Oh Syria the victory is coming

Salaam

Alliances on the ground keep shifting.



Protests at the Turkish border











An interview



The Town of Binnish: Interview

The town of Binnish lies in Idlib province and quickly became associated with the uprising and insurgency in the northwest of Syria.

What is the present situation in the town? To learn more, I interviewed a resident of Binnish who used to be a media activist. We also discussed his own view of the long term outlook for the northwest of Syria.

This interview was conducted on 20 August 2019. It is slightly edited and condensed for clarity. Any parenthetical insertions in square brackets are my own.

Q: Can you tell me a little about the town of Binnish generally? The number of inhabitants and IDPs currently, and the general situation in the town.

A: The number of original inhabitants was previously around 40,000. After displacement, around 20,000-25,000 have remained. And regarding the number of IDPs currently, I cannot give you an estimate because you know of the movement of displaced people that has occurred some days ago. By God as your trustee, not one house- even ruined- has remained without being inhabited. Even two days ago, the local council set up a camp on the peripheries for IDPs.

The situation generally right now: we can say it is acceptable regarding normal and civilian life.

Q: Is there water available in the homes?

A: It is made available through water trucks [tankers].

Q: And all the electricity comes from generators?

A: Yes of course, from generators for more than 3 years.

Q: What are the main problems regarding services and the humanitarian situation?

A: Regarding services in Binnish, the aid organizations that undertake services are very few or perhaps there are none. Therefore there will be shortcoming in services and the simplest example is that of moving garbage or fixing landfills.

There is a deterioration in the humanitarian situation especially in light of the decrease of the value of the Syrian pound and rise of the value of the dollar and the resultant rise of prices.

Q: So there is much shortcoming in moving garbage.

A: No, not much. Perhaps once a week it is moved and sometimes [once every] two weeks, and the reason is that there is no capability of operating vehicles to move garbage.

Q: Currently many of the youth of Binnish are fighting on the fighting fronts in south Idlib?

A: Yes, there are many. Those I know of my companions to be wounded and those who are going out: more than 50 people have enlisted. Of course there are also battalions and groups participating in south Idlib that are from Binnish.

Q: Most of these battalions from Binnish are with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham?

A: No. There are commandos affiliated with Ahrar al-Sham and battalions affiliated with Faylaq al-Sham.

Q: Currently how do you assess the fighting on the fronts in south Idlib? It seems that the factions have lost many fighters.

A: Attrition.

Q: And they are withdrawing from the areas.

A: Exactly, they have lost many fighters and much equipment. Their withdrawal is because of a scorched earth policy.

Q: Meaning a scorched earth policy by the Russians?

A: Exactly.

Q: From Binnish for example how many fighters have died during the recent fighting?

A: Around 35 people have been killed in the recent battles.

Q: Do you expect that Khan Sheikhoun will fall and with it all of north Hama countryside?

A: No. Regarding Khan Sheikhoun if it is going to fall, [it will fall] after the fall of the areas surrounding it from the north: i.e. after cutting off the reinforcement path and that is the Aleppo path. But the regime is not in the business of entering into street battles and fighting. As for the fall of the north countryside: if the Russians and Turks and other parties agree to a handover, all areas will fall. And this is what is happening now. The simplest example of this is as follows: why don't the Russian and Syrian forces bomb the Turks' points if in their view the Turks are the ones supporting the factions fighting on the fronts? Note that there is a point for the Turks in the town of Morek and it is around 15km to the south of Khan Sheikhoun.

Q: Yes, true. What are your expectations regarding the Idlib area in general for the long term?

A: We will be like the Gaza Strip in Palestine. That is, an area of experiments of international agreements and experiments for weapons and constant conflicts.

Q: Not a good future by God.

A: God knows best. A future that is not good. But this has become the case in more than one state from Palestine to Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon etc.

Q: Yes true. What is the opinion of the civilians about the factions?

A: Pleasing the people is an unattainable goal. Among them are those who are very afraid and will tell you that they have sold out [the cause/revolution] and all of them are [embodying] agendas. And there are people who will say to you: God give them victory. And there are people [who say]: God rid us of the two sides. To God is the matter.

Q: So the opinions differ from one person to the next.

A: Of course.

http://www.aymennjawad.org/2019/08/the-town-of-binnish-interview

 
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Salaam

Another update



Syria: Assad holds rich cousin so he can pay Putin’s war loans

Syria’s ruling family has been torn apart by a row between President Assad and his cousin, the country’s richest man, over his refusal to pay off the nation’s war debts with his ostentatiously displayed fortune.

The dispute, reported by pro and anti-regime figures as well as news websites, began with social media posts by Mohammad Makhlouf, 22, the son of Rami Makhlouf, Assad’s first cousin, who owns many of Syria’s biggest businesses.

Mr Makhlouf Jr has become known for his Instagram feed, on which he is seen posing in front of sports cars and the enormous villa in which he lives in Dubai. In a recent article he claimed to be about to invest $300 million in property in Syria, saying that the money came…

rest here

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...usin-so-he-can-pay-putins-war-loans-pl7pplrm6

Moscow collects its spoils of war in Assad’s Syria

Company controlled by friend of Russian president gains foothold in lucrative phosphate sector

At the state-run fertiliser plant near the city of Homs, gun-toting Russian mercenaries are on patrol, protecting a key element of Syria’s important phosphates industry.

President Vladimir Putin’s decision to throw Russia’s military weight behind Syria’s leader Bashar al-Assad helped turn the eight-year civil war in the regime’s favour. The Homs factory points to what Moscow received in return: a lucrative foothold in a key Syrian strategic resource.

Syria is estimated to have one of the world’s largest reserves of phosphates, which is essential to make fertilisers. And a company controlled by Russian oligarch Gennady Timchenko, a close friend of Mr Putin, appears to have built an increasingly dominant position.

Syrian state-owned media reported in March 2018 that the country’s People’s Assembly was set to ratify a contract for Mr Timchenko’s company, Stroytransgaz Logistic, to operate the phosphate mine near the Syrian city of Palmyra.

