Al_Ghazali
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I couldn't care less what you or the mods think. Allah knows what is in my heart, and that is sufficient. You guys don't own Islam, so stop thinking that you do.
Oh Syria the victory is coming
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I couldn't care less what you or the mods think. Allah knows what is in my heart, and that is sufficient. You guys don't own Islam, so stop thinking that you do.
So this is the new 'hasbara' line, advertise your ignorance as if its a virtue? too easy. You dont even understand the 'basics'.
You should seek help, your behaviour shows you have deep-seated 'issues', better resolve them sooner rather than later.
As an aside whats happened to the quality of trolling? It was bad in the past at least they pretended to make an effort, but it's beyond dire now.
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Al_Ghazali
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Derp, hasbara, derp.
As for "deep-seated issues," I believe you're projecting your own insecure state.
Salaam
A reasonable assessment.
Anon3d
Do you support efforts such as the rebels in Syria or the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan when Soviets invaded or insurgents during Iraq war?
Vinnie Bèyda
@ortegaksv (twitter)
Two very different conflicts.
- afghanistan we saw the mujahideen were united there was no in fighting the goal was clear and the unity and by the will of allah swt they crushed communism alhamdulliah. ( side note after they won they did start infighting for power keyword being AFTRR)
- syria we saw the revolution and armed groups splinter. So much so it hindered the progress militarily and eventually as we can see now its backfired massively. Isis rose up jabhat al nusra became traitors and sold out, america armed the SDf (ypg) who have their own personal goals. Turkey armed their rebels for their strategic goals of removing the sdf from their borders to xreate a buffer zone. So whats left? Idlib. Surrounded and besiged. Allahul mustaan.
All we can say is eventhouhh they made absolutely masssssive military blunders and even on the grounds of religion, we make dua for ahlul sunnah wherever they may be for peace freedom and victory.
BarakaAllahu feek.
https://curiouscat.me/ortegaksv/post/904256293?t=1560726670
A reasonable assessment.
Anon3d
Do you support efforts such as the rebels in Syria or the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan when Soviets invaded or insurgents during Iraq war?
Vinnie Bèyda
@ortegaksv (twitter)
Two very different conflicts.
- afghanistan we saw the mujahideen were united there was no in fighting the goal was clear and the unity and by the will of allah swt they crushed communism alhamdulliah. ( side note after they won they did start infighting for power keyword being AFTRR)
- syria we saw the revolution and armed groups splinter. So much so it hindered the progress militarily and eventually as we can see now its backfired massively. Isis rose up jabhat al nusra became traitors and sold out, america armed the SDf (ypg) who have their own personal goals. Turkey armed their rebels for their strategic goals of removing the sdf from their borders to xreate a buffer zone. So whats left? Idlib. Surrounded and besiged. Allahul mustaan.
All we can say is eventhouhh they made absolutely masssssive military blunders and even on the grounds of religion, we make dua for ahlul sunnah wherever they may be for peace freedom and victory.
BarakaAllahu feek.
https://curiouscat.me/ortegaksv/post/904256293?t=1560726670
Salaam
Like to share. A wide ranging discussion.
Blurb
Bilal Abdul Kareem will be answering your questions and taking your comments LIVE from Syria, so please join in.
The battle of Idlib continues, there is a lot of fog of war and its hard to make sense of who is gaining territory and who is not. Heres two different perspectives.
Blurb
Regime media outlets have been trying to convince the masses that they control the strategic area of Tal Milh. However OGN interviews rebels from the very location in question.
Blurb
On June 18, the joint forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Turkish-backed militant groups launched an assault on several positions of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in northern Hama. The so-called “moderate opposition” reportedly used at least two suicide vehicle borne improvised explosive devices. One exploded near SAA positions in Jalamah. Another one was eliminated in the nearby area. At the same time, clashes were reported near Sheikh Hadid, Qiratah and Jub Suleiman. By June 19, the militant attack had been fully repelled by the SAA.
Despite this, pro-militant media outlets claimed that all devices had worked as intended and “Assad regime forces” had suffered dozens of casualties. According to pro-government sources, the militants lost up to 30 killed or injured fighters, and 6 pieces of military equipment, including a battle tank. The militant advance also triggered a new round of Syrian airstrikes on their infrastructure in southern Idlib and northern Hama.
Good point
Turkey getting directly involved.
Like to share. A wide ranging discussion.
Blurb
Bilal Abdul Kareem will be answering your questions and taking your comments LIVE from Syria, so please join in.
The battle of Idlib continues, there is a lot of fog of war and its hard to make sense of who is gaining territory and who is not. Heres two different perspectives.
Blurb
Regime media outlets have been trying to convince the masses that they control the strategic area of Tal Milh. However OGN interviews rebels from the very location in question.
