i think it's pretty unlikely that president musharraf will re-instate the chief justice along with the other judges that he sacked - after all, they were the biggest challenge to his continuiing to rule in uniform. he may even end the "emergency" as soon as his new court gives him the approval.
as for bhutto, i think recycling corrupt leaders is pretty pathetic, but i suspect the deal between her and the general is still on, behind the scenes.
the impression i get is that to the average pakistani, it matters little because his life is unlikely to improve either way.
some 30,000 troops have been withdrawn from the indian border for use....?
in the north it looks like there is serious danger of some areas breaking off - already in several towns the pakistani flag has come down and the talibaan flag (?) has gone up.
here is an editorial on this subject:
Editorial: The challenge of Swat
Warlord Fazlullah has taken another town in Swat, and the local police have surrendered in routine, its personnel promising never to fight against him again. After Matta and Khawazakhela, Madian has fallen, and Fazlullah’s FM radio is blaring news of yet another victory against the state of Pakistan. Fazlullah says all he wants is Shariat, but the real truth is there for everyone to see. He has annexed territory from the state of Pakistan and will set up a government there on the pattern that Baitullah Mehsud has established in South Waziristan.
The composition of the so-called Taliban fighting as Fazlullah’s troops in Swat tells us who is driving the campaign for Shariat. Depressed, and with their morale down, the inhabitants of Swat report that most of the militants speak a dialect different from theirs. Some have identified them as belonging to South Waziristan. Yet there are some among the outsiders who don’t speak at all and keep their faces covered under masks; they are supposed to be the “foreigners” sent in by Baitullah Mehsud as help from Al Qaeda. There is no longer any doubt about whom the warlord of South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud, is working for. The presence of foreigners in Swat tells us the story that we are not willing to acknowledge.
If Swat is going to follow the model of South Waziristan, then let us take a look at the kind of government Baitullah has set up there. From a population not used to paying their bills for state utilities, and used to no taxation system, Baitullah has extracted taxes with which he can run his mini-state. What went under the name of smuggling is now legalised because everyone pays his taxes. With tax on trade of all sorts and the vehicle “token system”, the warlord has enough revenue to finance his 30,000 strong army and even send it into all parts of the Tribal Areas to help other Taliban elements. He also has a contingent of suicide-bombers whose outreach now includes the entire length and breadth of Pakistan. Salaries paid to the ranks and officers range from Rs 10,000 to Rs 25,000 per month.
The case of Fazlullah, it is said, was spoiled by the MMA government in the NWFP. Since Swat fell in the provincially administered tribal area, any military action there had to be “requisitioned” by Peshawar, which refrained from doing so. When it called in the paramilitaries it put conditions on their action that reduced the deployment to a show of force rather than an application of force. But when this force was despatched and attacked by suicide-bombers, the jirgas were made to actually demand the ouster of the state troops. It is only after the exit of the MMA government that the nation has found out that the “real” jirga of Swat actually wanted the government to act with vigour and determination. The caretaker government in Peshawar is now taking the right course but the situation in Swat is a much bigger challenge than Islamabad realises.
The war in the Tribal Areas could actually be the battle for Pakistan itself. It could be a battle against the creation of an Al Qaeda state within Pakistan. Having failed to create one in Somalia, Al Qaeda is now seeking to finally possess the territory it has been holding since 2001 when its hordes entered Pakistan to touch base with the warriors it had trained in the camps of Afghanistan. Already, terrorists planning to attack places in Europe are being trained in South Waziristan. The group of youths arrested by Germany recently with plans to attack American troops stationed there have revealed that they had travelled to Pakistan for training. In the case of Somalia, an invasion was staged from Ethiopia to prevent Al Qaeda to set up its base there. Therefore the same kind of situation could be created here if Islamabad does not taker resolute action.
The solution doesn’t lie in imposing an Emergency and taking away people’s rights. In fact the state of Emergency is going to be the biggest hurdle in tackling the Al Qaeda challenge. There is no doubt that this is the job for the Pakistan army, but if the government is faced with near-insurgency in the rest of the country with people ranged behind their political parties to oppose President General Musharraf, the war against Al Qaeda is all but lost. Those who are now ready to come out on the streets to fight for their rights will hardly be in a mood to even allow the idea of war against Al Qaeda to cross their minds. In fact, given the present situation, Al Qaeda is one of the many elements wanting the Musharraf establishment to go. That is why it is high time to announce elections in January 2008 and hand over the government to agreed caretakers who can let the army take the needed action against Al Qaeda.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\11\08\story_8-11-2007_pg3_1
The puppet Afghan Govt can't pose any real threat to Pakistan.