According to such press reports, it is also partnering with state-owned General Fertiliser Company (GFC) at the Homs plant and this year received a contract to run the port of Tartous, from where raw phosphate rock and fertiliser are shipped overseas. Iran, which also gave military support to the Assad regime, has been promised access to key industries, including rights to another phosphate mine.

Syria’s phosphates trade is not illegal — but it is shadowy. One reason, say businesspeople, is that according to contract terms reported by Syrian state-owned media, some profit from the sale of the resource ends up in the hands of the Assad regime, an international pariah for its brutal conduct during the civil war.

Phosphates are not subject to US, European and UN sanctions that have hurt the country’s other industries, notably its oil sector. But the fear of dealing with sanctioned entities ensures that foreign companies are generally wary of Syrian exports.

Mr Timchenko and Stroytransgaz were also sanctioned by the US for “materially assisting” Russian government officials following the 2014 invasion of Crimea. When it was reported last year that phosphates traded under the Stroytransgaz deal had reached Greece, it prompted questions in the European Parliament.

Executives at other phosphate companies say that to circumvent the reluctance to deal with Syria, their teams label raw Syrian phosphate as Lebanese, even though there are no phosphate mines in Lebanon.

The true extent of relabelling is unclear, but EU data show phosphates worth €2m arrived in the Netherlands from Lebanon in 2018. According to one person who clears goods at the Syrian border, a regular flow of phosphate-loaded trucks crosses into Lebanon.

Lebanese and Syrian customs documents seen by the Financial Times show two near-6,000-tonne shipments of phosphate fertiliser were transported from the Lebanese port of Tripoli in May and June. The first vessel, Raouf H, later docked at the Greek port of Nea Karvali, according to data from MarineTraffic.com.

Shipping documents for the second vessel, Tenacity, also show Nea Karvali as the cargo’s discharge port. There are several fertiliser plants in the surrounding Kavala municipality.

Cedar Marine Services, the Lebanese company that operates Raouf H, did not respond to a request for comment. Tenacity’s operator could not be reached for comment. Greece’s statistical authority told the FT it would search for import data covering phosphates and fertiliser, then stopped responding to messages.

Syria’s phosphate exports jumped this year, despite the obstacles. Data from CRU, a commodity research firm, showed exports would hit 460,000 tonnes this year, from 328,000 tonnes in 2018. The data may not include all exports. In 2010, exports were 3.1m tonnes, but crashed to zero in 2016 as civil war raged.

People with knowledge of the trade said current phosphate exports were from stockpiles, and that no fresh mining had started. Stroytransgaz appears to have rights to mine Syrian phosphate but it is unclear whether it has actually begun mining.

Stroytransgaz has won dozens of contracts to build energy infrastructure and logistics projects in Russia and other countries with strong ties to Moscow. Mr Timchenko is an old friend and judo sparring partner of the Russian president. The pair worked together during Mr Putin’s time in the St Petersburg administration in the 1990s.

Mr Timchenko’s connections to the Kremlin and the fact he has already been sanctioned make him a rare industrialist able and willing to oversee Russian involvement in Syrian phosphates, fertiliser industry executives and analysts say. “It’s a simple bit of business for [him],” said one. “It’s low cost and the market is there.”


https://www.ft.com/content/30ddfdd0-b83e-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203

 
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Salaam

Another update.

Blurb

Hundreds of thousands of new internally displaced refugees have fled to the Turkish border in order to escape the advancing Syrian Arab Army. We asked them what they thought about the Turkish military presence in Syria, here's what they had to say...


Blurb

We often hear about negotiations and foreign conferences in the name of the Syrian revolution. Our team toured the city of Dana in Idlib Governorate to find out what the people are think about the negotiations and whether they are aware of those who are negotiating and representing them.


Protests against HTS in Idlib.





Dissent.



Counter demonstrations.

 
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Salaam

Another update.

From Erdogan.



US bombings killed 700 in Idlib within last two days - Erdogan

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said plans for the safe zone to be established along the Turkish border in Syrian territory were not progressing despite the agreement reached with the United States, and spoke further about developments in the war-torn country.

“When we say ‘Let’s go,’ we can’t find anybody to take action. The safe zone is left only in name,” said Erdoğan in a press briefing on Tuesday.

“Idlib is slowly disappearing, like Aleppo was torn to the ground,” said President Erdoğan.

Erdoğan continued to say that the U.S. bombings in Idlib last two days have killed some 700 civilians in the area. “However the U.S. got involved with the bombings activities within last two days unfortunately, and the fact that there are 700 civilians killed here. There may be militants with ties to terrorism as well as civilians,” he said.

The strategically important town of Khan Sheikhoun in the Idlib province had been captured by Syrian regime forces on August 11, which also resulted in Turkish troops in the region to be trapped.

Russia expert Kerim Has spoke to Ahval Turkish and said Turkey’s observation point no.9 had come under the regime’s control.

“Turkish troops, who had entered Idlib to protect civilians from regime attacks, became hostages to the regime and attempted to keep their prestige intact by asking for help from Russian troops,” said Has, and added that Turkey was escorted out of the observation point no.9 by Russia.

In the press briefing, President Erdoğan also spoke about the European Union’s refugee policies and said Turkey invested 40 billion dollars, whereas the EU fell short of three billion euros. “They keep stalling,” he said.

“The offer [of a safe zone] had been on the table in Mr. Obama’s term, and I proposed the safe zone matter to Mr. Trump as well,” said Erdoğan on Tuesday. The Turkish president added that Germany, France and Saudi Arabia agreed that the proposal was good, but haven’t taken any action.

Erdoğan detailed his vision of the safe zone as a 30 km-deep area along the whole of the Turkish border, with housing projects constructed by Turkish companies. The houses to be built would have gardens and refugees to be resettled in the area would be able to grow their own food.

https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-usa/us-bombings-killed-700-idlib-within-last-two-days-erdogan



Edit - another update.

 
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Salaam

Another update.

Blurb


There’s a debate within Free Syria as to whether journalists here should cover all the news or be selective in their reporting. At OGN we believe that our viewers have the right to know what is happening in order to make informed decisions.