Blurb
On June 18, the joint forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Turkish-backed militant groups launched an assault on several positions of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in northern Hama. The so-called “moderate opposition” reportedly used at least two suicide vehicle borne improvised explosive devices. One exploded near SAA positions in Jalamah. Another one was eliminated in the nearby area. At the same time, clashes were reported near Sheikh Hadid, Qiratah and Jub Suleiman. By June 19, the militant attack had been fully repelled by the SAA.
Despite this, pro-militant media outlets claimed that all devices had worked as intended and “Assad regime forces” had suffered dozens of casualties. According to pro-government sources, the militants lost up to 30 killed or injured fighters, and 6 pieces of military equipment, including a battle tank. The militant advance also triggered a new round of Syrian airstrikes on their infrastructure in southern Idlib and northern Hama.
Good point
Turkey getting directly involved.
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SintoDinto
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@Junon @Abz2000 please stop inciting hate and sectarianism on this forum. im asking you nicely.
- - - Updated - - -
- - - Updated - - -
brother, was that really necessary? the prophet saws said not to jump to conclusions about a man's heart, how can you sit there and judge someone from a few texts ina certain context on the other side of the world and judge him to be a kaafir, let a lone a hasbara troll? and don't you have a job with the level of knowledge you have? youre on here all day. im just a spoiled student.
Last edited by a moderator:
Abz2000
Abz Iz Back!!!
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Who r u judging?
Salaam
Another update.
Blurb
Bilal Abdul Kareem will be answering your questions and taking your comments LIVE from Syria.
Blurb
Bilal Abdul Kareem interviews Dr. Abdullah Muhaysini, Shaykh Abdul Razaaq, and Shaykh Muslih regarding their new trench digging campaign. 'It's a chance for everyone to participate in jihad'
Blurb
Syrian Rebels forces liberated the very strategic town of Hamamiyaat last night from Assad forces. OGN Maps explains it's importance.
Another update.
Blurb
Bilal Abdul Kareem will be answering your questions and taking your comments LIVE from Syria.
Blurb
Bilal Abdul Kareem interviews Dr. Abdullah Muhaysini, Shaykh Abdul Razaaq, and Shaykh Muslih regarding their new trench digging campaign. 'It's a chance for everyone to participate in jihad'
Blurb
Syrian Rebels forces liberated the very strategic town of Hamamiyaat last night from Assad forces. OGN Maps explains it's importance.
Last edited:
Salaam
Another update.
Blurb
After Russian jets systemically destroyed more than half the hospitals in rebel controlled territory, the opposition began to build them underground. One such hospital is in Jabal Turkman, but you'd never imagine it was inside of a mountain.
Most recent atrocity.
Chinese military operating in Syria?
Another update.
Blurb
After Russian jets systemically destroyed more than half the hospitals in rebel controlled territory, the opposition began to build them underground. One such hospital is in Jabal Turkman, but you'd never imagine it was inside of a mountain.
Most recent atrocity.
Chinese military operating in Syria?
Last edited:
Salaam
Dealing with a fake Muslim. Internet atheists really are tiresome.
Good news, seems he's given up on his crusade, good.
Dealing with a fake Muslim. Internet atheists really are tiresome.
Good news, seems he's given up on his crusade, good.
Last edited:
Salaam
Another update, like to share. Not too bad, helps understand the Iranian agenda for the Middle East.
Blurb
The Qods Force is the irregular warfare unit of Iran’s Corps of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Eslami). Created during the Holy Defense to augment the capabilities of the Sepah to include irregular warfare, it has since become one of the chief means of expanding Iranian ‘soft power’ within the Middle East and throughout the world.
Carrying the Persian name for Jerusalem, it is emblematic of the eschatological significance of the Islamic Republic’s regional military strategy. More has come to light about this secretive organization since its inception, but precious little of its organization, personnel, weaponry and operations is known, and comes to light only in the wake of its suspected activities.
The close of the Holy Defense in 1988 saw the completion of the first chapter of the history of the Islamic Republic – conventional war. The peace which followed left the new government intact but the population war-weary; the government needed to turn its attention to rebuilding the infrastructure and bringing orderliness to the disrupted lives of its people. The armed forces – both the Artesh and the Sepah – though rich with battle experience, had been worn down and desperately need this peace.
Hah!
Another update, like to share. Not too bad, helps understand the Iranian agenda for the Middle East.
Blurb
The Qods Force is the irregular warfare unit of Iran’s Corps of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Eslami). Created during the Holy Defense to augment the capabilities of the Sepah to include irregular warfare, it has since become one of the chief means of expanding Iranian ‘soft power’ within the Middle East and throughout the world.
Carrying the Persian name for Jerusalem, it is emblematic of the eschatological significance of the Islamic Republic’s regional military strategy. More has come to light about this secretive organization since its inception, but precious little of its organization, personnel, weaponry and operations is known, and comes to light only in the wake of its suspected activities.
