Oh Syria the victory is coming

Salaam

Another update

Assad is back for good in Syria - and with Trump’s blessing

A US-Russia peace plan has huge implications for the Middle East

Amid the confusion and the almost deafening cries of treachery and collusion over Donald Trump’s relations with Russia, few noticed the most tangible outcome of this week’s Helsinki summit. In the lead-up to his face-to-face talk with Vladimir Putin, senior US and Russian diplomats — in close coordination with leaders from mutual ally Israel — brokered a deal among all the warring parties (bar the Islamist terrorists) finally to end the devastating seven-year Syrian civil war. As is often the case with Trump, the hype tends to drown out the message but it was there for anyone paying close enough attention. The US, Russians and Israelis have agreed on a solution to Syria. His name is Bashar al-Assad.

The summit agreed on the need for a permanent ceasefire between Syria and Israel (the two countries have been in a state of war since 1948) and the Syrian government will offer guarantees regarding the Jewish state’s security. With Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said to be behind Israel, and Turkey scrambling to fall into line behind Russia, it’s a done deal. Assad, in short, is here to stay — and the West must now begin the process of coming to terms with the fact that it backed the losing side in the Syrian civil war.

Given America was close to going to war against Assad not so long ago, it’s quite a shift — and one that has been some time in preparation. Last month, Trump quietly abandoned the US-backed Islamist rebels in south-western Syria. This was the birthplace of an uprising against Assad that began as a peaceful student protest but quickly drew in every major regional player, as well as key Nato members and Russia. Most of the rebels surrendered, and have been given safe passage to their last redoubt in the north. Those who remain now await what promises to be a final, devastating onslaught from the Syrian army and their allies in the Russian Air Force. And yes, we should expect the two to act in tandem: Syria is now, to all intents and purposes, a Russian protectorate.

The Syrian rebels who spent so long begging for American help and arms can now expect to be entirely abandoned. As part of the de-escalation process, Trump is said to be eager to withdraw the 2,000 or so US special forces still stationed in Syria. This way he could (rightly) claim to be honouring his campaign pledge to keep US soldiers out of interminable foreign conflicts whenever possible, while — in a ‘Mission Accomplished’ photo op — announcing the defeat of Islamic State in Syria. And all in time for US midterm elections in November.

None of this would have been possible without the Israelis’ consent. Days before the Helsinki summit, Benjamin Netanyahu dropped his own diplomatic bombshell following yet another meeting with Putin in Moscow (they have met at least nine times during the past 18 months). Israel, he said, would have no problem working with an Assad regime in Syria in the future. This is despite his repeated calls for regime change, and the Israeli air force bombing military targets inside the country dozens of times over the past few years.

So why is Bibi now keen on Assad? Because his main concern is routing the Iranian forces who have been settling down in Syria — often with Russian connivance. Israel also wants fighters from Hezbollah to return to Lebanon, and for Syria’s own forces to stay away from the border areas with Israel. If Russia would agree to this, Israel would be content to accept that Syria is under Russian management — and that the Kremlin has its own naval base on the Mediterranean.

Putin seems to have convinced Netanyahu that he would do everything in his power to see off the Iranians, and keep everyone far from the Israeli border. Given the almighty mess inside Syria, that is as much as Israel should reasonably expect of Putin in the short term. And what do the Iranians get in return? In what appears to be compensation for selling them out, Putin announced $50 billion in direct Russian investment in Iran’s oil and gas sectors — up from precisely nada the day before. Hezbollah can now retreat to southern Lebanon and Iran can even save face by saying its revolutionary guard has seen off Assad’s enemies.

Israel seems rather impatient for this new deal to begin, and has been bombing the bejesus out of Hezbollah and Iranian regime targets in Syria — even as the summit was convening. No one in Moscow has said anything significant about them publicly. And as a further concession, Putin has shelved plans to sell Assad Russia’s formidable S-400 air-defence systems, which would have been used to successfully repel further Israeli strikes. Trump now has a new red line: getting Iran out of Syria. ‘I made clear we will not allow Iran to benefit from our successful campaign against Isis,’ he said in Helsinki.

And as for Assad? The man Trump was calling a ‘monster’ as recently as April? The President is now willing to look the other way. Trump’s adviser John Bolton said that Assad’s continued rule in Syria is no longer a ‘strategic issue’ for the US. As comebacks go, this is rather extraordinary. Assad has gone from being the focus of western ire —with the House of Commons even taking a vote on whether to bomb his army — to being there for good.

As one seasoned Middle Eastern observer has drily noted, the West and its allies threw everything at him — but to no avail. Assad is now the first Arab leader to survive an attempt at regime change coordinated by the West, Gulf Arabs and Israel since Egyptian strongman Gamal Abdul Nasser emerged unscathed from the Suez debacle back in 1956. Even his alleged use of chemical weapons — punished by Trump himself in a missile strike three months ago — has not derailed his campaign.