Blurb

Highly and widely respected military commander of HTS, Abu Abd, released an unprecedented video charging HTS with corruption & mismanagement of the jihad in Syria. This is a translation of his statement in full. OGN cannot independently verify his statements.


 
Salaam

Like to share.

Blurb

Air strikes have been targeting hospitals in the rebel-held province of Idlib, Syria, despite the fact that it is a war crime. Medics have been forced underground in order to survive.

The UN accuses the Syrian government and allied Russian warplanes of conducting a deadly campaign that appears to target medical facilities.

BBC's Middle East correspondent, Quentin Sommerville, visits one hospital in a secret location.


 
Salaam

Another update. Leader of HTS has been reported dead, needs to be confirmed.



This is outdated but interesting insight into the evolution of HTS.



Amid the ongoing conflict in NW #Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (#HTS) continues to evolve in intriguing ways - into a more politically mature & intelligent jihadist movement.

It's current leadership clearly seeks to position itself somewhere between #MuslimBrotherhood & #AlQaeda.

There's now little question that #HTS no longer represents #AlQaeda.

It's clearly still an extremist movement, but signs continue to add up indicating that it's developing into something qualitatively different than the Jabhat al-Nusra of 2014-15 - a "Shami #Taliban," perhaps.

Most recently in the public space, #HTS issued a statement acknowledging its willingness to abide by an externally-negotiated (by #Turkey, #Iran & #Russia) ceasefire.

That was a first.

Its never happened before in #Syria & it's not a move any #AlQaeda affiliate would ever take.

On Aug 3, #HTS leader #Jolani held a "press conference" addressing the situation in #Idlib & #Syria nationwide.

His language was a stark departure from a jihad-heavy, theologically-dominated lecture.

Close your eyes & he sounded like an #FSA leader, albeit far more intelligent.

#pt: In a 22-min dialogue, #Jolani combined military, political, societal & economic analysis into his comments on #Syria.

He talked about "Alawites," not "Nusayris."

He talked about "revolution," not "jihad."

He described sacrifice as a loss, not a religious duty to glorify.

Some of #Jolani's rhetorical change is almost certainly "controlled pragmatism" employed for strategic reasons, but these public changes are beginning to have an effect.

I'm told:

- #HTS recruitment is up.
- Local donations are up.
- Popular credibility is starting to recover.

#Jolani's rhetorical shifts are also not limited to the public.

In closed meetings, he continues to push the concept of an entity called "The Liberated Territories of Northern Syria."

He frequently cites lessons from #CheGuevara & goes deep on modern Arab political history.

What's equally interesting is developments behind the scenes.

- Several #Europe-an governments are debating whether to engage in exploratory dialogue with #HTS's political office.

- Several independent Western initiatives are already talking with #HTS, deciphering its vision.

This interest in the West, centered in #Europe, isn't coming from nowhere.

CT & #Syria analysts in government have been watching #HTS's evolution closely. So has the @UN.

And #HTS has repeatedly sent messages through intermediaries indicating their interest in dialogues.

For now, I'm not sure (a) we or (b) (#HTS) is necessarily ready for any such initiative.

But #Afghanistan's #Taliban stands as a precedent, particularly if #Idlib remains unresolved/irreconcilable or "Gazified."

However, #HTS's designated status presents a significant obstacle.

#pts: Whatever does/doesn't come from this in the NW #Syria context, jihadists worldwide are watching #HTS closely.

Some are viscerally critical & others are intrigued by #Jolani's so-called "popular" model.

Amid #AlQaeda's continued decentralization, #HTS lessons are crucial.

#Zawahiri is in bad health & #HamzaBinLaden is dead.

Despite #Zawahiri ordering his affiliates to re-pivot back to #BinLaden's "elite vanguard" model, most continue to pursue some variation of #Nusra's localized #Syria strategy, which furthers their respective autonomy from AQC.

In #Algeria, #AQIM is encouraging its members & supporters to pursue *only* peaceful political protest, while fighting jihad elsewhere.

In #Yemen, #Mali & elsewhere, #AlQaeda affiliates have doubled-down on localism, embedding deeply in local dynamics to broaden their appeal.

This localism appears to be the future of an #AlQaeda movement increasingly disconnected strategically & tactically from its aging, besieged & disconnected leadership.

This isn't necessarily a good thing -- more nimble, embedded & intelligent jihadists pose worrying challenges.

Some context to bear in mind:

This thread above is purely analytical, based on my intensive research focus on #Nusra/#JFS/#HTS since '11-12.

I've been told I'm on their hit-list.

I've had multiple, serious threats from them, because of my work & contacts within their ranks.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1159116400474148866.html

Good point, why would western elites be interested in dealing with HTS.

 
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Salaam

Americans are withdrawing from Syria.



And the reasoning behind it.



Turkey moving in



Kurds mobilise in Syria as Turkey poised for imminent attack

Civilians urged by Kurdish leadership to head to the border with Turkey to face the expected military onslaught.

Syrian Kurds issued a "general mobilisation" call to civilians to head to the border on Wednesday to "resist" an imminent military operation by neighbouring Turkey that could lead to a "humanitarian catastrophe".

Ankara has massed thousands of troops and readied heavy weapons for days along its border with Syria and vowed it would go ahead with the operation and not bow to a US threat over its military plans against the Kurds and their military, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

"We announce three days of general mobilisation in northern and eastern Syria," the Kurdish civilian administration said in a statement.

It urged all civilians to "head to the border with Turkey ... to resist during this delicate historical moment".

Turkey has long threatened an attack on the Kurdish fighters in Syria whom Ankara considers "terrorists" allied with a decades-long Kurdish insurgency within Turkey that has left an estimated 40,000 people dead.

Expectations for an assault rose after President Donald Trump on Sunday abruptly announced American troops would step aside ahead of the Turkish push - a shift in US policy that essentially abandoned the Syrian Kurds, longtime American allies in the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, ISIS) in Syria.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019...y-poised-imminent-attack-191009082738194.html


Turkish troops advance into Syria as Trump washes his hands of the Kurds

Civilians flee as airstrikes and artillery hit border region

Trump on Kurds: ‘They didn’t help us in Normandy’

Turkish troops have advanced into north-eastern Syria, following airstrikes and artillery barrages aimed at US-backed Kurdish forces who control the region.

