Is Iran Doomed?

[Namir Wahid]

Some have described Iran’s response to Israel’s unprovoked and illegal attack as strong and forceful, but it may be short-lived.

There was a time when Hezbollah seemed like a strong force, one that could not only mitigate Israel’s genocide in Gaza by redirecting Israeli forces to the north, but one that could go toe-to-toe with the IDF if needed. But, Hezbollah is now a shell of what it used to be. Its leader was assassinated, its supply lines were diminished, and it suffered a disgusting terrorist attack by Israel vis-a-vis the pager explosions.

It’s the latter point that needs extra attention. We have to give credit where credit is due. As demonic as Israel’s plans are, Israel is meticulous and patient in carrying them out. Israel concocted this terrorist attack a decade prior to executing it. That’s dedication.

Likewise, the drone attacks and car explosions in Iran are being performed by nefarious forces within. Iran, like most countries in the world, is compromised. While we have plenty of historical examples to reference such as the Lavon Affair, the USS Liberty false flag attempt, and the Jonathan Pollard incident, we have no idea where Israel has spies and terrorists embedded, nor how many. We have no idea how many of our devices are infected with Israeli spyware, or worse.

While the rest of us try to work within the frameworks of international law and moral standards, Israel has no moral limits. There is no bottom in Israel’s well of depravity. Every time we think it couldn’t get any worse, Israel surprises us. I fear what evil Israel has planned for the region. Perhaps it’s something our minds can’t even conceive.

 

[Marwan-Maroc]

I hope Iran destroys them.

But whatever happens, God decides the outcome of wars.

God is the Most Great.

 

[I<3Bush]

Some have described Iran’s response to Israel’s unprovoked and illegal attack as strong and forceful, but it may be short-lived.

There was a time when Hezbollah seemed like a strong force, one that could not only mitigate Israel’s genocide in Gaza by redirecting Israeli forces to the north, but one that could go toe-to-toe with the IDF if needed. But, Hezbollah is now a shell of what it used to be. Its leader was assassinated, its supply lines were diminished, and it suffered a disgusting terrorist attack by Israel vis-a-vis the pager explosions.

It’s the latter point that needs extra attention. We have to give credit where credit is due. As demonic as Israel’s plans are, Israel is meticulous and patient in carrying them out. Israel concocted this terrorist attack a decade prior to executing it. That’s dedication.

Likewise, the drone attacks and car explosions in Iran are being performed by nefarious forces within. Iran, like most countries in the world, is compromised. While we have plenty of historical examples to reference such as the Lavon Affair, the USS Liberty false flag attempt, and the Jonathan Pollard incident, we have no idea where Israel has spies and terrorists embedded, nor how many. We have no idea how many of our devices are infected with Israeli spyware, or worse.

While the rest of us try to work within the frameworks of international law and moral standards, Israel has no moral limits. There is no bottom in Israel’s well of depravity. Every time we think it couldn’t get any worse, Israel surprises us. I fear what evil Israel has planned for the region. Perhaps it’s something our minds can’t even conceive.

My personal opinion is that yes, it is doomed given all the current circumstances. Iran quickly recovered from the cyber attack that left it's defenses offline, retaliated with strong force, got the upper hand of the situation, and suddenly overnight agrees to a ceasefire that the enemy put forth? On top of that, while Iranians are celebrating "victory" in the streets and on social media, israel is not only rearming itself, but they are continually bombing Gaza and Lebanon WHILE openly threatening Iran of another attack. israel is clearly plotting it's next attack and be certain that they have learned from their mistakes.

The problem with Iran is that they are playing by the rules set forth by the enemy. They are allowing the enemy to control the narrative and letting them dictate how this war plays out. I mean, the prophecies about the end of times will have to happen one way or another, so I suppose it's only a matter of time before we see the entire region collapse.

 

[سيف الله]

Salaam

Hmmm the long and short of it is no, Zios along with their western patrons main goal was to induce regime change. They were hoping to install the Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi to replace Khamenei

Didn't happen but Iran took some serious hits, the conflict isn't over.

Here's some background.

Blurb

Since 13 June, the long-running stand-off between Iran and Israel has escalated to sustained conventional conflict, with a sustained Israeli air campaign against targets within Iran itself, while Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel.It was a complicated military scenario even before the U.S. intervened directly against 3 Iranian nuclear facilities.Today,

I try and parse some of what we've seen so far, and what military observations and lessons we might (cautiously) draw at this early stage.

