http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...nd-marketwatch
IMF Bombshell: Age of America Nears End
by Brett Arends
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
This column has been updated to include a reaction from the IMF.
The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.
For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the "Age of America" will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
And it's a lot closer than you may think.
According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.
Put that in your calendar.
It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world's hegemonic power.
According to the IMF forecast, which was quietly posted on the Fund's website just two weeks ago, whoever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world's largest economy.
Most people aren't prepared for this. They aren't even aware it's that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.
But they're miscounting. They're only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates.
That's a largely meaningless comparison in real terms. Exchange rates change quickly. And China's exchange rates are phony. China artificially undervalues its currency, the renminbi, through massive intervention in the markets.
The Comparison That Really Matters
In addition to comparing the two countries based on exchange rates, the IMF analysis also looked to the true, real-terms picture of the economies using "purchasing power parities." That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.
Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America's share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China's would reach 18%, and rising.
Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China's.
Naturally, all forecasts are fallible. Time and chance happen to them all. The actual date when China surpasses the U.S. might come even earlier than the IMF predicts, or somewhat later. If the great Chinese juggernaut blows a tire, as a growing number fear it might, it could even delay things by several years. But the outcome is scarcely in doubt.
This is more than a statistical story. It is the end of the Age of America. As a bond strategist in Europe told me two weeks ago, "We are witnessing the end of America's economic hegemony."
We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S. for so long that there is no longer anyone alive who remembers anything else. America overtook Great Britain as the world's leading economic power in the 1890s and never looked back.
And both those countries live under very similar rules of constitutional government, respect for civil liberties and the rights of property. China has none of those. The Age of China will feel very different.
Victor Cha, senior adviser on Asian affairs at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me China's neighbors in Asia are already waking up to the dangers. "The region is overwhelmingly looking to the U.S. in a way that it hasn't done in the past," he said. "They see the U.S. as a counterweight to China. They also see American hegemony over the last half-century as fairly benign. In China they see the rise of an economic power that is not benevolent, that can be predatory. They don't see it as a benign hegemony."
The rise of China, and the relative decline of America, is the biggest story of our time. You can see its implications everywhere, from shuttered factories in the Midwest to soaring costs of oil and other commodities. Last fall, when I attended a conference in London about agricultural investment, I was struck by the number of people there who told stories about Chinese interests snapping up farmland and foodstuff supplies — from South America to China and elsewhere.
This is the result of decades during which China has successfully pursued economic policies aimed at national expansion and power, while the U.S. has embraced either free trade or, for want of a better term, economic appeasement.
"There are two systems in collision," said Ralph Gomory, research professor at NYU's Stern business school. "They have a state-guided form of capitalism, and we have a much freer former of capitalism." What we have seen, he said, is "a massive shift in capability from the U.S. to China. What we have done is traded jobs for profit. The jobs have moved to China. The capability erodes in the U.S. and grows in China. That's very destructive. That is a big reason why the U.S. is becoming more and more polarized between a small, very rich class and an eroding middle class. The people who get the profits are very different from the people who lost the wages."
The next chapter of the story is just beginning.
U.S. Spending Spree Won't Work
What the rise of China means for defense, and international affairs, has barely been touched on. The U.S. is now spending gigantic sums — from a beleaguered economy — to try to maintain its place in the sun.
It's a lesson we could learn more cheaply from the sad story of the British, Spanish and other empires. It doesn't work. You can't stay on top if your economy doesn't.
Equally to the point, here is what this means economically, and for investors.
Some years ago I was having lunch with the smartest investor I know, London-based hedge-fund manager Crispin Odey. He made the argument that markets are reasonably efficient, most of the time, at setting prices. Where they are most likely to fail, though, is in correctly anticipating and pricing big, revolutionary, "paradigm" shifts — whether a rise of disruptive technologies or revolutionary changes in geopolitics. We are living through one now.
The U.S. Treasury market continues to operate on the assumption that it will always remain the global benchmark of money. Business schools still teach students, for example, that the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond is the "risk-free rate" on money. And so it has been for more than a century. But that's all based on the Age of America.
No wonder so many have been buying gold. If the U.S. dollar ceases to be the world's sole reserve currency, what will be? The euro would be fine if it acts like the old deutschemark. If it's just the Greek drachma in drag ... not so much.