The close of the Holy Defense in 1988 saw the completion of the first chapter of the history of the Islamic Republic – conventional war. The peace which followed left the new government intact but the population war-weary; the government needed to turn its attention to rebuilding the infrastructure and bringing orderliness to the disrupted lives of its people. The armed forces – both the Artesh and the Sepah – though rich with battle experience, had been worn down and desperately need this peace.
Hah!
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Salaam
Another update, the battle for Idlib continues, Assad forces are making slow progress.
Khan Sheikhoun a ghost town as Syrian regime advances
As the Syrian government inches closer to retaking rebel-held Khan Sheikhoun, the once-vibrant town in southern Idlib province is now largely abandoned.
Ahead of an expected regime assault on their hometown, residents have emptied out of Khan Sheikhoun and fled to the relative safety of areas further north. On Sunday night, the Syria Civil Defense workers known as the White Helmets helped evacuate the remaining families.
“The children were so afraid,” Hamid Qutini, a search-and-rescue volunteer, said. “We gave them cookies and tried to assure them that we would take them far away from the sounds of the explosions.”
Families in need of transport flagged the White Helmets down in their neighborhoods or contacted them on the online messaging service WhatsApp. Qutini describes seeing scores of frightened children, many of them orphans, clutching their blankets and pillows.
“This isn’t their fault,” Qutini said. “I felt so helpless that I couldn’t stop the bombings for them.”
Under the cover of darkness, Qutini and other volunteers drove the families to neighboring al-Dana, Atmeh and Idlib city.
With the nearby Turkish border closed to refugees, many of the displaced are now living in olive groves and sheltering beneath trees. Others are packed into overcrowded displacement camps.
Ziad Abboud, head of the White Helmets organization in Khan Sheikhoun, said his team rescued 90 residents earlier this week. They’re now focused on evacuating the northern countryside, including the towns of Hesh, Alteh and Kafar Sijnah.
“God willing, we will try to help them all,” Abboud said.
Since late April, forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have fought to wrest control of Idlib province which, along with parts of northern Hama, is the country’s last opposition stronghold after eight years of civil war.
The latest round of fighting near Khan Sheikhoun comes after the collapse of a brief ceasefire brokered by Syria’s main allies, Russia and Iran, and neighboring Turkey, which backs the opposition.
More than three million people are packed into the northwestern enclave. Nearly half are displaced from fighting elsewhere in the country.
Since late April, Russian and Syrian aerial attacks have pummeled Idlib, which is dominated by the al-Qaida-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group. The violence has killed at least 450 civilians and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes, according to the United Nations.
Rights groups accuse the regime and its ally Russia of intentionally striking civilian areas, which they deny. Earlier this month, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for an internal U.N. investigation into the targeting of hospitals and other civilian infrastructure in the densely populated region.
Khan Sheikhoun is of strategic importance. The town sits on what was once a vital commercial highway connecting the large northern city of Aleppo to the capital of Damascus.
The town is also symbolically significant. Khan Sheikhoun captured headlines in April 2017 when a sarin gas attack blamed on the regime killed some 90 people, including children. President Donald Trump ordered retaliatory missile strikes on Shayrat airbase from where the attack was likely launched.
Early on Wednesday Syria’s pro-opposition STEP News Agency reported that pro-regime forces had captured the village of Tal Aas, less than 5 km (3.1 miles) west of Khan Sheikhoun.
U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported troops loyal to Assad were just a few kilometers away from Khan Sheikhoun. Pro-government forces captured the village of al-Hobeit and made gains on the towns of Morek, Kafr Zeita and Latamneh, according to state news agency SANA and opposition activists.
“Russia is practicing a scorched-earth policy, paving the way for Assad’s troops,” said Captain Naji Mustafa, spokesperson for the Turkey-backed National Liberation Front rebel coalition.
Despite advancing from multiple axes, regime troops have taken some hits, Mustafa says.
“They haven’t been able to achieve their strategy so far, and the rebels are determined to resist them,” he told The Defense Post.
Mohammed Salloum was the last in his family to flee. His plan was to stay behind to keep watch over their house in Khan Sheikhoun, but then the aerial bombardment picked up.
“The barrel bombs were falling all around,” he said. “It was terrifying and I tried to get used to it, hoping it would stop.”
On Thursday, Salloum tossed his computer, camera and phone into a backpack, locked the door behind him and got on his motorcycle. On his way north to al-Dana, he passed rows of eerily quiet streets.
“There is no substitute for the former beauty of my city,” said Salloum. “Now, Khan Sheikhun is a ghost town,” said Salloum.
Salloum is currently living in a small, three-bedroom house he is sharing his parents, his three brothers and their families in al-Dana. None of them have found jobs in their new city and are struggling to pay the $100 owed each month in rent. Salloum hopes their situation is just temporary.