The Turkish military confirmed on Wednesday it had “launched the land operation into the east of the Euphrates river” and later said it had hit 181 “militant targets”.

Video footage showed civilians fleeing towns with columns of smoke rising in the background and jet trails visible in the sky.

Activists and observers said at least seven civilians had been killed so far. There were also early reports of civilian casualties in border towns hit by shelling. Pictures and video shared on social media showed wrecked buildings and bodies in the rubble.

Turkey’s offensive was triggered by a call between Donald Trump and Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on Sunday, in which, the Turks claim, Trump handed over leadership of the campaign against Isis in Syria to Ankara. The American president announced on Sunday night that US troops would withdraw from the region.

Gülnur Aybet, one of the Turkish president’s senior advisers, told CNN: “President Trump and President Erdoğan have reached an understanding over precisely what this operation is.” Aybet added that Trump “knows what the scope of this operation is”.

Hours after the bombing began, Trump issued a statement mildly criticising the offensive aimed at Kurdish forces, which for nearly five years fought alongside the US against Isis.

“The United States does not endorse this attack and has made it clear to Turkey that this operation is a bad idea,” the statement said, before noting: “There are no American soldiers in the area.”

In remarks later, Trump presented the invasion as a historical inevitability, saying Turks and Kurds “have been fighting each other for centuries”. And he downplayed the US debt to Kurdish fighters, saying: “They didn’t help us in the second world war, they didn’t help us with Normandy … but they’re there to help us with their land.”

The UN security council is due to convene on Thursday to discuss the offensive at the request of its five current European members, but it is not expected to deliver a strong rebuke to Turkey, given tacit Russian support and US ambivalence.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/09/turkey-syria-attack-latest-news-kurds-trump
 
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Salaam

Much commentary on Trumps decision. an American supporter who wants an end to US involvement.

The Great Withdrawal begins

The God-Emperor is directly confronting the treasonous neoclowns.

President Donald Trump’s sudden decision to pull back U.S. troops from northern Syria drew quick, strong criticism Monday from some of his closest allies in Congress. It was condemned, too, by Kurdish fighters who would be abandoned to face a likely Turkish assault after fighting alongside Americans for years against the Islamic State.

The announcement threw the military situation in Syria into fresh chaos and injected deeper uncertainty into U.S. relations with European allies. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham called it “a disaster,” while Syria’s Kurds accused the U.S. of turning its back on allies and risking gains made in the years-long fight against ISIS.

Trump defended his decision, acknowledging in tweets that “the Kurds fought with us” but adding that they “were paid massive amounts of money and equipment to do so.”

“I held off this fight for almost 3 years, but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home,” he wrote.
Click to expand...

There are precisely zero Americans who aren't on the neoclown take who don't support the withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East. The most idiotic thing about the mainstream narrative here is that it wasn't the US military that defeated ISIS in the first place, it was Syria, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.

It's not as if the neoclowns actually care about the Kurds or the sovereign integrity of Syria, it's that they are seeing their insane dreams of orchestrating a US-Iran war vanishing into smoke.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/
 
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Salaam

A Kurdish perspective.



I am not a proponent of what Kurds do politically (my own people) however the amount of Muslim Asian people who support turkey and what they are about to do to my people makes me sick to my stomach and angers me alot.

Kurds fully support their Muslim brothers around the world yet you cannot do the very same? You support a tyrant who will eviscerate kurdish lands and take what doesn't belong to him.

You support tyranny on your own Muslim brothers and sisters? I could not care less about PKK and ypg but the innocent civilians who will lose their homes and lives, you truly need to wake up and stop being fully stuck in the deep deep crevices of Turkish. . . . .

Sunni Muslims supporting killings on other sunni Muslims. You Asian Muslims need to wake up wallah.

More scepticism.







The wider perspective.







Unusual, the Arab league is reacting fast to Turkish actions.

Arab League calls crisis meeting on Turkey's Syria offensive

Saturday talks to focus on consequences of Turkish offensive

The Arab League will hold an emergency meeting Saturday on a Turkish military offensive unleashed earlier Wednesday inside Syria, a source at the organisation has said.

The meeting will be held at the level of foreign ministers in the premises of the Arab League in Cairo, the source added on condition of anonymity.

The gathering comes at Egypt’s request and will discuss the consequences of the Turkish invasion and ways to protect Syria’s territorial integrity, the source said.

Egypt has condemned the Turkish incursion into north-eastern Syria, calling it an “unacceptable, blatant aggression”.

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/ara...ng-on-turkeys-syria-offensive-1.1570654063821



Bibi is outraged at the sight of ethnic cleansing, irony is dead.



He has a short memory.



Will the real Bibi please stand up?
 
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Salaam

Perspectives from those who are in favour of this operation and those critical of Kurdish actions. Have to say some of the language they use is deeply troubling, borrows a lot of rhetoric from the 'war on terror' almost Orwellian. For example Operation 'Peace Spring'? Really? :hmm:



Blurb

Turkey has launched a major military operation in northeastern Syria aimed at removing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the border area and creating a "safe zone" so millions of Syrian refugees can be returned.

The SDF is an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias that was instrumental in driving out ISIL over the past four years, backed by air strikes of a US-led coalition.

But Turkey considers the Kurdish-led alliance a “terrorist” group because it says its main fighting force is The People's Protection Units, or YPG.

Turkey views the YPG as an extension of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has fought for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey for more than three decades.


Western criticism of Turkey’s Syria operation is a joke

The West's fetishisation of the YPG in northern Syria is ignorant and insulting to all Kurds - and that's just one part of a broad narrative riddled with hypocrisy and an ignorance of history.

Were it not for its effect on the lives, safety and security of real people, the Western pantomime over how it treats its NATO ally Turkey would be an absolute joke.

Western politicians, journalists, analysts, and experts have been, on the whole, highly critical of Turkey’s operation in northern Syria to clear out what Ankara has dubbed a “peace corridor” across a stretch about 30 kilometres deep and 400 kilometres wide.