The impotence of Assad’s enemies was almost comically illustrated when last week Syria was given the rotating presidency of the UN-backed Conference on Disarmament. Quite something for a leader judged by the UN to have used chemical weapons as a routine weapon of war.

Far more important for Assad is that, in the eyes of most of the Syrian people, he is a hero — and not least for having saved their bacon by wiping out Islamic State. An annual survey of Arab public opinion published last week revealed that the US (84 per cent) and Israel (90 per cent) are still perceived by Arabs as the greatest threats to regional security, ahead of Syrian allies Iran and Russia. More to the point, according to the same survey an overwhelming majority of Arabs (81 per cent) were also found to view US foreign policy towards Syria negatively.

No one is likely to congratulate Trump for having skilfully navigated the Syrian minefield. But his decision to leave Syria’s fate to the Syrians (and their new friends in Russia) is the bravest and most logical decision by a US president when it comes to the Middle East since Eisenhower ordered Britain, France and Israel to withdraw from Suez. His comments at the Helsinki press conference underlined how little interest he has in the conflict: he sees it as someone else’s war. And if American withdrawal means handing Russia a large sphere of influence in the Middle East, another Mediterranean asset to go along with Ukraine, then so be it.

We had best get used to this American disinterest. Once, Washington policed the Middle East because it thought it would always depend on the region for its energy. Now America will soon be energy self-sufficient — and the expectation of this is visibly shaping its foreign policy. Last year the US produced 90 per cent of its domestic energy needs. So why should the US continue to spend blood and treasure keeping peace in the Middle East? Fracking means it can now finally leave, as long as the Saudis remain willing to help control oil prices.

Under Trump, Americans can now envisage a time when their country isn’t directly involved in a military conflict in the combustible Arab world — with all sides desperate to end the disastrous Saudi-led war on Yemen, and US troops playing an ever more marginal role in Iraq — for the first time in living memory. While it would be naive to hope that the terror threat in the West has disappeared, it is true to say that Islamic State is now effectively defeated and al-Qaeda is a shadow of its former self. Thankfully, even war against Iran remains a distant neocon fantasy, with Trump opting instead for economic sanctions as a way of bringing about regime change in Tehran. (It won’t work, but that’s another story.) He also achieved almost overnight what many had thought impossible: getting the Saudis to abandon their hateful Wahhabi ideology and to stop funding terror abroad.

The result of the Helsinki summit Syrian peace initiative that Trump pulled out of his hat, then, promises to be a win-win for everyone other than the terrorists over there and the warmongers in our midst. Russia gets a proxy in Syria and keeps its warm-water naval port on the Mediterranean coast, as a reward for its brilliant military gamble and massive financial investment in saving Assad. The US gets out of the quagmire. The Gulf Arabs’ paranoia about Iranian expansionism is less acute. Israel gets rid of the threat on its border posed by Iran and Hezbollah. And even the latter can console themselves with the knowledge that their sacrifices prevented a genocide against their fellow shia.

And the West? Well, the West is proving itself to be a bit of an irrelevance. But bearing in mind how much death and destruction our reckless military interventions have caused in the region over the past few decades — to those on the receiving end, most obviously, but to us too, in the form of our soldiers’ deaths and the blowback from Islamist terrorism and the migrant crisis — that is perhaps the best outcome of all. Putin is filling the vacuum, but only the most unhinged anti-Putin fanatic believes that Russia has plans to invade Europe.

And come to think of it, the Putin–haters should be happiest of all. Having to deal with the permanent headache that is trying to resolve the Arab world’s intractable conflicts is something one really should wish on one’s worst enemy.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/assad-is-back-for-good-in-syria-and-with-trumps-blessing/

format_quote Originally Posted by Abz2000

@urkahnkhan

You may have gotten a wrong estimate of the One for Whom i actually work - i am openly telling you to be very careful unless you want to suffer the just consequences of your insolence.
This is the work of Allah which you are striving against and the casualties you are careless of can justify a massive response against you and yours.
Do not stray too far beyond your limits.

Also do not for a second falsely assume that Allah is unaware of precisely who and what you are - despite the fact that you hide behind a cloak of hypocrisy and falsehood.

The warning is genuine, calm, open, and sincere.


لُعِنَ الَّذِينَ كَفَرُوا مِن بَنِي إِسْرَائِيلَ عَلَىٰ لِسَانِ دَاوُودَ وَعِيسَى ابْنِ مَرْيَمَ ذَٰلِكَ بِمَا عَصَوا وَّكَانُوا يَعْتَدُونَ

M. M. Pickthall
Those of the Children of Israel who went astray were cursed by the tongue of David, and of Jesus, son of Mary. That was because they rebelled and used to transgress.

Yusuf Ali (Saudi Rev. 1985)
Curses were pronounced on those among the Children of Israel who rejected Faith, by the tongue of David and of Jesus the son of Mary: because they disobeyed and persisted in excesses.

Quran, Chapter 5, Verse 78

Are you telling me that Salafi brothers like Abduallah Muhaysin and the likes of Bilal Abdulkarim etc etc are not in servitude to Allah and all the other salafi brothers who arrived to join them.

