Ambro: ‘Statistics’ is different from ‘probability’, a ‘humanitarian’ is different from a “humanist”, and no “miracle” (in the religious sense) has been made available for scientific scrutiny.
Grace Seeker: It’s not a “theory” that probabilities lie in the range between zero and unity; it’s a definition found to be convenient. If you want to start your own “trend”, you can have your probabilities run between, say, zero and ten (you don’t even need to start at zero), but the rest of the people in the world would probably divide your values by their maximum possible value (which is the meaning of “normalization”), and if necessary even “re-zero” your values, yielding the familiar range of probabilities, ranging from zero to unity (or 0% to 100%).
Re. the possibility of certainty about anything: such is possible for closed systems (e.g., in the game of bridge, you can be certain that your ace of trump beats all other cards; you can even be certain that Superman is invulnerable to anything except kryptonite – cause it says so, right there in his “holy book”). But in reality, Popper’s principle is that the best we can do is find other principles (such as all the principles of science) that are falsifiable but not yet falsified. As for how certain one can be of Popper’s idea: it’s falsifiable, but not yet falsified; so, so far it stands quite firm – maybe a 99.99 % probability of being “true”. Similarly, for example, the probability that Maxwell’s equations of electrodynamics are “true” seems to be about 99.99999999999 % -- but if you can show that they’re false (and certainly they’re falsifiable), you can win yourself a Nobel Prize.
Woodrow: It does seem to be obvious that various statements (such as “God exists” or “all invisible flying elephants are pink”) must be either or true or false, but that’s not the point. The point is that, in reality, we must struggle to try to determine whether such statements are true or false, and although you apparently have been able to convince yourself that all invisible flying elephants are pink (or whatever), that’s your subjective judgment – which generally is of no value to the rest of us, especially those equally convinced by their own subjective judgments that all invisible flying elephants are purple.
Meanwhile, for knowledge (aka science) to advance, you need to provide evidence for you claim that all invisible flying elephants are pink, evidence that can be examined, tested, prodded, etc. by the rest of us. Of course, you could form a club of all people persecuted because of their persuasion that all flying elephants are pink – you could even initiate terrorist attacks to force your perspective to prevail – but don’t expect that the rest of us will be pleased with your perversions, especially those convinced that the revered elephants are purple.
It just so happens, that the other day I was outside observing the usual parade of pink elephants that pass by my house daily. Now, each of these was certainly visible. When along came a space between them. Now the elephant in front of the space had it's tail being held up in the air as if carried by perhaps another elephant behind it, and the elephant behind the space had its trunk stretched out as if perhaps holding something in front of it. But of course what was inbetween these pink elephants was entirely invisible, at least to me. So, I ran to catch up with the line of elephants, though they move along at a pretty good clip I don't mind telling you, and asked Henry, the last pink elephant bringing up the rear of the parade, if he could tell me about why there was a space in their parade today. He told me -- I don't know if you realize it or not, but all pink elephants are also quite fluent in at least two and sometimes three or four human languages -- he told me that I should ask Harvey himself. Well, I had no idea who Harvey was. I had met Henry, Harry, Henrietta, Hortence, Harold, and Horton all before, but I had never met Harvey. So, I called out for Harvey, and the entire line of elephants came to a stop. I heard a voice call out to me, "Up here." And I ran up the line to were Henrietta was, but could see no Harvey.
I turned to Henrietta, she was the one who had been following the empty space in the parade of all the pink elephants, and asked her if she knew Harvey. She did, and she warned me that if I wasn't careful I was about to meet him a little more cloesly than I might like. And as she said that I suddenly ran smack into something, though I couldn't see anything there in front of her.
Then I heard the voice again. "Hey, watch out!"
"Who said that?" I asked, still feeling something warm and slightly rough to the touch in front of me, though seeing absolutely nothing there.
"It's me, Harvey. You wanted to talk?"
"Uh- N-n-no," I stammered, still not sure what to make of a voice coming from the blank space before me. "I was just asking Henry about the blank space in the parade and he told me to ask someone named Harvey."
"Well, I'm Harvey. How can I help you?"
"Umm," I gulped. "Well, I guess I was just wondering why there was this blank space in the pink elephant parade today?"
"There's no space. I'm tired of taking up the rear day after day, so Henry said he would switch places with me."
"Oh," I replied. And then getting a little more accustomed to talking to an invisible elephant, I challenged him, "But I thought this was a pink elephant parade?"
Harvey sounded indignant. "And just what color do I look like to you? Blue?"
"No, quite honestly you don't look like any color, you look invisible."
"Well," Harvey retorted, "That's your problem. As you appear to well know this is a pink elephant parade and only pink elephants are allowed to participate in it. There is no law that says only visible pink elephants permitted."
"I see," I said, trying not to appear as dumbfounded as I felt at the moment. "Tell me," I asked, "are all invisible elephants pink?"
There was no response.
"Harvey, I'm sorry, I don't mean to be rude. But see, I've never meant an invisible elephant or anything before, that is unless you count that rabbit several years ago. Come to think of it, his name was Harvey, too. Are all invisible animals, named Harvey?" I querried.
Again there was no response.
Finally Henrietta spoke up.
"I'm sorry. Harvey's gone. He's been rather moody lately, and I guess he decided he didn't want to be in the parade today. So, he just flew off."
"Huh? What do you mean?"
"I mean, he dropped Harold's tail and flew back home. Or at least I think that's where he probably went, as you noticed he didn't say a world."
"I think I have to sit down. You mean that elephants can not only be invisible, but they can fly too?"
"Don't be silly," Harold chimed in. "Not all elephants can fly, only invisible elephants can fly."
"But, that would be incredible if only I could see a flying elephant," I said.
Henrietta laughed, "That would be rather ridiculous wouldn't it? How could you see us once we turned invisible?"
Henry came up from behind me, and grabbed me with his trunk put me on his back between his shoulders.
Speaking to Henrietta, Henry said, "Well, maybe he can't see invisible flying elephants, but we can give him the next best thing." And with that I suddenly found myself a good 15-20 feet in the air witih nothing visible beneath me.
I started to get scared, and quickly I was back on Henry's back on the ground.
"What was that?!" I exclaimed both terrified and excited all at the same time.
"Oh, I just thought that since we can't show you a flying elephant, maybe you would like to ride one?" answered Henry.
"You-you-you can fly?" I gasped.
"Sure," Henry said, "All pink elephants can fly, but we have to turn invisible first."
"That's incredible! How come I've never seen that act in the circus?"
"Those are just your common grey elephant," Harold interrupted. "They're nice enough, but rather simple beasts if you ask me."
Hortance trumpted in response to what Harold had said.
Harold turned to her, "Now Hortance, you now I didn't mean anything disrespectful by that." Then turning to me told me, "Her brother flew off to be with a grey elephant last year, and she hasn't heard from him since."
Well, about this time Harry rumbled back to the middle of the herd and announced, "Horton says he's heard another Who, so we had better be on our way. You all wasted enough time talking to this human I'm afraid we had better fly."
And with that, they all turned invisible right before my eyes and were gone.
So, I don't know if all invisible invisible flying elephants are pink, but if Henry is to be believed, it seems the probability is high. I heard it straight from the horse's (or in this case, invisible flying pink elephant's) mouth.