North Korea Is Ready To Attack!

[sister herb]

I read today news article where US official was thinking that when USA and South Korea will end they common military maneuvers later at this month, this crisis will be over and leader of N.K. can say in propaganda speeches that "military power of brave people of N.K. scared the enemy forces retreat".

Let´s see.

 

[Futuwwa]

Yet despite what you say, they have launched attacks on many, many occasions in the past. Here's a selection:

• May & June 1996: North Korean vessels twice cross the Northern Limit Line and have a several-hour standoff with the South Korean navy.
• April 1997: Five North Korean soldiers cross the Demilitarized Zone in Cheolwon, Gangwon-do, and fire on South Korean positions.
• June 1997: Three North Korean vessels cross the Northern Limit Line and attack South Korean vessels two miles (3 km) south of the line. On land, fourteen North Korean soldiers cross 70 m south of the center of the DMZ, leading to a 23-minute exchange of fire.
• June 29, 2002: Renewed naval clashed near the Northern Limit Line lead to the deaths of four South Korean sailors and the sinking of a South Korean vessel. The number of North Koreans killed is unknown.
• March 26, 2010: A South Korean naval vessel was allegedly sunk by a North Korean torpedo near Baengnyeong Island in the Yellow Sea. A rescue operation recovered 58 survivors but 46 sailors were killed. On May 20, 2010, a South Korean led international investigation group concluded that the sinking of the warship was in fact the result of a North Korean torpedo attack.North Korea denied involvement.
• November 23, 2010: NK fired artillery at South Korea's Greater Yeonpyeong island in the Yellow Sea and South Korea returned fire. Two South Korean marines and two South Korean civilians were killed, six were seriously wounded, and ten were treated for minor injuries.

NK's view is that it's ok for them to kill a few SK citizens every now and then without retaliation, whenever the NK leader needs to make a new propaganda video.

Dude... do you know what the Northern Limit Line even is?

 

[Independent]

Dude... do you know what the Northern Limit Line even is?

No, but I just googled it to find out. I can see why it's been the trigger for so many incidents. It's one of those messy things left over from the a war that didn't have a proper end, and both sides interpret it differently.

Overall I believe that (from the UN point of view) policy is dictated mainly by SK, not the US or anyone else. The US will support SK where possible but will not initiate anything against their wishes.

SK itself is not interested in provoking war. It has far more to lose (it's economy) whereas NK is arguably the most militarised state in the world. The logic of history says that, if you spend that much on defence, sooner or later you're going to want to use it. This is why it tends to negotiate by arms rather than diplomacy.

In addition, SK citizens have family the other side of the border and really don't want to have to go back to full scale war unless they really have to.

Perhaps you disagree? Do you think that SK is the main provocateur in these incidents? Do you think they are really the aggressor?

 

[Futuwwa]

No, but I just googled it to find out. I can see why it's been the trigger for so many incidents. It's one of those messy things left over from the a war that didn't have a proper end, and both sides interpret it differently.

Good that you did, though maybe you should have done so before posting. You (and pretty much everyone in the West who comments on it) act like the 2010 sinking was an arbitrary, unprovoked attack, while in fact the ship in question was carrying out live fire exercises right in North Korea's face, within sight of its coast.

SK itself is not interested in provoking war. It has far more to lose (it's economy) whereas NK is arguably the most militarised state in the world. The logic of history says that, if you spend that much on defence, sooner or later you're going to want to use it. This is why it tends to negotiate by arms rather than diplomacy.

Logic of history? Is that a fancy way of saying "I don't have any idea of how such a thing could happen, but the situation is superficially similar on one specific, isolated point to historical cases where it indeed happened, and therefore it will happen now too."? ^o)

North Korea's massive military spending can adequately be explained by the premise that its leadership is rational and wants to remain in power and the system to remain intact. That military is its insurance policy against regime change. That does in no way imply that they would start a total war just for the hell of it.

Perhaps you disagree? Do you think that SK is the main provocateur in these incidents? Do you think they are really the aggressor?

I have no idea, I haven't studied each incident separately. To me this seems like the normal kind of attrition you get when you have a heavily armed border and ambiguity about where the demarcation line actually goes.

 

[Futuwwa]

Oh, and it seems like feeding the population has won out over continuing the posturing:

The North Korean authorities are continuing to give out mixed messages, trying to keep tensions high externally while at the same time bringing domestic reserve mobilization to an end and preparing for the farming season.

According to Daily NK sources, the relaxation of tensions really began in earnest with the Party Central Committee plenum at the end of last month. At the time of writing, all reserve forces have been sent back to their places of work and the annual drive to gather manure for biological fertilizer is well underway.