“There really is nothing harder than leaving your home.”
https://thedefensepost.com/2019/08/16/syria-khan-sheikhoun-refugees-idlib/
More generally
Blurb
Bilal Abdul Kareem will be answering your questions and taking your comments LIVE from Syria, so please join in.
Another update, the battle for Idlib continues, Assad forces are making slow progress.
Khan Sheikhoun a ghost town as Syrian regime advances
As the Syrian government inches closer to retaking rebel-held Khan Sheikhoun, the once-vibrant town in southern Idlib province is now largely abandoned.
Ahead of an expected regime assault on their hometown, residents have emptied out of Khan Sheikhoun and fled to the relative safety of areas further north. On Sunday night, the Syria Civil Defense workers known as the White Helmets helped evacuate the remaining families.
“The children were so afraid,” Hamid Qutini, a search-and-rescue volunteer, said. “We gave them cookies and tried to assure them that we would take them far away from the sounds of the explosions.”
Families in need of transport flagged the White Helmets down in their neighborhoods or contacted them on the online messaging service WhatsApp. Qutini describes seeing scores of frightened children, many of them orphans, clutching their blankets and pillows.
“This isn’t their fault,” Qutini said. “I felt so helpless that I couldn’t stop the bombings for them.”
Under the cover of darkness, Qutini and other volunteers drove the families to neighboring al-Dana, Atmeh and Idlib city.
With the nearby Turkish border closed to refugees, many of the displaced are now living in olive groves and sheltering beneath trees. Others are packed into overcrowded displacement camps.
Ziad Abboud, head of the White Helmets organization in Khan Sheikhoun, said his team rescued 90 residents earlier this week. They’re now focused on evacuating the northern countryside, including the towns of Hesh, Alteh and Kafar Sijnah.
“God willing, we will try to help them all,” Abboud said.
Since late April, forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have fought to wrest control of Idlib province which, along with parts of northern Hama, is the country’s last opposition stronghold after eight years of civil war.
The latest round of fighting near Khan Sheikhoun comes after the collapse of a brief ceasefire brokered by Syria’s main allies, Russia and Iran, and neighboring Turkey, which backs the opposition.
More than three million people are packed into the northwestern enclave. Nearly half are displaced from fighting elsewhere in the country.
Since late April, Russian and Syrian aerial attacks have pummeled Idlib, which is dominated by the al-Qaida-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group. The violence has killed at least 450 civilians and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes, according to the United Nations.
Rights groups accuse the regime and its ally Russia of intentionally striking civilian areas, which they deny. Earlier this month, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for an internal U.N. investigation into the targeting of hospitals and other civilian infrastructure in the densely populated region.
Khan Sheikhoun is of strategic importance. The town sits on what was once a vital commercial highway connecting the large northern city of Aleppo to the capital of Damascus.
The town is also symbolically significant. Khan Sheikhoun captured headlines in April 2017 when a sarin gas attack blamed on the regime killed some 90 people, including children. President Donald Trump ordered retaliatory missile strikes on Shayrat airbase from where the attack was likely launched.
Early on Wednesday Syria’s pro-opposition STEP News Agency reported that pro-regime forces had captured the village of Tal Aas, less than 5 km (3.1 miles) west of Khan Sheikhoun.
U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported troops loyal to Assad were just a few kilometers away from Khan Sheikhoun. Pro-government forces captured the village of al-Hobeit and made gains on the towns of Morek, Kafr Zeita and Latamneh, according to state news agency SANA and opposition activists.
“Russia is practicing a scorched-earth policy, paving the way for Assad’s troops,” said Captain Naji Mustafa, spokesperson for the Turkey-backed National Liberation Front rebel coalition.
Despite advancing from multiple axes, regime troops have taken some hits, Mustafa says.
“They haven’t been able to achieve their strategy so far, and the rebels are determined to resist them,” he told The Defense Post.
Mohammed Salloum was the last in his family to flee. His plan was to stay behind to keep watch over their house in Khan Sheikhoun, but then the aerial bombardment picked up.
“The barrel bombs were falling all around,” he said. “It was terrifying and I tried to get used to it, hoping it would stop.”
On Thursday, Salloum tossed his computer, camera and phone into a backpack, locked the door behind him and got on his motorcycle. On his way north to al-Dana, he passed rows of eerily quiet streets.
“There is no substitute for the former beauty of my city,” said Salloum. “Now, Khan Sheikhun is a ghost town,” said Salloum.
Salloum is currently living in a small, three-bedroom house he is sharing his parents, his three brothers and their families in al-Dana. None of them have found jobs in their new city and are struggling to pay the $100 owed each month in rent. Salloum hopes their situation is just temporary.
“There really is nothing harder than leaving your home.”
https://thedefensepost.com/2019/08/16/syria-khan-sheikhoun-refugees-idlib/
More generally
Blurb
Bilal Abdul Kareem will be answering your questions and taking your comments LIVE from Syria, so please join in.
Last edited:
Salaam
Another update.