The last time the world's dominant hegemon lost its ability to run things singlehandedly was early in the past century. That's when the U.S. and Germany surpassed Great Britain. It didn't turn out well.
Updated With IMF Reaction
The International Monetary Fund has responded to my article.
In a statement sent to MarketWatch, the IMF confirmed the report, but challenged my interpretation of the data. Comparing the U.S. and Chinese economies using "purchase-power-parity," it argued, "is not the most appropriate measure… because PPP price levels are influenced by nontraded services, which are more relevant domestically than globally."
The IMF added that it prefers to compare economies using market exchange rates, and that under this comparison the U.S. "is currently 130% bigger than China, and will still be 70% larger by 2016."
My take?
The IMF is entitled to make its case. But its argument raises more questions than it answers.
First, no one measure is perfect. Everybody knows that.
But that's also true of the GDP figures themselves. Hurricane Katrina, for example, added to the U.S. GDP, because it stimulated a lot of economic activity — like providing emergency relief, and rebuilding homes. Is there anyone who seriously thinks Katrina was a net positive for the United States? All statistics need caveats.
Second, comparing economies using simple exchange rates, as the IMF suggests, raises huge problems.
Currency markets fluctuate. They represent international money flows, not real output.
The U.S. dollar has fallen nearly 10% against the euro so far this year. Does anyone suggest that the real size of the U.S. economy has shrunk by 10% in comparison with Europe over that period? The idea is absurd.
China actively suppresses the renminbi on the currency markets through massive dollar purchases. As a result the renminbi is deeply undervalued on the foreign-exchange markets. Just comparing the economies on their exchange rates misses that altogether.
Purchasing power parity is not a perfect measure. None exists. But it measures the output of economies in terms of real goods and services, not just paper money. That's why it's widely used to compare economies. The IMF publishes PPP data. So does the OECD. Many economists rely on them.
Brett Arends is a senior columnist for MarketWatch and a personal-finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal.
I think it has already happened, only we have not yet realized it. Something like1/3 of all American Corporations are now either Chinese owned or controlled. At the moment that seems to be counted as US wealth but in Practice it is part of China's wealth, just located in the USA.
It seems the inevitable will happen anyway and sooner that many predicted, even if the US has been trying to stall and stimulate its economy through unorthodox methods such as waging foreign wars (wars always stimulate production, and managed war, especially if it does not actually impact security, boost the economy) such as Iraq and Afghanistan.
One thing we know from history: empires rise and fall.
The USA is very young in terms of being a Nation. The Declaration of Independence was signed in 1776 in 1860-1865 it was divided into 2 Nations the Confederacy and the Federation. Reconstruction took nearly 100 years. The USA as it now stands did not really exist until the 1960s.format_quote Originally Posted by naidamar
In many ways the USA does not meet the criteria of any empire of nation of the past, it is essentially 50 different Nations United under the umbrella of a central government, which does not always represent the views or desires of all the States and never all of the people.
At the moment and if things do not change China will soon be the Ruler of this dunya. In about the 1940s the Chinese Philosopher/writer Lin YuTang wrote something to the effect that China can not be be conquered as the Chinese have learned to conquer through submission. Any and all conquerors are absorbed by China and become Chinese.
One thing can be said about China they are quite open and honest about the desire to conquer the world and end all religion. It is also evident their immediate goal is to gain access and acceptability in the Mid east. Slowly China has been buying up all the mineral rights and when America finally leaves, the oil wealth will belong to China. they have also made headway into Pakistan and do seem to be gaining grounds in Afghanistan. China is smart enough to not use weapons that will destroy what they desire to gain.
This is from an old report. Although some of the report is probably erroneous, the parts about China needing to gain a foot hold in the Mideast seems to be true and coming to pass.
SOURCEWhere will China get its oil?
China’s ability to provide for its own needs is limited by the fact that its proven oil reserves are small in relation to its consumption. At current production rates they are likely to last for less than two decades. Though during the 1970s and 1980s China was a net oil exporter, it became a net oil importer in 1993 and is growingly dependent on foreign oil. China currently imports 32% of its oil and is expected to double its need for imported oil between now and 2010. A report by the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2030, Chinese oil imports will equal imports by the U.S. today.
