This is what happens when amateurs are appointed to professional posts.
Published on Wednesday, July 26, 2006 by the Guardian / UK
At the Heart of the Lebanon Crisis Lie the Lethal Mistakes Of George Bush
Instead of pursuing a Middle East peace deal, the White House's big idea has been to bomb people into democracy
by Jonathan Freedland
It was meant to be over by now. This time last week Israeli military planners were demanding another 72 hours to finish the job: that's all they needed, they promised, to clear southern Lebanon of Hezbollah. Yet the enemy has proved stubborn. Despite two weeks of bombardment, Hezbollah's formidable arsenal remains in place. Yesterday they fired yet more rockets - 60 of them - deep into Israel, reaching the city of Haifa and killing a teenage girl in the Arab village of Maghar.
This persistence is causing the first rumblings of Israeli disquiet. Why are the Katyushas "still coming, and killing?" asks one Israeli columnist. Are the Israel Defence Forces losing their edge, asks another, wondering if "instead of an army that is small but smart, we are catching glimpses of an army that is big, rich, and dumb." The top brass deny they have been surprised by Hezbollah's strength. They expected nothing less, they say - not least because Iran has been supplying the movement with more than $100m worth of arms. Which would explain the serious hardware, including long-range missiles, at Hezbollah's disposal.
So far none of this has eroded the astonishingly high level of Israeli public support for the war. I spoke yesterday to a "refusenik", an Israeli soldier whose principles compelled him to spend a month in jail rather than serve in the West Bank or Gaza. Even he was clear: "We had no choice but to hit back." This is not about defending occupied territory, because Israel is not a genuine occupier in Lebanon. This is, he says, about defending the country from a proxy army of a state, Iran, that is committed to Israel's destruction.
Little has punctured Israelis' sense of self-belief. They see few of the TV pictures we see, showing Lebanese children, bloodstained and weeping; they have victims of their own to concentrate on. As for the rest of the world's condemnation, it doesn't cut much ice. Why should Israelis listen to Vladimir Putin when he tells them their response has been "disproportionate"? Was Russia's pounding of Grozny proportionate? As for complaints from Britain and Europe about the 390 civilians killed in Lebanon, those are a reminder of the more than 3,000 civilians killed in the 2001 onslaught against Afghanistan: how was that proportionate exactly? Kim Howells was right to be appalled by what he saw in Beirut. But he surely would have been just as shocked had he visited the Iraqi city of Falluja after the Americans had turned it to rubble.
Besides, not much of this criticism, including that from Howells, has got through at all. The message projected by most of the Israeli media is that the bit of the world that matters - the US - is behind them. The government certainly echoes that line, and it will have been emboldened by Condoleezza Rice's show of understanding yesterday.
Indeed, for prime minister Ehud Olmert the backing of the US is central to everything this war is about. The Tel Aviv University analyst Dr. Gary Sussman calls it a "war for the legitimacy of unilateralism." This approach, first pursued by Ariel Sharon and now Olmert's defining project, tells Israelis that it is OK to pull out from occupied territory - whether southern Lebanon in 2000 or Gaza in 2005 - because after withdrawal there will be a clear, recognized border, behind which Israel can defend itself more vigorously than ever. That is why, once Hezbollah had captured those two Israeli soldiers, Olmert had to hit back. If he had not, he would have vindicated the critics who brand unilateral withdrawal a glorified retreat, jeopardizing Israel's security. He had to prove that pulling out did not mean running away, that Israel could still defend itself. What's more, because it had moved back to the internationally recognized border, Israel would now enjoy international legitimacy. Washington has obligingly played its role, supplying the support that confirms Olmert's logic.
This message is not aimed solely at the Israeli people. It is also meant to restore the country's "deterrence," telling Hezbollah and the rest of the region that they cannot cross Israel's borders, or seize its personnel, with impunity (no matter how Israel itself behaves). Israel is especially keen to disprove the "cobweb theory," put about by Hezbollah: pull at one Israeli thread, such as its 18-year presence in Lebanon until 2000, and the rest will unravel. The current operation is designed to say that Israel does not do unravelling.
There is a last audience for this war. Olmert wants the Palestinians to see that if Israel withdraws from further territory, as he intends, it will not be a soft touch. On the contrary, as the world has seen, if Israel is so much as scratched it will hit back very hard. The prime minister wants this point seared into the minds of Hamas and Fatah so that they remember it come the day Israel withdraws from parts of the West Bank.
From his own point of view, Olmert had little alternative. If he had accepted the soldiers' kidnapping, and sought their return through diplomacy, most Israeli analysts are agreed that he would have been finished. He would have confirmed his own weakness, a civilian with no military record, and he would have proved the anti-unilateralists right. His own plan, to withdraw from more occupied territory, would be in shreds. As things stand, he should now have the credibility to move forward.
That's as close as we get to a crumb of comfort to be found in the rubble of this last fortnight. Yet it need not have been this way. Had one of the key players in the drama behaved differently, this entire mess could have been avoided.
I'm thinking of the United States. It's fashionable to blame the US for all the world's ills, but in this case the sins, both of omission and commission, of the Bush administration genuinely belong at the heart of the trouble.
Diplomacy has had a difficult task from the start, in part because the US is not seen as an honest broker, but as too closely aligned with Israel. Washington has long been pro-Israel, but under President Clinton and the first President Bush there was an effort to be seen as a plausible mediator. Not under George W. Far from keeping lines of communication open with Hezbollah's two key patrons - Syria and Iran - they have been cast into outer darkness, branded as spokes, or satellites, of the axis of evil. As a result there has been no mechanism to restrain Hezbollah. Now, when the US needs Syria's help, it may be too late. Damascus will extract a high price, no doubt demanding the right to re-enter, in some form, Lebanon. The White House can't grant that - not when it considers Syria's ejection from Lebanon in 2005 one of its few foreign-policy successes.