Rapid opposition losses in southern Idlib & northern Hama in the past 2 weeks prompted Turkey to send additional convoys into Idlib, risking the lives of its soldiers & confrontation with the regime & Russia. What's behind these losses?
In the past 2 weeks, since the collapse of the brief ceasefire in Idlib, the regime & Russian-backed militias were able to take more territory than they were able to do in the first 3 months of their campaign.
I spoke to Idlib residents, incl rebels & opposition commanders to try to understand what's behind this collapse.
The main reason appears to be simply exhaustion: the rebels have been subjected to thousands of airstrikes. At least 2,000 rebels have been killed since late April.
2 weeks ago jihadist cleric Muhaysini said the opposition lost 1,600 fighters, probably an under-counting. Since then, the number of rebels killed has grown by the hundreds. Idlib is home to tens of thousands of rebels, but many of them have little recent fighting experience.
The fighting experience of some factions is lobbing rockets & manning checkpoints. The brunt of Idlib front-line fighting is being shouldered by Jaysh al-Izza, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and some sub-factions of the National Liberation Front. Attrition in their ranks is immense.
Only this week, "fresh" experienced fighters were dispatched to Idlib - jihadist factions moved forces from Lattakia to the Skayk-Tel Tar'i front-line, halting regime progress there.
Only this week HTS concluded a deal w/ the Turkish-backed National Army (SNA) to enter Idlib.
Some of the SNA factions recently underwent training in Turkey, but they have not fought without Turkish air cover for years. They're useful for fire support, tho.
In short: the opposition does not have enough experienced fighters on the front-lines to make up for fast attrition.
On the other hand, as shown in research of [MENTION=1492]Gregory[/MENTION]PWaters, the regime is able to rotate fresh units to the front-lines. Having destroyed all other rebel pockets, the regime can concentrate on Idlib (while neglecting the fighting against ISIS in the Homs/DeZ desert).
Thanks to Russian training, the regime also improved its fighting capacity, particularly at night, and its fighters now routinely utilize night-vision goggles/scopes (pic of regime fighters from Madaya).
Previously, nights were when opposition fighters often regained ground due to inability of regime air force to operate at night.
Rebels are fundraising to purchase night-vision goggles, but they are expensive & require training to be able to use effectively in combat.
The rebels are relying on ATGM strikes & SVBIED attacks, but those are not as effective as before. In the past, such attacks would prompt regime fighters to retreat. Now they launch new offensives merely hours after losing dozens of fighters to an SVBIED attack.
The regime & Russia have also changed targeting patterns of airstrikes. In the past, they would randomly bomb areas far from the front lines, just killing & terrorizing civilians. Now, air strikes are much more concentrated on areas close to front-lines, where the regime & Russia want to kill and displace civilians, and hit supply routes of the armed opposition.
For example, Idlib city, al-Atareb and towns in northern Idlib have largely escaped strikes, thus far. The concentration of firepower on a small stretch of land is much more effective militarily.
2 explanations to rebel losses commonly heard among Syrians are wrong, imo:
1) Iranian-backed forces joining the fight: no public evidence exists for this opposition claim (such as "martyrdom" notices)
2) A supposed deal between Turkey & Russia to hand over parts of Idlib in exchange for SDF areas: no evidence exists for this either & Russia doesn't get to decide the fate of SDF areas, the US does. Turkey also did not prevent SNA fighters from going to Idlib & provides ATGMs.
This theory is incredibly prevalent among Syrians residents incl rebels (I've heard it from all rebels with whom I spoke except HTS fighters). It possibly affects their morale and willingness to fight. Now that Turkey dispatched new convoys, this perception may change.
How does all of this affect civilians? This collapse in rebel ranks is terrifying civilians in Idlib. Many are rallying to help the rebels by cooking food for them, digging trenches, filling sand bags, donating money, providing tires to burn for makeshift air cover.
The rebels are much more reliant on the population now that support has been reduced/cut off by foreign backers. Weapons are still coming from Turkey, but salaries are laughable (NLF fighters get 50 Turkish Lira per month, $30), meaning families finance their sons' fighting.
Civilians in Idlib feel they have no choice but to stand behind the opposition. They believe, probably rightly so, that they will be slaughtered & jailed if the regime takes over. The border with Turkey is locked & smuggling is unaffordable.
The int'l community seems to have accepted that a tiny stretch of land populated with 3 million civilians, more than half of them children, will be bombed into oblivion. On an hourly basis, humans who feel pain just like we do are crushed under rubble, burned & displaced. Enough.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1163437614705381376.html
Good thread. IMHO, these are the main reasons for oppo losses (Which align mostly with yours)
- Effective Russian targeting of supply/reinforcement columns
- Effective co-ordination between Tiger ground forces, air, and arty
- Increased use of thermal optics/night attacks
I'd also say:
- Weak and entirely opaque Turkish actions
- and of course, oppo exhaustion
However imho Tigers have absolutely suffered and new rebel personnel movements, belated as they have been, may well make this fresh imputus stutter. As would a influx of Kornet
Also, Tigers are not especially skilled from all I hear. They do enjoy unending numbers of co-ordinated air/arty strikes that are rather effective, some training, lots & lots of new munitions that can be used to pummel into dust. Kafr N showed that if off guard, they have issues mentions Turkey has no will to stop this, or so it seems. Maybe the Tigers crowing over Turkish troops will switch this, but I doubt it.