China's expectation of growing future dependence on oil imports has brought it to acquire interests in exploration and production in places like Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela, Sudan, West Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Canada. But despite its efforts to diversify its sources, China has become increasingly dependent on Middle East oil. Today, 58% of China's oil imports come from the region. By 2015, the share of Middle East oil will stand on 70%. Though historically China has had no long-standing strategic interests in the Middle East, its relationship with the region from where most of its oil comes is becoming increasingly important.
Implications for U.S.-China relations
U.S.-China relations are influenced by a wide array of issues from Taiwan to trade relations and human rights. But undoubtedly access to Middle East oil will become a key issue in the relations between the two powers. Clearly, in the short term, China recognizes that its energy security is increasingly dependent on cooperation with the U.S., rather than competition with it. China would like to maintain good relations with the U.S. and enjoy the economic benefits derived from such cooperation. But this inclination is balanced by the feeling among many Chinese leaders that the U.S. seeks to dominate the Persian Gulf in order to exercise control over its energy resources and that it tries to contain China's aspirations in the region. The U.S. is therefore considered a major threat to China's long-term energy security.
Although China is banking on oil development projects outside the Middle East, Beijing most likely will insist on nurturing its relations with the main oil-producing states in that region as an insurance policy. But its attempts to gain a foothold in the Middle East and build up a long-term strategic links with countries hostile to the U.S. could also bear heavily on U.S.-China relations. Especially troubling are China's arms sales to the region, its support of state sponsors of terrorism and its proliferation of dual use technology.
A report by the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, a group created by Congress, warned that China's increasing need for imported energy has given it an incentive to become closer to countries supporting terrorism like Iran, Iraq and Sudan:
China will very soon conquer the US with economics, putting them within reach of gaining the entire Mideast plus Pakistan.
Some oil deals that will give China both energy and oil wealth:
SOURCE
China, Iran sign biggest oil & gas deal
(CRI)
Updated: 2004-10-31 08:51
China's oil giant Sinopec Group has signed a US$70 billion oil and natural gas agreement with Iran, which is China's biggest energy deal with the No. 2 OPEC producer.
Under a memorandum of understanding signed Thursday, Sinopec Group will buy 250 million tons of liquefied natural gas over 30 years from Iran and develop the giant Yadavaran field.
Iran is also committed to export 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil to China for 25 years at market prices after commissioning of the field.
SOURCEwashingtonpost.com > World > Middle East > Iraq
Iraq and China Sign $3 Billion Oil Contract
Deal Is First of Its Kind Since Invasion
By Amit R. Paley
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, August 29, 2008
BAGHDAD, Aug. 28 -- Iraq and China signed a $3 billion deal this week to develop a large Iraqi oil field, the first major commercial oil contract here with a foreign company since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.
The 20-year agreement calls for the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. to begin producing 25,000 barrels of oil a day and gradually increase the output to 125,000 a day, said Asim Jihad, a spokesman for the Iraqi Oil Ministry.
SOURCEChina’s deal for Pakistan oil assets
by Matt Miller
This week’s $775 million announced sale of BP plc’s (NYSE:BP) Pakistan assets focused on the seller and its $20 billion cleanup bill halfway around the world.
Perhaps more attention should be paid to the buyer, a Hong Kong-listed company called United Energy Group Ltd. While not a state-owned Chinese enterprise, UEG and its major shareholder, Zhang Hongwei, have strong ties to the Beijing power base.
There are many ways to interpret UEG’s acquisition of these oil and gas concessions and production facilities. They all have global implications.
Afghanistan is the route from China to their OIL !
Posted on 2009 October 23 by probaway
China is building automobiles faster than any country in the world, almost as many as Japan and the United States put together. Their total number of cars on the road is still small compared to the United States’ but that will change very quickly because of the massive number of cars being produced. The obvious question is where is all of the gasoline, (oil) going to come from to power those cars. Obviously it is got to come from where the oil is and that is the Middle East. Since the United States is militarily protecting Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait the obvious answer is Iran. However, for China there is a really big problem of getting that oil from Iran to China. There are only two routes. (1) By sea, through the Straits of Hormuz controlled by the US, and through the Straits of Malacca at Singapore controlled at both ends by the US and through the area between the Philipines and Taiwan controlled by the US. (2) The other route is over land through a pipe line which would probably be the most economical method for them to move the oil. The closest point of China is only one country away from Iran and the distance is only 800 miles comparable to the Alaska pipeline. The distances and technical difficulties are almost insurmountable but they do have another problem. That single intervening country is Afghanistan and it is presently held militarily by, you guessed it, The United States. China has been very friendly with Iran and has built a Chery (a legally contested US Chevy knockoff ) automobile manufacturing plant there to sweeten their relationship. But, it is rather rude toward the US to do that.