US President Donald Trump spoke to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and stated that his country’s forces would not get in the way of Ankara’s plans to secure its border with Syria.

The collective shrieking about “the Kurds”, this monolithic entity that the Western imagination has conjured up, is embarrassing. This is not only because it is based on lies, but also because this sudden Western fascination with “stability” and “not betraying allies” is said with such a straight face, you’d think the West never destabilised the Middle East in the first place and had never betrayed any of their so-called “allies” before.

Obama’s betrayal created this situation

Firstly, it is an insult to Kurdish people for Western policymakers and pundits to lump them all under the banner of the YPG – the Syrian branch of the PKK terrorist organisation.

There are millions of Kurds, and to describe them all as leftist extremists who have no qualms about recruiting child soldiers, racist war crimes, and a plethora of human rights abuses is fetishistic and typical of Western reductionism.

For Western analysts to continue to harp on about “Rojava”, an absolute non-entity, and to make it out like it is an almost contiguous zone inhabited solely by Kurds is to change the facts on the ground to cover up for the YPG’s reign of terror over northern Syria’s Arab and Turkmen population.

The radical leftist group has been actively razing Arab and Turkmen villages, displacing populations, and refusing to let them return despite there no longer being a Daesh threat to justify their war crimes.

Of course, none of this would have been possible without Commander-in-Speech Barack Obama’s disastrous Syria policy. Rather than accusing Trump of “betraying” Washington’s Marxist friends, perhaps Western policymakers and influencers would have deigned to remember that Obama betrayed millions of Syrians – Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen – when he did not enforce his red line on Syrian tyrant Bashar al Assad’s use of chemical weapons.

The harrowing footage of Syrian civilians gasping for their final breaths should haunt these people’s dreams if they had any conscience left in them.

Obama also abandoned the Free Syrian Army and other pro-democracy groups out of sheer simplicity. The excuse that had been bandied about Washington and which has resurfaced in light of Trump’s recent announcement was that the Turkish-backed FSA was riddled with jihadist groups and that is why the Obama administration sided with the YPG to use as their ground forces against the Daesh menace.

Not only is that a perfidious lie that is rooted in Western anti-Arab and Islamophobic sentiment, but Turkey, a state-actor with the second-largest army in NATO, was also shunned in favour of the YPG which had since been rebranded as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The SDF was incessantly fetishised with its female fighters shown to be “Western enough” to be worthy of support and attention, with everyone else being akin to “terrorists” whose lives did not matter if Assad blotted them out or not.

The net result of all this was that Obama spat in the face of his Turkish ally, actively armed and funded the YPG that is so clearly linked (PKK) that to deny it is to be a bare-faced liar, and forced Ankara to decouple its policy priorities from Washington’s and focus on its urgent national security instead.

Turkey’s recalibration is all perfectly reasonable, and the US’ actions created a fissure between these two NATO allies, pushing Turkey to move closer to Russia.

Blaming Trump for Obama’s mistakes is ludicrous

This is why it is outrageous for people like Senator Lindsey Graham, who described the arming of YPG militants as a “dumb idea” earlier this year and publicly admitted they are a threat to Turkey, to now come out swinging against Turkey and threatening economic sanctions should Ankara defend its borders as it has every right to.

Watching American conservatives suddenly come out in support of ideological Marxists is interesting in and of itself, but also shows how ideology gets kicked to the back of the bus when realpolitik is at play.

Suddenly, the YPG morphed into “the Kurds”, completely ignoring Kurdish factions aligned to Turkey and the FSA as well as ordinary civilians who are not partisan.

All Trump is doing is effectively reversing a catastrophic strategic decision and, at least for now, appears to be getting out of the way of his state actor ally in maintaining its national security priorities through military intervention.

It is out of the question for Turkey to allow a YPG-controlled zone right on its border where they will surely assist the PKK who will commit even more terrorist attacks against the Turkish public.

The YPG was never an ally to the United States but were in fact tools. Now that the Daesh threat has been largely eliminated or at least massively curtailed, it is in Washington’s interests to move closer to its actual ally, Turkey, which is a state actor, can and has contributed to US interests around the world, and has an economy with which to do business with.

To the US government, the YPG were grunts on the ground, no more and no less, and they should never have been relied upon in the first place.

Think-tankers, policymakers, journalists and others worried about American credibility in selling out a terrorist organisation would find their time better spent worrying about American credibility in continuing to abandon Turkey, a close ally since the Cold War.

https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/western-criticism-of-turkey-s-syria-operation-is-a-joke-30504

More on the background.

Blurb

Western news media outlets seem to think they owe a debt of gratitude to the PKK-aligned militias that Trump dumped last week to get eaten by Turkey. Here is what everyone is forgetting!




Turkish PR



The numbers are questionable but good short summary on PKK/YPG etc record



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1182815450532601857.html



A deal has been done by the major powers in this conflict?. Can believe it.



Assad to be restored, pre 2011?

 
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‘War on terror’ is a rhetoric for the imperial western states who invade the oil rich countries coming from the other part of the world but it is unfortunately a reality for Turkey who has been continously attacked by these terrorists for decades. Our target must be only to keep that safe zone. On the other hand I dont trust our president so much as in all the other cases. Inshallah everything becomes all right.
 
Salaam

More thoughtful analysis.



Turkey was hesitant to support the revolution directly. But what made them change their mind was the Libya blunder. Turkey did not support anti-Qaddafi protests first due to huge economic ties. But they soon realized Qaddafi is falling and new order could turn against Turkey.

Turkish leadership caught up quickly and compensated for its late support to Libyan rebels by great logistic and advocacy for the rebels. Libyans accepted the change and Turkey became a main player in post-Qaddafi period. So they had that in mind when thinking of Syria.

In addition to the ‘lesson’ learnt from Libya, they saw the Egypt experience. How the new order in Egypt dominated by Islamists was proving to be a great ally. The thought of such an ally in Syria was a delicious one.

Turkish leadership suddenly saw itself at the leadership of the pro-Arab Spring wave. The Syrian revolution had greatest emotional support across the Sunni world and not supporting it would have killed Erdogan’s image in the Muslim world as the ‘mazlumlarin sesi’.