Best case for oppo is National Army reinforcements in big numbers and attempts to grind Tigers like at Kabana with TIP, who are fighting hard.
However, I think after a pause regime will totally consolidate N. Hama (Having lost some armour from the hardcore HTS still there) then look to advance more. Idlib will certainly be v hard for them and I await Turkey finally realising what the numbers fleeing will be mentions Who knows?
If a Kaf N. happens again maybe we will see a prolonged stutter along with actual Turkish backbone, but I doubt it
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1163724506193678337.html
Another update.
Rapid opposition losses in southern Idlib & northern Hama in the past 2 weeks prompted Turkey to send additional convoys into Idlib, risking the lives of its soldiers & confrontation with the regime & Russia. What's behind these losses?
In the past 2 weeks, since the collapse of the brief ceasefire in Idlib, the regime & Russian-backed militias were able to take more territory than they were able to do in the first 3 months of their campaign.
I spoke to Idlib residents, incl rebels & opposition commanders to try to understand what's behind this collapse.
The main reason appears to be simply exhaustion: the rebels have been subjected to thousands of airstrikes. At least 2,000 rebels have been killed since late April.
2 weeks ago jihadist cleric Muhaysini said the opposition lost 1,600 fighters, probably an under-counting. Since then, the number of rebels killed has grown by the hundreds. Idlib is home to tens of thousands of rebels, but many of them have little recent fighting experience.
The fighting experience of some factions is lobbing rockets & manning checkpoints. The brunt of Idlib front-line fighting is being shouldered by Jaysh al-Izza, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and some sub-factions of the National Liberation Front. Attrition in their ranks is immense.
Only this week, "fresh" experienced fighters were dispatched to Idlib - jihadist factions moved forces from Lattakia to the Skayk-Tel Tar'i front-line, halting regime progress there.
Only this week HTS concluded a deal w/ the Turkish-backed National Army (SNA) to enter Idlib.
Some of the SNA factions recently underwent training in Turkey, but they have not fought without Turkish air cover for years. They're useful for fire support, tho.
In short: the opposition does not have enough experienced fighters on the front-lines to make up for fast attrition.
On the other hand, as shown in research of [MENTION=1492]Gregory[/MENTION]PWaters, the regime is able to rotate fresh units to the front-lines. Having destroyed all other rebel pockets, the regime can concentrate on Idlib (while neglecting the fighting against ISIS in the Homs/DeZ desert).
Thanks to Russian training, the regime also improved its fighting capacity, particularly at night, and its fighters now routinely utilize night-vision goggles/scopes (pic of regime fighters from Madaya).
Previously, nights were when opposition fighters often regained ground due to inability of regime air force to operate at night.
Rebels are fundraising to purchase night-vision goggles, but they are expensive & require training to be able to use effectively in combat.
The rebels are relying on ATGM strikes & SVBIED attacks, but those are not as effective as before. In the past, such attacks would prompt regime fighters to retreat. Now they launch new offensives merely hours after losing dozens of fighters to an SVBIED attack.
The regime & Russia have also changed targeting patterns of airstrikes. In the past, they would randomly bomb areas far from the front lines, just killing & terrorizing civilians. Now, air strikes are much more concentrated on areas close to front-lines, where the regime & Russia want to kill and displace civilians, and hit supply routes of the armed opposition.
For example, Idlib city, al-Atareb and towns in northern Idlib have largely escaped strikes, thus far. The concentration of firepower on a small stretch of land is much more effective militarily.
2 explanations to rebel losses commonly heard among Syrians are wrong, imo:
1) Iranian-backed forces joining the fight: no public evidence exists for this opposition claim (such as "martyrdom" notices)
2) A supposed deal between Turkey & Russia to hand over parts of Idlib in exchange for SDF areas: no evidence exists for this either & Russia doesn't get to decide the fate of SDF areas, the US does. Turkey also did not prevent SNA fighters from going to Idlib & provides ATGMs.
This theory is incredibly prevalent among Syrians residents incl rebels (I've heard it from all rebels with whom I spoke except HTS fighters). It possibly affects their morale and willingness to fight. Now that Turkey dispatched new convoys, this perception may change.
How does all of this affect civilians? This collapse in rebel ranks is terrifying civilians in Idlib. Many are rallying to help the rebels by cooking food for them, digging trenches, filling sand bags, donating money, providing tires to burn for makeshift air cover.