A Chongjin source told Daily NK on the 8th, “The reserves who had been mobilized for combat exercises over the past few months all returned their weapons to their local Ministry of People’s Safety (the police) office arms store on the 1st and went back to work. Having carried out public and enterprise rallies in accordance with decisions made at the Party Central Committee plenum last month, each province, county and city is now working on producing fertilizer.”

The source added, “Until last month there were Worker and Peasant Red Guards and other reserves on the streets, all in uniform with their backpacks and guns, but now there are only workers with shovels and hoes, mobilized to produce manure for the farms. Even those soldiers who were living underground in the mountains have returned to normal life in the barracks.”

That source is DailyNK, a South Korean news service dedicated to investigative journalism about North Korea, largely run by defectors. Hardly a source that would have any reason to have a pro North Korea bias. According to Le Wiki, the North Korean state news service hates it.

 

[IslamicRevival]

North Korea's aggressive rhetoric is hardly suprising after years of intimidation from the South and particularly US who want to keep China and Russia within striking distance.

US actions on Korean peninsula aimed at encircling China, Russia
http://presstv.com/detail/2013/04/10/297541/us-after-encircling-russia-china/

 

[Independent]

US actions on Korean peninsula aimed at encircling China, Russia

30 years ago maybe, but not any more. This is from Dr Cheng Xiaohe (deputy director at the Center for China's International Strategic Studies at Renmin University in Beijing):

"China is a formidable country with a large economy and a modern military. China is not afraid of being invaded or circled by any country."

And this from President Xi Jinping at the BOAO economic forum in the southern Chinese island of Hainan:

"No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains"

Russia has had enough too:

"There is no disagreement with the United States over North Korea." - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry in London on Wednesday.

 

[Independent]

Logic of history? Is that a fancy way of saying "I don't have any idea of how such a thing could happen, but the situation is superficially similar on one specific, isolated point to historical cases where it indeed happened, and therefore it will happen now too."?

No. If you look at countries with very high defence spending (as a proportion of GDP) it's a very good marker for their propensity to go to war in the near future. (eg Germany before both World Wars).

That does in no way imply that they would start a total war just for the hell of it

I don't think that's what they want either. But they are making the situation so dangerous. They can do their missile test if they want, no one can stop them. But by refusing to tell anyone when or where they're aiming at it's exceptionally dangerous.

They are objecting to SK/US carrying out a military training exercise south of the border yet NK do the same themselves all the time (and indeed they used an exercise as cover for the original surprise assault back in 1950).

 

[Futuwwa]

No. If you look at countries with very high defence spending (as a proportion of GDP) it's a very good marker for their propensity to go to war in the near future. (eg Germany before both World Wars).

Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Germany before WW1 had one of the lowest levels of military spending to GDP of the great powers of Europe, significantly less than its WW1 enemies. It managed to have Europe's most powerful army simply because its GDP was Europe's largest in absolute terms. Germany was trigger-happy about escalating the Balkan Crisis into a world war since its leadership believed war to be inevitable and thought war now was preferable to war later, that a window of opportunity was closing. They weren't magically hypnotized by their armaments to go into war or any such nonsense.

Germany before WW2 had high levels of military spending because Hitler was intent on going on a war of conquest to begin with, he didn't get his ideas of conquest because of military spending.

Your post is a textbook example of how to use history to draw the wrong conclusions.

I don't think that's what they want either. But they are making the situation so dangerous. They can do their missile test of they want, no one can stop them. But by refusing to tell anyone when or where they're aiming at it's exceptionally dangerous.

If North Korea doesn't want a war, it won't do anything that poses a significant risk of South Korea or the USA going to war (against everyone's interests) because of wrongly evaluating the situation. Therefore they won't do anything that could actually be misinterpreted, such as test-launch a missile in a trajectory above Japan or South Korea. Wonder why North Korea recently bragged about going to destroy the USA using agile, miniaturized nuclear devices? Well, the USA knows well enough that North Korea has nothing of the sort and knows it's just hot air, while Kim gets to look tough at home.

 

[Independent]

Therefore they won't do anything that could actually be misinterpreted, such as test-launch a missile in a trajectory above Japan or South Korea.

So many wars begin through a failure of diplomacy or a misunderstanding - hopefully that won't happen in this case.

 

[Woodrow]

We have gone past the day Kim was supposed launch an attack. He did make a show of moving missiles to the east coast and did make a show or raising them to firing position.

Perhaps his whole game was to use the Joint SK USA training exercises to his advantage. The exercises are coming to an end. Maybe he will convince his people the USA and SK did launch an attack on NK but he faced them with a show of force and they backed down and the US ran away. Once again Kim and the NK military backed down the USA, Japan and SK. With no help needed from any other nation.