SOURCE
I guess it is time we all sign up for Chinese language classes.
The 5 most spoken languages on Earth and the number of native speakers using it as their primary language
Mandarin Sino-Tibetan,Chinese 845 million (2000)
Spanish (Castilian) Indo-European,Romance 329 million
English Indo-European,Germanic 328 million (2000–2006)
Hindi-Urdu
(Hindustani) Indo-European,Indic 405 million (1999)
Arabic Afro-Asiatic,Semitic 232 million
SOURCE
When the oil workers were evacuated from Libya, I was struck to notice that so many of them were chinese.
Also, per February 2011, China holds more than USD 1 trillion worth of T-Bills (US government treasury bills), which is increasing constantly as China currently has more than USD 2 trillion in sovereign funds, and annual trade and accounts surpluses of USD 1 trillion.
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt
The US economy is practically propped up by other countries, and its citizens indirectly get loaned to fund their lifestyles.
format_quote Originally Posted by naidamar
Through loans and trade deficits, our government has effectively sold America to China.
My error I had not noticed I had hit edit on Bro Naidamar's post instead of quote. Corrected now/I apologize for putting words in his mout.
The Chinese are also in Africa because of the natural resources there.....they are also sending a lot of Chinese labor there to build infrastructure......so, even when they invest in a country---the wages end up in Chinese hands---which goes back to China.
China and Japan also own U.S. debt----with the massive restructuring required in Japan because of Fukushima---its anyones guess how things will turn out on this front....
However, there is a problem that will eventually burst open----the new changes in the middle east will have some effect on China---Chinese workers going home will bring new ideas that are going to inevitably ripen---because there is massive disparity in China between areas of growth and areas of stagnation---basically the urban and rural.
The more labor the Chinese send out---the more it sets itself up for change......
there is also the possibility that they will bring cultural and economic change to the nations the Chinese labor forces seek employment in. We are not speaking of small numbers.format_quote Originally Posted by siam
SOURCEPut simply, Chinese construction firms bring Chinese workers with them. According to data from the Chinese Consulate, in the United Arab Emirates alone, there are almost 200,000 Chinese residents and over 3,000 firms.
Likewise, around 250,000 Chinese working in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and other countries. Chinese workers comes cheap with fewer political risks. According to Christopher Davidson, Professor of Middle East politics at the United Kingdom’s Durham University, Chinese workers bring political advantage to Gulf countries as they do not speak Arabic and the majority is not Muslim.
“They do not seek migrant rights like South Asian workers are fighting for,” he said. South Asians including 1.2 million Nepalis have been struggling for migrant workers rights in Gulf countries for a decade now.
He said that a Chinese construction company offers the full package, including management and labor. It’s a readymade solution, compared to construction firms from other countries, which will supply the management but source the labor from Bangladesh and Nepal.
WHAT I PUT IN BOLD IS A VERY STRONG INCENTIVE TO USE CHINESE LABOR WHEN POSSIBLE. IT ALSO DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY BOOSTS CHINA'S
ECONOMY.
China has a very powerful weapon that can be used for quiet and peaceful occupation of any nation. Plentiful labor at low wages for manual jobs. A quiet and peaceful occupation. A parallel thought, China has a larger number of Chinese in Saudi than the US has Americans in Afghanistan. Yet they are unnoticed a quiet and peaceful invasion, but still an invasion and some culture changes will occur over the presence of this number of non-Muslims coming to Islamic nations. China is much smarter than the USA when it comes to occupying a nation, they understand quiet, peaceful ways work better and go unnoticed. This may not be a hidden secret plan of invasion, but this influx from another culture and religious beliefs will bring about change in the economy and with influence upon the populace. Only time will tell if it is beneficial or if it will bring harm.
but np matter what this exportation of labor is boosting China's economy and indirectly helping reduce the US economy.
