Sharp criticism at the own government: Israels military offensive in Lebanon was planned for a long time, believes Israeli historian Segev. The government only waited for a provocation. In an interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE Segev describes, why there can't be peace at the moment.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Segev, would there have been a chance to avoid the crisis in the north of Israel? Tom Segev: Yes. The abduction of the two soldiers is not a justification to kick off a crisis and also it won't contribute to a release the two soldiers. It rather seems, as if the military action was prepared and one waited only for an opportunity, such as the abduction of soldiers. Israel has ensnared itself, as I believe, into a situation which is many more extensive and more dangerous, as it would serve the interest of Israel. SPIEGEL ONLINE: In order to increase the deterrence potential Prime Minister Ehud Olmert possibly wants to show who the strong person is. Will this proof work? Segev: Olmert is a weak politician and also the government is weak. Only a strong government would have been able to make clear to the Israelis that the abduction of two soldiers is not worth a war. But as mentioned: Olmert is weak and in addition an unpopular politician. Now he tries to become a paternal and popular leader, presents himselve as a Prime Minister who ushers the people into an unavoidable war. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Will the crisis strengthen him domestically? Segev: Perhaps. It depends on the result of the crisis. It will be favorably for him if Israel won't have any or only few losses to moan about. SPIEGEL ONLINE: At present there is hardly any criticism heard in Israel about the government. 80 per cent are supporting the action in Lebanon. What is the origin? Segev: There is a predominating atmosphere of revenge, it brings out a sort of animosity in relation to the population of Beirut. The Hisbollah surprised us all. Haifa is not a place that should be fired at - we rather expect this from the localities at the border to Lebanon. But Haifa is located in the middle in the country. Thus there are good reasons to be mad at Hisbollah and its boss Hassan Nasrallah. This is a real outrage. We haven't made this experience since Saddam Hussein attacked Israel. But criticism at the government might still arise. SPIEGEL ONLINE: When? Segev: If we have to experience many losses. Israel is a spoilt society. We don't tolerate terror, (which is) completely contrary to the tales of the government when it speaks about "steadfastness". We are steadfast only as long as we don't have to accept losses. In principle Israel is a fragile society. The image that that we are a strong society is a myth which is used by the government. Nevertheless, they do see how the people leave their houses in the north. But that is normal: If someone shoots, people leave their houses. SPIEGEL ONLINE: And pose themselves behind the government? Segev: There is as a feeling such as "finally we are having a real war, we are collecting toys for the children, those who are in the bunker and are sending volunteers to the poor". We are solidary, even forget all the quarrels in our domestic policy. Olmert makes the attempt to lump Hisbollah and Hamas together. But the problem does not lie in Teheran. We must rather get the problem with the Palestinians under control. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is an invasion with ground troops imminent? Segev: Hardly. Because Israel couldn't get rid of the trauma from the last invasion in Lebanon yet. Therefore it now means from the first day: In no way we will march into Lebanon. We have made this error before and then it took 18 years until we were able to get out again. An invasion with ground troops would not be supported by the population. SPIEGEL ONLINE:According to Olmert, the Hisbollah should be displaced from the border of Israel and replaced by Lebanese troops. Is that a realistic goal? Segev: I do not know. I am not sufficiently informed about Lebanon. But I believe that the war distracts from our real problem. SPIEGEL ONLINE: And that would be? Segev: Our relations with the Palestinians. We are now saying that the danger comes from Iran because Teheran supports the Hisbollah. But our problem lies in Gaza and in Nablus, not in Beirut. Even if the Americans would conquer Iran, our main problem would still exist: The relations with the Palestinians. SPIEGEL ONLINE:How do you rate Olmert in his first practical test as a Prime Minister? Segev: According to his speech on Monday it seems as if he is doing his work well. Indeed, I almost hear any clichee that his precedessors Menachim Begin and Shimon Peres - both outstanding speakers - used but for the first time Olmert was able to create a warm relationship with the population. By temper Olmert is a cynical, cold, professional politician, who has never been regarded as the "father of the country". That's what he wanted to change with his speech on Monday. Therefore he addressed parents of the captives personally, called the names of victims - this was received well. The people did not hear the answer to the question where it will end but they heard a strong language, That surely impressed many. Olmert wanted to imply the feeling that they can rely on him. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Olmert promises peace or at least peace befor terror. Does the war against the Hisbollah bring Israel a step neare to that goal?
Segev: No. War in the Near East never brought peace . There cannot be peace at the moment. The management of the crisis is the center of attention. And in this respect Olmert failed clearly. He involved us again into another war. To me, as a historian this situation should.actually never come into existance again. The interview was done by Pierre Heumann, Middle East correspondent of the "Weltwoche".
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