 

[Iceee]

[h=1]Obama urges N Korea to end aggression as US upgrades nuclear threat[/h]
Pentagon concludes North Korea could build a nuclear missile but president maintains 'strategic patience' approach

Barack Obama has called on North Korea to end what he described as its "belligerent approach" as US intelligence officials concluded for the first time that the country has a nuclear weapon small enough to be carried on a missile.
The US president made his first public comments on the crisis as a congressional hearing was told of the Pentagon's latest intelligence assessment on North Korea. The Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report said it concluded "with moderate confidence that the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles". But it said the missiles would not be reliable.
The Pentagon later sought to row back from the DIA assessment read out in Congress, saying that North Korea's had not yet fully tested a nuclear weapon.
US military commanders have been preparing for North Korea to launch a missile after a new round of United Nations sanctions were imposed last month.
The US has threatened to shoot down any North Korean missiles but it might only do so if the missile appears to be targeted at a US territory or one of its allies such as South Korea or Japan. If the missile is headed out to sea the US might try to avoid further escalation by letting it take its course.
Pentagon spokesman George Little refused to say what the US response would be. "We are prepared to respond to any missile threat," he said.
Little later issued a statement saying: "In today's House armed services committee hearing on the department of defence budget, a member of the committee read an unclassified passage in a classified report on North Korea's nuclear capabilities.
"While I cannot speak to all the details of a report that is classified in its entirety, it would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully tested, developed or demonstrated the kinds of nuclear capabilities referenced in the passage. The United States continues to closely monitor the North Korean nuclear programme and calls upon North Korea to honour its international obligations."
South Korea's defence ministry also cast doubt on the finding that North Korea could make a nuclear warhead small enough to go on a missile. "Our military's assessment is that the North has not yet miniaturised," ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said in Seoul on Friday morning.
"North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests but there is doubt whether it is at the stage where they can reduce the weight and miniaturise to mount on a missile."
Obama, speaking to reporters after he met UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon at the White House, said: "We both agreed that now's the time for North Korea to end the kind of belligerent approach that they've been taking and to try to lower temperatures.
"Nobody wants to see a conflict on the Korean peninsula. But it's important for North Korea, like every other country in the world, to observe the basic rules and norms that are set forth, including a wide variety of UN resolutions."
He added that the US would take all necessary steps to protect its people.
The Obama administration remains of the view that North Korea's actions and rhetoric over the last month are bluster and that there is no serious threat yet.
The DIA assessment was revealed by Congressman Doug Lamborn during a congressional hearing. He said the part of the assessment dealing with North Korea had been declassified.
Lamborn, reading from the report, which was produced last month, said: "DIA assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles. However, the reliability will be low."
The revelation came after a Pentagon briefing at which the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Martin Dempsey, refused to say whether North Korea was capable of building a nuclear weapon that could fit on a missile, arguing that the information was classified.
Administration officials know there is much more public scepticism about such intelligence claims after assessments about Iraq's weapons capabilities proved so wrong.
The revelation at this juncture will be viewed with suspicion by some anti-war groups who will wonder if, as with Iraq, it is part of a process to demonise North Korea ahead of military action.
But there appear to be no senior figures inside the Obama administration pressing for military intervention in North Korea to bring about regime change. The policy at present remains "strategic patience", with officials content to settle for containment.
The US secretary of state, John Kerry, is heading to the region on Thursday for talks with South Korea, Japan and China.
Earlier, in Washington, Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, argued that while "strategic patience" was an answer for the present "artificial" crisis, in the long term the aim should be regime change and the reunification of North and South Korea.
He did not anticipate North Korea willingly trading away "big bang" weapons – the only significant achievement of which it could boast.
Fitzpatrick argued in favour of broadcasting direct to people in North Korea, targeting the finances of the ruling elite and highlighting its human rights record.
"The answer to the question: is regime change the answer? Yes," Fitzpatrick said. "But it is not obviously an immediate answer to the current situation. North Korea's actions and statement, however, reinforce the conclusion that there is only one happy ending to this long-running tragedy: unification of the Korea as a democratic, free-enterprise based republic."

Feels like the Cold War between Russia and U.S Post-WWII. Maybe same results? Nothing will happen?

 

[Futuwwa]

Perhaps his whole game was to use the Joint SK USA training exercises to his advantage. The exercises are coming to an end. Maybe he will convince his people the USA and SK did launch an attack on NK but he faced them with a show of force and they backed down and the US ran away. Once again Kim and the NK military backed down the USA, Japan and SK. With no help needed from any other nation.

Exactly, and that was his intention all along. And with the threat of war taking the spotlight, the nuclear test that started this whole manufactured crisis have almost been forgotten.

 

[Iceee]

The dictators have refined their control to a degree that makes resistance impossible, or dangerous in the extreme. They have a million strong armed force, who are fed well and lead a good life, and know that that privileged life will crash if the dictatorship is overthrown. The Generals and Kin Jong-Un thereby have a military they can depend on to mercilessly crush any resistance.