Turkey finally made its mind. It took the side of thE Syrian people. And when the Syrian revolution got militarized, they provided support. Turkey had chosen a path of no-return. Assad had to go. The goal in Syria became ‘praying victory at Ummayid mosque’.

Turkey was fully aware how the pro-PKK Kurds had exploited Assad’s weakness to slowly take charge in the Kurdish areas. But Turkey was amidst another promising path: peace process with PKK. There was a ceasefire. They watched PYD rise in Syria but did nothing.

Fast forward. Everything changed. Counter-Arab Spring wave gained momentum. Egypt MB failed. Russia & Iran came to Assad’s rescue. Syrian opposition failed. ISIS appeared. From Russia/Iran media & Saudis to Gulenists, Erdogan was linked to ISIS. AKP lost 1st election in 15 yrs

Erdogan soon realized not only his neo-Ottaman dreams are difficult to achieve, he is about to lose power facing a more united opposition while Turkey is about to be neighbors with a pro-PKK autonomous region. And suddenly the panic kicked in. Turkey changed course in Syria.

At home, Erdogan embraced a more nationalist tone. He allied with a faction of the ultra-nationalist Turks, MHP. Then in foreign policy, while kept his pro-democracy rhetoric and relative support for MB, he no longer did it aggressively. He finally accepted reality.

Erdogan realized that it is difficult if not impossible for a nation state to act as an empire. Its allies in the region were weak while its enemies were stronger than ever. He had to choose between being the president of Turkey or the leader of the MENA Muslim Democrats.

Although I am yet to make a final judgement for this is this still in the making, one can say with a great degree of certainty that Erdogan is happy to be the president of Turkey alone. The Milli Gorus rhetoric may continue but the policies are largely Kemalist.

Kurds may not be as oppressed as the 1990s or worse the 1920s, but Erdogan will no longer say in parliament “Kurdistan was used by Ottomans and the First Parliament”. He will also abandon the multi-ethnic confederation he once dreamed of.

Finally, Turkey’s policy in Syria is no longer ‘praying at the Ummayid mosque’. Turkey is now correcting a “mistake”. They are happy to get back to pre-2011. Erase PYD rule, force back all Syrian refugees out, and let Assad be in power.

This is a sad moment in Turkey’s history. The most popular leader since Ataturk who was different is failing himself and millions across MENA. He abandons a great vision for the small gains, the greatness of Ottomans to the narrow confines of Turkey.

It is even sadder when all these might not be enough to keep him in power. He may choose the ‘Old Turkey’ and end his ‘New Turkey’ dreams but the ‘Old Turkey’ does not like him. But even if he kept power, he will do so as a guardian of a system he spent his life opposing.

Erdogan changed everything except the system and the system seems to have changed him. When he is gone, or may be even before his going, the Old Turkey will come back full force. The 1990s Turkey is only one blink away. Sad for them. Sad for MENA. But the hope continues.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181906398902403074.html
 
Salaam

Continued. . . . .



Turkey which was built by destroying Ottoman caliphate was not just a country, it was also a mechanism to make sure another Ottoman style model does not arise. Kemalism as a state ideology was the means to carry out this mission.

Kemalism was built on 3 pillars: a- Reversing the multi-cultural-multi-ethnic Ottoman model by equating Turkish citizenship to being Turk. B-Imposing secularism to prevent pan-ummah thinking & C-neutrality in foreign policy except for protecting Turkey’s borders.

Kemalism was not only a cultural and ideological departure from past. It was also a psychological barrier from Middle East. Turkey was isolated from its ‘Muslim depth’ surrounding it. ‘Ummah’ was redefined to mean the Turkish nations near and far.

Kemalist Turkey was a peaceful touristic destination with an army that had to periodically intervene to restore ‘secular order’ and oppress Kurds to make sure ‘territorial integrity’ was maintained. Such a Turkey was an asset to NATO due to its geopolitical location.

Ataturk’s ‘Yurtta sulh cihanda’s sulh’ (Peace home and abroad) meant the assimilation of Kurds at home and dealing with an iron fist with any separatist movement while keeping largely neutral in Middle East’s crisis especially on issue such as Palestine.

The West had no problem with Turkey oppressing the Kurdish minority or the army’s frequent interventions. The only problem between Turkey-West/NATO was the Cyprus issue. But even that did not hurt the relations with Turkey beyond reparation.

The ‘Isolated Turkey’ was not only an asset to NATO but also the MENA dictatorships. They were afraid of Khomeini for exporting the Islamist revolution but Turkey’s democracy was not for export. None in Turkey had such an agenda. Everyone was happy with Antalya beaches.

But the relative democratic opening after CHP’s one party rule had allowed the growth of Milli Gorus, a centre right conservative movement with a mixture of nationalist and Islamic slogans. Milli Gorus proved to carry with it the seed of Turkey’s conflict with the West.

Milli Gorus was mostly in the sidelines. It was always a part of larger coalitions. It was also banned frequently and reappeared under different names. But then came Refah Partisi led by Milli Gorus historical leader Necmettin Erbakan. And what was feared, happened.

Refah’s star started to rise in the 1990s. Kemalism was still the state idoelogy: Kurds and conservatives oppressed. Refah came first in 1994 elections. Erbakan became prime minister of a coalition government while a young Erdogan became mayor of Istanbul.

Refah was the head of a shaky coalition of government. But Erbakan embraced an openly anti-Kemalist rhetoric. He called for a peaceful solution to the Kurdish issue based on Islam and called for an Islamic alliance. His first visits were to Iran, Libya and Saudi.

Erbakan’s increasingly Islamist rhetoric made him an easy target for the strong Turkish Kemalist state institutions. Turkey’s secular media started a campaign of vilification against him and he was accused of trying to restore ‘Shariah state’.

The media, judiciary and all state apparatus prepared for a soft coup. The state started a heavy handed crackdown on conservatives. And in February 1995, the military forced Erbakan to sign a memorandum which was basically his resignation. Erbakan was removed in a coup.