This discussion i feel is biased towards China. Same thing are being said about muslims working in Europe because they are increasing in population. Chinese people on average live on very low income compared to US. Neither China is spending 1 trillion US$ on bases outside its own country. So in both areas they have less costs. But Chinese (invasion) if you may call invasion is not really an invasion. China has big population similar to India, and people just going out in different places to have a better life similarly. Chinese labor is cheap so people hire them, same like Indians. Although China will become a problem when it becomes a superpower, like any other nation. When a nation becomes superpower, it can start to flex its muscles on other nations, this has always been the case. Although China is a worry because it is not a democratic country, but on the other hand it may not be democratic but it has not shown to be expansionist like USSR. China normally does not interfere as of now how other countries govern themselves. But it doesn't take to change trends. What if local communist parties in other countries became more vocal, so would China support them and indirectly change its policy? It might not invade but like US or other countries it will try to promote communism in other countries. So far that has not been the case, because China is more focused on economic growth, but sooner or latter it will come to its peak and then China might look outside.
I dont get that at all...However I have a question. After the US Dollar ceases to be the anchor currency will Yuan be the anchor currency of the world?
I'm not sure, but Euro seems to be a better candidate unless IMF comes up with new basket currency. There is move towards gold too so gold might become a currency too but that is highly unlikely since majority of govts of the big economies will prefer fiat against gold.format_quote Originally Posted by 'Abd Al-Maajid
Here is a good blog post on this issue: http://www.forexblog.org/2008/03/eur...ce-dollar.html
Do you think by the time China reaches the point where it is an economic super power on par with Europe or America that it will still be 'communist'? The chinese have freed up their markets because they know better and I think that attitude will rub off on the government at some point; there really is no point in the Chinese spreading their pseudo communism and the chinese know this.format_quote Originally Posted by FS123
A free market is not compatible with communism. the Chinese are now using the free market to build it's economy. I doubt they can turn back so most likely Chinese communism will implode into itself.format_quote Originally Posted by Lynx
Only time will tell or it might make its own form of government which it already has - sort of.format_quote Originally Posted by Lynx
The US is realy ran by the corps - the entire lobbying system can realy only work with people in power - even the president has to listen to what the big corps have to say - donations and Campaigning requires large sums of money which the coprs have.
China has one big problem can it keep feeding its growing huge population and how long can it sustain feeding - what about a famine? China has to keep growing econmically just to feed its own population.
Last edited by Zafran; 04-28-2011 at 11:50 PM.
A famine is a problem anywhere, but I don't see it as particularly likely in China in coming years, barring a massive natural disaster. Unlike India, the Chinese population is actually predicted to start dropping in the next twenty years or so (and be overtaken by India as the 'most populous nation') as the effects of the 'one child' policy outweigh other factors such as longer lifespans. That means an aging population, and hence fewer agricultural workers, but advances in agricultural technology should balance that out together with increased capacity to import food if necessary as export income grows.format_quote Originally Posted by Zafran
As to Chinese government, I see it eventually ending up as Corporation dominated as the US, if not more so. It's just a matter of time. China is no longer 'communist' in anything but name - you could well argue it never really was in any sense Marx would recognise but now even the idealism of Mao (distorted as it was) is no longer there. They certainly have no interest in promoting 'communism' anywhere else. The party structure just perpetuates itself for the sake of itself like a rather less unpleasant and nepotistic version of that in North Korea; how long that will remain or what/who will replace it is anybody's guess. Most likely is that the corporate bosses and Party bosses will just become the same people.
The Euro is certainly not a viable candidate to replace the US dollar any time soon!format_quote Originally Posted by FS123
I don't think the Chinese are ready for democracy---they maybe ready for more freedoms---and changes in this area are inevitable as the middle class grows---but in order to have a democracy--one needs a certain level of education of the masses----I hope I don't sound elitist or a snob---but for a country to change into a democracy is a somehwhat bloody, chaotic process---look at any young democracy in Asia....I'd say, "Perestroika" might be a better model....for now......
we're going to use electronic money
^ Yes, I agree with him. We'll be using electronic money and point system.
format_quote Originally Posted by siam
I hope They are not, Because Jews can govern them more effectively If they become ready. :.))
I think recent news has been designed to become a new psychological growth factor for American Economy.
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