[h=1]China and US make North Korea nuclear pledge[/h]

The BBC's Damian Grammaticas in Beijing: "Threatened with nuclear war, America is now looking to China to help defuse this crisis"

Continue reading the main story


China and the US have vowed to work together to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear programme and to settle tensions through dialogue.
A Chinese statement issued during a visit by US Secretary of State John Kerry said the nuclear issue was the "shared responsibility of all parties".
Mr Kerry said the two sides must decide "very quickly" how to proceed.
North Korea has recently threatened nuclear attacks, and is feared to be preparing a missile launch.
A flurry of warlike statements from Pyongyang has prompted speculation that a launch could happen on 15 April, when the country marks the 101st birthday of the nation's founder and former leader, Kim Il-sung.
Continue reading the main story
After weeks of rising tensions, and North Korea's threats of nuclear war, the diplomatic efforts to tackle this crisis are gathering pace.
The pledge to work with the US is a clear signal of China's displeasure with North Korea. China is North Korea's only ally, and is not going to stop supporting the North, but wants it to calm things down.
The question is will North Korea listen? In recent weeks the North's regime has made clear it now views having nuclear weapons as vital to its survival.
It has said explicitly that it won't bargain them away.

• North Korea has reportedly moved at least two Musudan ballistic missiles to its east coast, but on Saturday, South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted officials in Seoul as saying that no new movement of the mobile launchers had been detected for two days.

US officials including Mr Kerry have been playing down a leaked Pentagon report which warned that Pyongyang could have developed the technology to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile.
Since the UN imposed fresh sanctions on North Korea in February, its leadership has promised to restart a mothballed nuclear reactor, has shut an emergency military hotline to South Korea, and has urged diplomatic staff to leave, saying it cannot guarantee their safety.
The North says it has also been angered by joint US-South Korean military exercises.
Though its rhetoric has been more bellicose than usual, analysts say it fits a long-standing pattern, and may be intended to boost the popularity of Kim Jong-un, who came to power last year.
In Beijing Mr Kerry held talks with President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. In comments to Mr Xi, he said the world was facing "a critical time with some very challenging issues".
Among them were Korean tensions but also "the challenge of Iran and nuclear weapons, Syria and the Middle East, and economies around the world that are in need of a boost", he said.
'Great specificity'He later issued a statement saying the US and China were able "to underscore our joint commitment to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula in a peaceful manner".
He said the two sides would have "further discussions to bear down very quickly with great specificity on exactly how we will accomplish this goal".
Continue reading the main story[h=2]Musudan missile[/h]

• The Musudan, also known as the Nodong-B or the Taepodong-X, is an intermediate-range ballistic missile. Its likely targets are Okinawa, Japan, and US bases in the Pacific
• Range estimates differ dramatically. Israeli intelligence suggests 2,500km, while the US Missile Defense Agency estimates 3,200km; other sources put the upper limit at 4,000km

The statement was issued after talks with Yang Jiechi, China's top diplomat.
Mr Yang said China was "firmly committed to upholding peace and stability and advancing the denuclearisation process".
"To properly address the Korea nuclear issue serves the common interests of all parties. It is also the shared responsibility of all parties," he said.
China is North Korea's only ally and major trading partner, but has grown increasingly frustrated with its growing belligerence.
Even so, the BBC's Damian Grammaticas reports from Beijing that persuading China to up the pressure on North Korea will not be easy.
China might be frustrated by Pyongyang's behaviour but it is still the North's lifeline, so Beijing is unlikely to cut vital supplies of food and fuel since it feels that may make the North even more desperate and unpredictable, our correspondent adds.
Following meetings in the South Korean capital, Seoul, on Friday, Mr Kerry said no country had a closer relationship with Pyongyang than China.
Noting that Beijing, like Washington, wanted denuclearisation on the peninsula, he added: "If that's your policy, you've got to put some teeth into it."
He warned North Korea against any missile launch, saying it would be a "provocation and unwanted act" which would further isolate North Korea and its people who, he said "are desperate for food, not missile launches".
But he also said the US had tried to tone down its own statements, and cancelled some military exercises.
"I think we have lowered our rhetoric significantly and we are attempting to find a way for reasonableness to prevail here," he said.

North Korean television has been showing various celebrations despite its increasingly bellicose rhetoric

Mr Kerry is on a four-day trip to Asia, and travels to Tokyo on Sunday.
Russia has also expressed growing concern over North Korea and said on Friday that it had issued "an urgent appeal" to Pyongyang "to refrain from actions which could lead to further escalation of tension".
Some estimates suggest that the missiles North Korea has moved to its east coast could travel 4,000km (2,500 miles), although it is not believed that the Musudan has been tested before.
That would put US bases on the Pacific island of Guam within range.