The 1990s Turkey was not a hell for conservative Turks only. It was a hell for Kurds too. Ban on language, cultural rights, Kurdish songs, Kurdish parties continued. Kuridsh MPs were jailed for taking oath in Kurdish. Kurdish singers had to leave country for singing Kurdish.

The mutual oppression against Kurds and conservative Turks had created a natural affinity between the two. Refah’s heirs like Fazilet and Saadet continued to to embrace ‘brotherhood in Islam’ as the solution for Kurdish issue. They always came first in the Kurdish areas.

Erdogan himself started his national political career in mid 1990s by embarking on a ‘hearing journey’ to the Kurdish provinces. He concluded that Kurds were facing oppression and he promised restoring cultural rights when Refah in power.

Erdogan was removed as Istanbul mayor and jailed for reading a poem which was deemed anti-Kemalist state. After his release and following his dispute with Erdogan, he decided to take on a different course and tone down ‘Islamist’ rhetoric.

There was a growing sense amongst conservative Turks from Milli Gorus background that the state apparatus, the army and the West will not accept them as long as they embraced Islamic rhetoric. They changed course and founded AK Parti.

During these years of state oppression against Kurds and conservatives, the Western support to Turkey was at its highest levels especially in its fight against PKK. Ocalan, PKK leader, was captured in a joint MIt-Mossad-CIA operation and returned to Turkey.

The newly founded AKParti embraced a democratic progressive rhetoric. Promised greater reforms and more democratic opening to join EU. Erdogan started his AK Parti journey by a trip to US and EU. AK Parti became the face of progress and hope for Turkey.

The economic recession of late 1990s was the opportunity which gave AK Parti power. The ban on Erdogan was removed. He became the prime minister after Gul. He started a series of reforms including removing the emergency state in the Kurdish provinces.

Erdogan’s progressive domestic progressive politics continued. But unlike Erbakan he took a different course in foreign policy. He visited Israel and avoided making any ‘Islamist’ remarks. He said that they have removed ‘their milli gorus shirts’.

Erdogan made the major Diyarbakir declaration in 2005 in which he admitted that there was a Kurdish issue in Turkey beyond the ‘PKK terror issue’. It followed a period of democratic & cultural opening. Between 2001-2007, AKParti was hailed in Western press as a success.

Then in 2007 AK Parti decided to nominate Abdullah Gul for presidency, a symbolic position but important. The secular opposition, judiciary and army joined forces. Amongst other reasons, they said a man with a hijabi wife can’t be in Ataturk’s place.

Secular opposition went to streets against Erdogan in what was called ‘Repbublic Rallies’. They were saying the secular state is in danger. Judiciary wanted to close the party and failed. Army’s intervention against AKP made Erdogan stronger and more popular.

Erdogan’s progressive polices home continued. But on foreign policy, he started to change tone. The 2008 Gaza war was a turning point. For the first time, Erdogan criticised Israel openly. The new foreign policy proved popular in Turkey & Muslim world.

Erdogan’s ‘one minute’ with Israeli president Shimon Perez was the moment the new Erdogan came into stage full force. Across the Muslim world, he became the progressives Muslim leader leading a successful economy and speaking up against oppression.

Progressivism home and anti-oppression foreign policy abroad proved electorally popular. This gave him the confidence to take on Kemalism in full force. He reversed anti-conservative and anti-Kurdish policies and also started a peace process with PKK.

Erdogan’s new foreign policy was alarming to Arab dictators who saw his popularity amongst their nations alarming. Israel was unhappy and so was the Western political establishment and strong power circles in the US. And then came the Arab Spring.

The Arab Spring was the moment when Erdogan decided to scrap Turkey’s Kemalist foreign policy altogether. Erdogan embraced the popular movements& leading Islamists. For a brief moment it looked liked Turkey is going to take lead of a new order. This alarmed many home & abroad

Meanwhile domestically, Erdogan’s peace process with PKK was facing strong opposition from the secular, nationalist opposition. But also from his Gulenist allies. He was strong but for first time since 2001 he was facing real opposition.

Erdogan invested heavily in the peace process with PKK. He put all his credit on line. He brought back Ocalan into Turkish public life. Ocalan and his cell in Imrali became a new power house. Peace process gave birth to a ceasefire which encouraged Erdogan even more.

But suddenly everything went bad for Erdogan. The Arab Spring and the peace process which he has invested in so heavily proved more difficult. While counter Arab Spring current gained momentum and MB failed, peace process at home was too slow.

PKK refused to listen to Ocalan’s call for disarmament while AKP was losing the narrative war to the ultra nationalists who were making huge gains taking away from AKP votes. Meanwhile, HDP under Salahaddin Demirtas became Erdogan’s main headache.

Erdogan was cornered. He was losing Turkish vote and Kurdish vote at the same rate. His Arab Spring policy had gained him new enemies such as Saudi and UAE. Meanwhile his attempts to gain more powers had given the lobbies/media the chance to portray him as authoritarian.

No other modern leader of Turkey or any other country faced what Turkish leadership did. But Erdogan has all these enemies without having made any real changes in the system. The army was still largely against him and the losing electorally was always a threat.

Erdogan was overwhelmed. He had no allies home and weak allies abroad. He was about to lose power in Turkey electorally while eyeing expansion abroad. He had an option to change the system Or embrace it. He did the latter.

Erdogan decided to ally with the nationalists. But more than that, he decided to adopt nationalism which was his only way for keeping power electorally. He then adopted the ‘there is no Kurdish issue but a PKK terror issue’ cliche which is the Kemalist talking point.

Slowly, Erdogan metamorphosed into Bahceli (at discourse level): strong religious nationalist sentiments which are mainly about the survival of the ‘Turkish state’ mixed with a rhetorical affinity with Muslim causes around the world.

This Erdogan is no threat to anyone outside Turkey. Unless circumstances change dramatically, Erdogan doesn’t have any intention to do what he did between 2010-2015: Peace process with Kurds or challenging Sykes-Picot borders/order.

But for many in the West, Erdogan is still the person with the Islamist expansion image. Moreover, things have changed domestically. The secular opposition has adopted a new rhetoric. AKP is facing splits. Erdogan can lose power electorally any moment.