The rebels are much more reliant on the population now that support has been reduced/cut off by foreign backers. Weapons are still coming from Turkey, but salaries are laughable (NLF fighters get 50 Turkish Lira per month, $30), meaning families finance their sons' fighting.
Civilians in Idlib feel they have no choice but to stand behind the opposition. They believe, probably rightly so, that they will be slaughtered & jailed if the regime takes over. The border with Turkey is locked & smuggling is unaffordable.
The int'l community seems to have accepted that a tiny stretch of land populated with 3 million civilians, more than half of them children, will be bombed into oblivion. On an hourly basis, humans who feel pain just like we do are crushed under rubble, burned & displaced. Enough.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1163437614705381376.html
Good thread. IMHO, these are the main reasons for oppo losses (Which align mostly with yours)
- Effective Russian targeting of supply/reinforcement columns
- Effective co-ordination between Tiger ground forces, air, and arty
- Increased use of thermal optics/night attacks
I'd also say:
- Weak and entirely opaque Turkish actions
- and of course, oppo exhaustion
However imho Tigers have absolutely suffered and new rebel personnel movements, belated as they have been, may well make this fresh imputus stutter. As would a influx of Kornet
Also, Tigers are not especially skilled from all I hear. They do enjoy unending numbers of co-ordinated air/arty strikes that are rather effective, some training, lots & lots of new munitions that can be used to pummel into dust. Kafr N showed that if off guard, they have issues mentions Turkey has no will to stop this, or so it seems. Maybe the Tigers crowing over Turkish troops will switch this, but I doubt it.
Best case for oppo is National Army reinforcements in big numbers and attempts to grind Tigers like at Kabana with TIP, who are fighting hard.
However, I think after a pause regime will totally consolidate N. Hama (Having lost some armour from the hardcore HTS still there) then look to advance more. Idlib will certainly be v hard for them and I await Turkey finally realising what the numbers fleeing will be mentions Who knows?
If a Kaf N. happens again maybe we will see a prolonged stutter along with actual Turkish backbone, but I doubt it
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1163724506193678337.html
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Salaam
You cannot doubt their commitment and heroism.
Here's one notable example.
He's been reported dead a couple of times during this conflict so have to wait for confirmation.
He was in the news a couple of years back. Its sensationalist and one sided, still a good watch.
Blurb
Malhama Tactical, the world's first ever PMC for the Jihadi sector, was founded by a mysterious Russian speaking Uzbek called "Abu Rafiq."
You cannot doubt their commitment and heroism.
Here's one notable example.
He's been reported dead a couple of times during this conflict so have to wait for confirmation.
He was in the news a couple of years back. Its sensationalist and one sided, still a good watch.
Blurb
Malhama Tactical, the world's first ever PMC for the Jihadi sector, was founded by a mysterious Russian speaking Uzbek called "Abu Rafiq."
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Salaam
Rebels have suffered a significant defeat. They have been forced to withdraw from Khan Sheikhoun and its surroundings.
Family stayed in Syrian town during offensive as rebels ousted
Russia-backed Syrian forces found Abu Abdo and family this week in Khan Sheikhoun, a town which almost all other residents had fled during shelling in an offensive to take the area from rebel fighters.
“The last month was very bad. We couldn’t stand by the door because of the shelling ... We couldn’t go anywhere,” 55-year-old Abu Abdo told Reuters.
He said his was one of only around three families that stayed in the town through the offensive while all other civilians fled north, away from the shelling.
“When the army came they opened the door of the house and entered, thinking no one was here. But when they saw us they were very respectful and asked us what we needed,” he said from his house which had a couple of shell holes in the walls.
Khan Sheikhoun was one of the towns lost early in the eight-year-old war to rebels opposed to the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. On Friday the Syrian army said it had taken it back, along with a handful of other settlements.
“The fighters ran away a day before the army entered. There was a huge number of fighters here,” Abu Abdo said, referring to the rebels.
A renewed push by Syrian government and Russian forces to take the area has seen heavy strikes and advances this week in the south of Idlib province and nearby Hama, prompting a civilian exodus.
Hundreds of people have been killed in the campaign since late April and more than 500,000 people have been displaced, the United Nations said.
“The operation (to take Khan Sheikhoun) was difficult. The rebels were holed up for a month under heavy, continuous bombardment. Which caused them to withdraw to the north,” a military official said.
rest here
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-s...ring-offensive-as-rebels-ousted-idUKKCN1VE0U7
Frank acknowledgement of the defeat.
Blurb
The Syrian Arab Army with support from Russia have managed to capture the strategic town of Khan Shaykhun and all towns south of it from rebel forces. The Turkish Observation Post in the town of Morek, which was supposed to deter the Syrian Arab Army from advancing, is currently besieged.
Some comment.
