Surely even the strongest advocate has to accept that unguided evolution is slightly far fetched?
Nowhere near as 'far fetched' as the existence of something to 'guide' it; something infinitely more complex that mysteriously just popped into existence or has somehow always existed. In terms of the numbers, God doesn't solve anything; something supposedly improbable is just replaced by something even more improbable.
But let's look at numbers again. There are something like 400 billion stars in our galaxy alone; that's something like 75 for each man, woman and child alive on earth. And there are estimated to be around 80 to 125 billion galaxies in the universe. We are into the realms of total guesswork, of course, but let's assume one in ten of those stars has a planet with the potential to support life of some sort, and that in one in ten of those the simplest type of life gets started at some point in the planet's history. Let us further assume, as you seem to concede, that the evolutionary mechanism does indeed exist. It therefore has something like 400 billion billion chances over the course of 13 billion years or so to come up with a species intelligent enough to be theorizing about how they came into existence. I'm not seeing any 'ludicrously low' numbers. They are in terms of one
particular planet, but in the context of our own that is totally meaningless; it's like asking a lottery winner what the chances are that they
have won the lottery. Those odds are of course, 1:1.
What puzzles me is why, in debates like this, so many theists focus on a rejection of evolution in the face of all the evidence (of which there is truly a vast quantity). The 'case for God' is much stronger IMHO, if still far from convincing, when put in terms of 'anthropic fine-tuning' of physical constants, yet those arguments (which have considerably more support from
real scientists of theistic persuasion) are ignored. I guess that's the power of popular culture.
What also puzzles me is why the idea of an evolutionary process designed
by God is dismissed by so many who believe there is a God. Surely the design of a
process that, once started, produces exactly what is required with further intervention is much more what one would expect of God than either some flawed version of evolution that needs constant 'tinkering' in the form of ID, or continuous 'creation' over the years to add or remove a species here or there? It makes no sense to reject the most elegant solution.