Erdogan’s way out looks like more nationalism and less of it. Neuralising the threat of a Kurdish pro-PKK entity on its borders is something any Turkey’s leader will do. Such an entity represents existential danger to Turkey’s territorial integrity.

Erdogan is basically now spending his final moments in power to protect the territorial unity of Turkey’s Sykes-Picot borders and in that he has gained admiration and support from all Turks including his dire Kemalist enemies.

The end of the operation with success might give Erdogan the chance to stay in power until 2023. Its failure means his end before the elections. But in both situations, Erdogan as we knew it has ended.

Every country in enmity with Turkey today doesn’t oppose Turkey but Erdogan and that is because of his nationalist policies or today’s war against the Kurdish entity, theh do so because of his past and the Islamist spark left in him that might develop again!

PKK is lucky that it is fighting Erdogan and say not another figure like Ecevit because they would get zero sympathy. And Kurds are lucky because of not for the anti-Erdogan alliance, they would have been killed in silence. But both Erdogan and Kurds are losers in this fight.

There is a chance that Western opposition to Erdogan might lead to a no fly zone which could eventually turn into a self ruled entity but I doubt that the NATO/West will do that against Turkey for theh know Erdogan is going while their Old Turkey friend is coming back.

NATO and others including Erdogan’s enemies in Israel and UAE and their lobbies abroad have zero problem with Turkey going into Syria, ending Kurdish-led entity. Turkey is a great ally. But they aren’t happy with Erdogan’s Turkey doing so.

In short: The New Erdogan is now for the Old Turkey. But the Old Turkey and its allies home and abroad don’t accept him.

Solution? Kurds and Turks need new leaderships that go beyond Sykes-Picot mentality and do that at any cost.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1182604587766878208.html
 
I just hope Turkey becomes more pro Islam and more independent militarily and innovative like the early Ottomans.

The early Ottomans were producers. Not consumers.

They were entrepreneurs and great at making ships and therefore being independent.

The latter ottomans failed because they grew to become consumers. And because of that they no longer was as independent as before.

Worst being the fact that the population grew more europe - loving and wanted to be like Europe even if it meant destroying their own nation.

So. Who knows. Allah knows best.
 
Salaam

Another update.

Blurb

The families are said to have broken out as Turkish troops intensified their air and ground assault against Kurdish-led Forces in the area. At least nine people were reported killed when Turkish airstrikes hit a convoy of civilians and fighters.

A convoy which our International Editor Lindsey Hilsum had been travelling with earlier in the day. Both the British Prime Minister and the German Chancellor have phoned President Erdogan, urging him to halt the Turkish offensive immediately. President Trump used a tweet to renew his threat of sanctions on Turkey.


More comment.



It’s been painted by some as Turkey vs the Kurds. I don’t think this is helpful. The SDF are not representative of all Kurds. In fact I found Syrian Kurds that were opposed to the SDF and were glad to see them go.

I also spoke to FSA factions made up of Syrian Kurds fighting against the SDF. I interviewed a Syrian Kurdish commander opposed to the SDF

There was fear on the ground from the local Kurdish population but it wasn’t of the turkish military it was fear of some of the FSA. The FSA is not one body, some of the factions are a bunch of cowboys, others are thugs, but there are genuine people dedicated to the cause.

I found some villages empty, the locals had fled...some had returned after a while. There was signs of looting, carried out by some FSA members.

In one village young one FSA fighter showed me videos on his phone of him executing members of the SDF. It’s hard to say how widespread this was

The SDF are the Syrian affiliate of the PKK/YPG There’s no denying that. It’s clear for everyone to see. Here’s an American general giving the breakdown of how their change in name came about by US request


The Kurdish groups have been successful in having a media strategy that draws sympathy from western journos. The women fighters, the access granted to western media and the fight agaisnt isis

Other groups in Syria have been fighting the regime and isis but have not drawn the same sympathetic coverage. The SDF/YPG have appealed to certain secular liberal values, so are usually painted as the good guys.

Syria is messy. Turkey does not differentiate between isis and the YPG. In fact they see the pkk/YPG as a bigger enemy as they’ve carried out numerous terrorist attacks in Turkey.

As for isis prisoners. Of course they’re at risk of escaping. But we can’t just see all of them as guilty. They’re being held without trial. Some are family members, there’s been no due process. But of course there’s a massive risk of some isis members regrouping

This operation is all about Turkey’s interests and ultimately the US will side with its NATO ally rather than, in comparison, a smallish group in Syria. Not saying it’s right or wrong but it’s just reality.

Just to add, my camerman when I was in Syria is Turkish Kurd and my boss was also a Turkish Kurd, they helped me get an insight into the complexities

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1183464298850504706.html
 
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Its rediculous at its best to blame Turkey for not being like the Ottoman empire and invading Syria at the same time. If there was an Ottoman empire in place of Turkey today, they would have invaded Syria hundreds of times and let no breath taking terrorist over there.
 
anatolian said:
Its rediculous at its best to blame Turkey for not being like the Ottoman empire and invading Syria at the same time. If there was an Ottoman empire in place of Turkey today, they would have invaded Syria hundreds of times and let no breath taking terrorist over there.
Click to expand...

I am honestly disgusted at how America and its its allies so freely support PKK and attack Turkey for wanting to bring peace to Syria.

What do they expect? That Turkey will just quietly sit by while these kurdish terrorists PKK YPG whatever send rockets hitting turkish border towns?

America and Israel have no say in how Turkey does things. Now they are on a slur campaign against Turkey for daring to cleanse north east syria from Kurdish terrorists.

This is not a fight against Kurds, but terrorists. That would be like saying "fighting ISIS, and you are an racist because ISIL is arab" or whatever nonsense.

In any case. Turkey has no real allies. America? America wants to be able to Attack Turkey whenever they want, so no chance they'll go with anything that will strengthen Turkey.

Israel? Same. They dont want any Muslim States to be strong.

Turkey needs to become producers and independent militarily and domestically.
Even have nukes.

Turkey has lots of refugees and cant keep holding on to them, the solution is to make a peace corridor to then relocate them.

Turkey should not and will not let terrorists have a safe place to plan and plot attacks against Turkey.
 

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