Blurb

The Kinetic phase of Israel and Iran's recent war ended almost as suddenly as it began. US intervention was followed with a call for a ceasefire, a demonstrative missile attack by Iran, and then (after some very emphatic social media diplomacy) a ceasefire. In this episode I want to take stock of what we've learned over the last week and the status of Iran's remaining nuclear infrastructure.

What I also want to do though is focus on some observations not about the nuclear side of this war, but the impacts of the conventional one.

Iran's model of deterrence clearly failed - and in this episode I ask whether consistent under-investment in the regular military and its Air and Air-Defence at the expense of the IRGC and its Ballistic Missiles and proxies mean that Tehran helped hand the Israelis rapid air superiority, and how that may shape the strategic balance and any negotiations in the days and weeks to come.

More comment and analysis.

Iran’s Deep Bench​

Given the proclivity of both the USA and Israel to wage war through assassination and regime change, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that their enemies are now anticipating decapitation strikes, which was the section of this interview with a former Iranian general that caught my attention.

There’s the issue of the leadership vacuum the Zionist entity sought to create by assassinating leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, followed by subsequent operations. But what we witnessed instead was the strength of our armed forces: leadership positions were filled within just three to four hours, and the command structure was swiftly and efficiently reorganized. What did the people witness afterward? How do you assess the Zionist entity’s belief that creating a leadership vacuum would weaken you?

Mohsen Rezaei: I believe Israel made a grave military miscalculation. They assumed Iran was similar to Hezbollah, even though they themselves have failed to dismantle Hezbollah. They should have learned from that experience. Look at the leadership figures that have emerged within our armed forces. Major General Pakpour, for example, is an exceptionally strong field commander—courageous, with a remarkable operational vision.

Amir Hatami, who joined from the regular army, is a brave and seasoned officer. The same goes for Mr. Mousavi in the aerospace sector. And also for Mr. Mousavi who succeeded the martyred General Bagheri in the General Staff—he is a dedicated man, aligned with the resistance movement.

Though they come from the regular army, there is full coordination between them and the Revolutionary Guards. What the enemy did failed to create any structural void within the armed forces. In fact, it could be said that certain aspects have grown more effective, as recent events have shown. That’s one point.

Secondly, we now have no fewer than ten additional layers of trained commanders and officers—some from the generation that fought in the war, and others who gained valuable field experience in later years, particularly in the fight against ISIS. Many of our forces who fought in Iraq and Syria against ISIS have, through those field experiences, become akin to senior war commanders like Hussein Kharrazi and Ahmad Kazemi—young, capable leaders fully prepared to command the armed forces.

It was a profound error on the part of the Israeli military not to recognize the deep hierarchical structure and the robust bench of ready leadership within our ranks. This internal architecture and the organizational evolution of the armed forces entirely compensated for any potential gaps. In my view, this challenge has already been overcome. And in the near future, our dear people will see that those who have stepped into the shoes of our fallen leaders will ensure that no imbalance or vacuum arises in the management of the armed forces.

The high command—led by His Eminence, the Commander—is fully acquainted with each of these leaders. They have been selected with care and discernment. I am absolutely confident that there will be no void in leadership.

A very common mistake often seen throughout military history is projection, or analyzing the enemy as if it were a mirror image of one’s own forces. Both Israel and the USA have very thin strategic and command benches, which is why they assume that taking out the top layer or two of enemy leadership will lead to complete confusion and disarray.

Which, to be fair, would likely happen in the case of either country suffering the loss of its leadership. But it’s clear that Iran and China are both very well prepared in an institutional sense for rapid leadership transitions that will avoid the confusion and military paralysis that are the primary objective of decapitation strikes. Russia, perhaps not so much, which may account for the monomaniacal focus on President Putin’s well-being, although my suspicion is that his successor will be less patient with the West and more hardline.

Regime change works when you’ve got your candidate all ready and in position to assume command and negotiate a surrender. But it can’t when you don’t have a candidate, and worse, the enemy is already set up to make a series of orderly transitions if necessary.

Iran's Deep Bench - Vox Popoli

Given the proclivity of both the USA and Israel to wage war through assassination and regime change, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that their enemies are now anticipating decapitation strikes, which was the section of this interview with a former Iranian general that caught my attention...

voxday.net