Coco Jumbo
15 hours ago
What do you expect Turkey to do? They cant fight with rebels, it will upset Russia and they will start arming Kurds, 20milion Kurds live in Turkey.
Muhammed 3198Denix
1 day ago
I think the biggest problem that the mujahideen have is they don't have an organised leadership. By that, what I mean is that they don't have an ameer to tell them "hey look, this is how we will organise the economy, this is how much revenue we will gain, this is how we will attack the enemy, etc."
See, the reason why the taliban are successful is because they have an ameer in charge of them. While they are composed of tribal elements they are not factions like the national liberation army. It's also because of this ikhwani ideology that the rebels are suffering quite a lot. By that, they have this idea to bring islam through democratic principles, which has been proven not to work - look at Morsi as a recent example to see what I mean.
The people of Syria need a good old King like good old King Faisal rahimahullah to kick the daylights out of the regime. When the rebels have a propper King to manage their affairs the regime won't be able to do much because the rebels will be able to be coordinated better as they would gain orders from a higher authority.
The salvation government is far too weak to actually do anything major in this sphere.
Dr Shajul forced to leave.
Russians testing their latest weaponry.
Commenting on the aftermath.
The Turkish observation post surrounded.
Rebels have suffered a significant defeat. They have been forced to withdraw from Khan Sheikhoun and its surroundings.
Family stayed in Syrian town during offensive as rebels ousted
Russia-backed Syrian forces found Abu Abdo and family this week in Khan Sheikhoun, a town which almost all other residents had fled during shelling in an offensive to take the area from rebel fighters.
“The last month was very bad. We couldn’t stand by the door because of the shelling ... We couldn’t go anywhere,” 55-year-old Abu Abdo told Reuters.
He said his was one of only around three families that stayed in the town through the offensive while all other civilians fled north, away from the shelling.
“When the army came they opened the door of the house and entered, thinking no one was here. But when they saw us they were very respectful and asked us what we needed,” he said from his house which had a couple of shell holes in the walls.
Khan Sheikhoun was one of the towns lost early in the eight-year-old war to rebels opposed to the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. On Friday the Syrian army said it had taken it back, along with a handful of other settlements.
“The fighters ran away a day before the army entered. There was a huge number of fighters here,” Abu Abdo said, referring to the rebels.
A renewed push by Syrian government and Russian forces to take the area has seen heavy strikes and advances this week in the south of Idlib province and nearby Hama, prompting a civilian exodus.
Hundreds of people have been killed in the campaign since late April and more than 500,000 people have been displaced, the United Nations said.
“The operation (to take Khan Sheikhoun) was difficult. The rebels were holed up for a month under heavy, continuous bombardment. Which caused them to withdraw to the north,” a military official said.
rest here
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-s...ring-offensive-as-rebels-ousted-idUKKCN1VE0U7
Frank acknowledgement of the defeat.
Blurb
The Syrian Arab Army with support from Russia have managed to capture the strategic town of Khan Shaykhun and all towns south of it from rebel forces. The Turkish Observation Post in the town of Morek, which was supposed to deter the Syrian Arab Army from advancing, is currently besieged.
Some comment.
Coco Jumbo
15 hours ago
What do you expect Turkey to do? They cant fight with rebels, it will upset Russia and they will start arming Kurds, 20milion Kurds live in Turkey.
Muhammed 3198Denix
1 day ago
I think the biggest problem that the mujahideen have is they don't have an organised leadership. By that, what I mean is that they don't have an ameer to tell them "hey look, this is how we will organise the economy, this is how much revenue we will gain, this is how we will attack the enemy, etc."
See, the reason why the taliban are successful is because they have an ameer in charge of them. While they are composed of tribal elements they are not factions like the national liberation army. It's also because of this ikhwani ideology that the rebels are suffering quite a lot. By that, they have this idea to bring islam through democratic principles, which has been proven not to work - look at Morsi as a recent example to see what I mean.
The people of Syria need a good old King like good old King Faisal rahimahullah to kick the daylights out of the regime. When the rebels have a propper King to manage their affairs the regime won't be able to do much because the rebels will be able to be coordinated better as they would gain orders from a higher authority.
The salvation government is far too weak to actually do anything major in this sphere.
Dr Shajul forced to leave.
Russians testing their latest weaponry.
Commenting on the aftermath.
The Turkish observation post surrounded.
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Salaam
Another update, not sure what to make of this, could be propaganda having said this there's been so much skulduggery going on in this conflict that one can see the plausibility.
Related? Is it likely that Erdogan (in the long term) prefers national stability & good relations with Russia (access to their weaponry, economics etc) over supporting the rebels? Or is he wary, given the history.
Another update, not sure what to make of this, could be propaganda having said this there's been so much skulduggery going on in this conflict that one can see the plausibility.
Related? Is it likely that Erdogan (in the long term) prefers national stability & good relations with Russia (access to their weaponry, economics etc) over supporting the rebels? Or is he wary, given the history.
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