But the record of failure goes deeper than that. It began in the president's first week, when Bush decided he would not repeat what he perceived as his predecessor's mistake by allowing his presidency to be mired in the fruitless search for Israeli-Palestinian peace. Even though Clinton had got tantalizingly close, Bush decided to drop it. While Henry Kissinger once racked up 24,230 miles in just 34 days of shuttle diplomacy, Bush's envoys have been sparing in their visits to the region.
The result is that the core conflict has been allowed to fester. Had it been solved, or even if there had been a serious effort to solve it, the current crisis would have been unimaginable. Instead, Bush's animating idea has been that the peoples of the Middle East can be bombed into democracy and terrorized into moderation. It has proved one of the great lethal mistakes of his abominable presidency - and the peoples of Israel and Lebanon are paying the price.
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
whatever it is, i do believe that this conflicts can only be resolved through negotiations. when are those weirdos in power would realize that hizbullah is but a name. hypothetically, u might killed all of those in hizbullah today only to realize that there will always others who will be more than willing to replace them immediately. when will this viscious cycle stops? violence will only begets violence.....
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
If I remember correctly, I believe that President Bush was working quite a bit with Abbas after Arafat died. However, it became pretty clear to everyone involved that Abbas didn't have the power to enforce a peace deal with Israel while Hamas was still engaging in terrorist attacks. Then Hamas was elected, and that pretty much ended any international hope for a peace deal.
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
format_quote Originally Posted by Keltoi
If I remember correctly, I believe that President Bush was working quite a bit with Abbas after Arafat died. However, it became pretty clear to everyone involved that Abbas didn't have the power to enforce a peace deal with Israel while Hamas was still engaging in terrorist attacks. Then Hamas was elected, and that pretty much ended any international hope for a peace deal.
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
format_quote Originally Posted by searchingsoul
And why is the US at fault? Come on people the ME needs to take responsibility for their own problems.
Did you read that article? It told you exactly why the US is at fault. The extremists on both sides would not be in charge if bu$h had not decimated the State Department of its professionals. He was also persuing the PNAC agenda in Iraq.
Without a strong America bringing the parties to negotiations like all the other administrations have done, you get what we see now; on the brink of all-out war there.
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
format_quote Originally Posted by catmando
Did you read that article? It told you exactly why the US is at fault. The extremists on both sides would not be in charge if bu$h had not decimated the State Department of its professionals. He was also persuing the PNAC agenda in Iraq.
Without a strong America bringing the parties to negotiations like all the other administrations have done, you get what we see now; on the brink of all-out war there.
The people voted in these extremists. It is not our job to play babysitter.
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
format_quote Originally Posted by catmando
Did you read that article? It told you exactly why the US is at fault. The extremists on both sides would not be in charge if bu$h had not decimated the State Department of its professionals. He was also persuing the PNAC agenda in Iraq.
Without a strong America bringing the parties to negotiations like all the other administrations have done, you get what we see now; on the brink of all-out war there.
What I read was that Bush doesn't spend as much time in peace talks with ME countries (and why is this the responsibility of the USA government?). It also mentioned that the USA government is more aligned with Israel. Whether or not a love affair with Israel is a good thing, I still fail to see how such an alliance can be used an excuse for the crisis in the ME.
Fear makes strangers of people who would be friends.
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
format_quote Originally Posted by searchingsoul
And why is the US at fault? Come on people the ME needs to take responsibility for their own problems.
The US is at fault because the US is responsible for every thing that goes wrong. The ME is not responsible for any ot the problems there. There are two reasons for that. 1) Muslims are never responsible for any proble. 2) As above, the US is responsible for every thing that goes wrong.
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
format_quote Originally Posted by wilberhum
The US is at fault because the US is responsible for every thing that goes wrong. The ME is not responsible for any ot the problems there. There are two reasons for that. 1) Muslims are never responsible for any proble. 2) As above, the US is responsible for every thing that goes wrong.
I think I understand now.
Fear makes strangers of people who would be friends.
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
Woops, maybe I’m wrong.
http://www.ict.org.il/Articles/Hiz_letter.htm
Our primary assumption in our fight against Israel states that the Zionist entity is aggressive from its inception, and built on lands wrested from their owners, at the expense of the rights of the Muslim people. Therefore our struggle will end only when this entity is obliterated. We recognize no treaty with it, no cease fire, and no peace agreements, whether separate or consolidated.
If Hezbollah’s policy is to”recognize no treaty with it, no cease fire, and no peace agreements”, there can be no Diplomacy.
Whether Israel is right or wrong, it seams they have a choice, fight or die. Do you rationally expect them to choose the latter?
Re: Lack of diplomacy from america a big part of ME crisis
how is the u.s. to blame?
they refuse to demand a cease fire as lebanon is being systematically destroyed.
they arm israel and early on in the israeli attack on lebanon, it was announced that the u.s. is shipping some kind of more bombs to israel.
as i said elsewhere there are so good guys here.
israel's purpose - to turn the lebanese people against hezbollah is a dismal failure. this invasion has so far increased the support for hezbollah among the lebanese, not decreased it.
both sides made serious mistakes in judgement. the lebanese are paying.
each man thinks of his own fleas as gazelles
question authority
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