuclear weapons. But like Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran does not wish to parley - just as the beheaders and kidnappers in Iraq don't, either.
The two most liberal societies in Europe - Denmark and the Netherlands - welcomed almost anyone to their shores from the Middle East. Their multicultural hospitality was supposed to have led to a utopian "diverse" nation of various races, nationalities and religions.
Instead, such liberality has earned both small nations pariah status in the Muslim world for the supposed indiscretions of a few freewheeling filmmakers and cartoonists.
Yet for all their threats, what the Islamists - from Hezbollah in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley to the Iranian government in Tehran to the jihadists in Iraq's Sunni Triangle - don't understand is that they are slowly pushing tired Westerners into a corner. If diplomacy, or aid, or support for democracy, or multiculturalism, or withdrawal from contested lands, does not satisfy radical Islamists, what would?
Perhaps nothing.
What then would be the new Western approach to terrorism? Hard and quick retaliation - but without our past concern for nation-building, or offering a democratic alternative to theocracy and autocracy, or even worrying about whether other Muslims are unfairly lumped in with Islamists who operate freely in their midst.
Any new policy of retaliation - in light both of Sept. 11 and the messy efforts to birth democracies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and the West Bank - would be something of an exasperated return to the old cruise-missile payback. Yet in the new world of Iranian nukes and Hezbollah missiles, the West would hit back with something far greater than a cruise missile.
If they are not careful, a Syria or an Iran really will earn a conventional war - not more futile diplomacy or limited responses to terrorism. And history shows that massive attacks from the air are something that the West does well.
So in the meantime, let us hope that democracy prevails in Iraq, that our massive aid is actually appreciated by the Middle East, that diplomacy ultimately works with Iran, that Syria quits supporting terrorists, and that Hamas and Hezbollah cease their rocket attacks against Israel - more for all their sakes than ours.
Victor Davis Hanson ([email protected]) is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
I agree with this article. People like to assume that Iran is somehow competitive militarily with the U.S. or the U.K, which is just lunacy. I don't know if its because they see Iran as "their" last hope for a "heroic" Muslim nation capable of thumbing its nose at the West, or simply ignorance. An air campaign by either the U.S. or the U.K would have Iran pleading for mercy in a week, or maybe two if the planes are really picky about targets.
I agree with this article. People like to assume that Iran is somehow competitive militarily with the U.S. or the U.K, which is just lunacy. I don't know if its because they see Iran as "their" last hope for a "heroic" Muslim nation capable of thumbing its nose at the West, or simply ignorance. An air campaign by either the U.S. or the U.K would have Iran pleading for mercy in a week, or maybe two if the planes are really picky about targets.
Afraid so boys and girls. The Iranian government knows this too. They are just playing diplomatic chicken. They "think" the US won't respond. That could end up being a very costly mistake.
Afraid so boys and girls. The Iranian government knows this too. They are just playing diplomatic chicken. They "think" the US won't respond. That could end up being a very costly mistake.
Bring it on tough guy...
Text without context is pretext If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him
It isn't about being "tough", it is about common sense. If I say that a elephant can beat a turtle in a fair fight, that isn't being tough, that is stating a stark reality.
You really want war don’t you? Still think it would be interesting to see how many would die.
By the way, my Mom can whip you Mom and other childish stuff.
It isn't about being "tough", it is about common sense. If I say that a elephant can beat a turtle in a fair fight, that isn't being tough, that is stating a stark reality.
yup such as the battle between the Romans and Khalid Ibn Alwaleed to secure the borders..... Although I personally don't think any Muslim today can compare to them... there are other facets to war ..... very few people demonstrated skill in spite of lack of resources or man power.... one thing for sure arrogance doesn't take people very far...
Text without context is pretext If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him
You really want war don’t you? Still think it would be interesting to see how many would die.
By the way, my Mom can whip you Mom and other childish stuff.
No... I really don't want a war... I have nieces and nephews and it amazes me how clueless they are to the world around them when they watch shrek sponge bob or play in the yard.... But I do believe people should stand up for their rights and for what is right and not be bullied by the new tough kid on the block...
Text without context is pretext If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him
By the way, my Mom can whip you Mom and other childish stuff.
Wilbur, you sure about that?
This whole war thing is a bit absurd. I think the US spends too much time going to war, its like, every decade, Americans see a "great war."
Let's begin at 1900.
1900 - slow year.
1910 - WW1.
1920 - slow year, great depression, isolation.
1930 - WW2 (not involved, just ate popcorn and observed)
1940 - WW2 (involved), cold war (key player)
1950 - Korean War
1960 - Vietnam War
1970 - Bunch of Israeli-Arab wars that US secretly took part in, plus more Vietnam war stuff.
1980 - War on Drugs
1990 - HOT DECADE - Gulf War, battle of Mogadishu, Kosovo!
2000 - another HOT DECADE - Afghanistan, Iraq, prospective Korea, Iran, and Syria.
You see, for the American people, I being one, this is typical, so lets not look surprised and "Make Our Day," lets just make this Decade and the Next, and the Next......life goes on...
Last edited by Dahir; 07-25-2006 at 12:23 AM.
"This world is a blank price tag, and whatever value you put on it, is what its worth to you. I have made this world priceless and worthless, so therefore I have placed my value in the afterlife."
leave people's mothers out of this including your own.... even if it were a joke?... some things should have reverence... but I guess you are entitled......
Anyhow I think I'll be less grouchy if I go have DINDIN
Text without context is pretext If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him
leave people's mothers out of this including your own.... even if it were a joke?... some things should have reverence... but I guess you are entitled......
Anyhow I think I'll be less grouchy if I go have DINDIN
If my Mom saw what I posted she would be rolling over in laughter.
She had a great sense of humor.
I'm not George Bush. I don't control the US military.
Unless of course you are challenging me personally. I warn you though, I can beat any girl! (Joke - for all you serious people out there! - Imagine Andy Kaufmann in his rediculous tights wrestling women in a wrestling ring)
I'm not George Bush. I don't control the US military.
Unless of course you are challenging me personally. I warn you though, I can beat any girl! (Joke - for all you serious people out there! - Imagine Andy Kaufmann in his rediculous tights wrestling women in a wrestling ring)
I'd can sedate you then skillet you.... but I'd really love to skillet bush without any sedation and have him come out of it only to skillet him again....and again.....
Text without context is pretext If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him
I may not agree with Iran 100% but when it comes to west against a muslim state you must know that my diffrences will be put aside until we slove the western problem at hand ,and then u will be in a Pathetic state.
When Abi Talib was asked to convince the Messenger of Allah he the holy Prophet SAW said : "O uncle, if they were to put the sun in my right hand and the moon in my left hand to stop me from preaching Islam, I would never stop. I will keep preaching until Allah makes Islam prevail or I die."
LOL! Stop! You are embarassing yourself. Never held a gun. LOL! Iran is pathetic.
We don't know if Iran is pathetic yet do you want to find out?....... I am not reading anything about Korea here and they have actually admitted to having nukes.... their leader WHO IS NOT A PYGMY has been threatening... aren't you listening? Man the whole world is very disenchanted with the U.S in one form or another something in the way bushy butters his roll seems to bug lots of people... he huffs and he puffs and honestly at some point he will get it...
Text without context is pretext If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him
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