What has happened to people is genuinely sad when someone confronts me on this. What has even happened to the forum. This is absolutely madness. You are speaking about guys who have left their richness, houses, wives and kids to persuade the mercy of Allah by doing the work in. There only hope is to bring back Islam and it's not an easy task but to come here and say otherwise deserve instant ban

format_quote Originally Posted by Junon

Salaam

Another update, may Allah reward him for his tireless efforts.

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You made me cry!

Salaam

Another viewpoint of what the Syrian conflict was all about.

Blurb

In this edition of Probable Cause Sibel Edmonds breaks down the fog of war and exposes the information warfare campaigns being waged by all sides, in light of the recent military strikes against Syria for their alleged use of chemical weapons. Edmonds also explains what sets Newsbud apart from the rest as she examines the big picture.

Salaam

Another update.

Bilal is suing the US government

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Curse of Isis

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Some good news

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Salaam

Another update. He has a point, why would Israel and western powers go to such lengths to get these people out? Compare and contrast with the drone assassination attempts on Bilal Kareem and the harassment other humanitarians.

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White Helmet is Seeking Refuge



Time Of Israel reports this morning that overnight Israel transported 800 White Helmet workers and their families from southwest Syria to Jordan. The IDF says it acted at the request of the United States and European countries.

The Jordanian government, which has in recent years consistently refused to accept Syrian refugees, said they had made an exception in this case as the United Kingdom, Canada and Germany had agreed to take in the White Helmet rescuers and their families.

Those amongst us who aren’t followers of the various Guardians of Judea outlets have been suspicious of the White Helmet’s humanitarian agenda for a while.

Whitney Webb wrote in July 2017 that “over the past two years, enlightening information has been revealed that thoroughly and unequivocally debunks the ‘humanitarianism’ of the White Helmets in Syria, sometimes referred to as the Syrian Civil Defense.”

The western media has offered enthusiastic support for the White Helmets and the media has somehow failed to report on “the group’s ties to terrorist groups like al-Qaeda, their doctoring of footage, their role in executing civilians and their use of children – both dead and alive – as props for producing pro-intervention propaganda. Also absent from the news is how the White Helmets have received over $123 million from 2013 to 2016 from the U.S. and UK governments, as well as Western NGOs and Gulf state monarchies.”

Webb also reported on the White Helmets’ “shady ties to known terrorist organizations like Syria’s al-Qaeda branch Al-Nusra Front.”

In recent months we have been asked to accept that the so-called ‘gas attack’ in Duoma was the ‘event’ that led to an orchestrated American, British and French missile assault on Syrian government facilities. Reports of the ‘gas attack’ were based on a video propagated by the White Helmets. But here is Dr Rahaibani’s account of the Douma incident, brought to us by Robert Fisk, probably one of the few reliable journalists left among the British press.

“I was with my family in the basement of my home three hundred metres from here on the night but all the doctors know what happened. There was a lot of shelling [by government forces] and aircraft were always over Douma at night – but on this night, there was wind and huge dust clouds began to come into the basements and cellars where people lived. People began to arrive here suffering from hypoxia, oxygen loss. Then someone at the door, a “White Helmet”, shouted “Gas!”, and a panic began. People started throwing water over each other. Yes, the video was filmed here, it is genuine, but what you see are people suffering from hypoxia – not gas poisoning.”

Today’s news from Israeli suggests that the West has supported the White Helmets all along, and so has given refuge to its interventionist allies.

Supporters of the Syrian government have accused the White Helmets of being politically affiliated with the rebel groups. Russia and the Syrian government have repeatedly accused them of staging chemical attacks in opposition areas for propaganda purposes as shown in the video above.

In its defence, the White Helmets, founded in 2013, regards itself as a genuine humanitarian body that rescues the wounded in the aftermath of air strikes, shelling or blasts in rebel-held territory. The White Helmets have rescued thousands of civilians trapped under rubble or caught up in the fighting in battered opposition-held zones in the various fronts of Syria’s conflict.

I have no doubt that many of the White Helmet workers are genuine humanitarians. But if the White Helmets are solely rescue workers, I wonder why hundreds of them are seeking to escape Syria and why Israel, the USA and Britain are instrumental in providing refuge.

http://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/2018/7/23/white-helmet-is-seeking-refuge

Salaam

More analysis.

Syria – 7 Years On

The Syrian government and its Russian-Iranian allies have turned the tide on the rebels that rose up as part of the Arab Spring in 2011. The rebels have not helped themselves by being consumed by infighting. Western powers and their surrogate states like Turkey, Saudi and Iran have facilitated the demise of the popular revolution against Assad as they consider him to be a better option than a potential popular Islamic alternative.

No doubt the rebels have tried hard and the civilian population has suffered immeasurable pain. Hundreds of thousands have died and millions have been injured. Millions have been displaced, finding themselves as refugees either in their own land or across the world. Women and children have been horrifically abused and endured traumas such as rape, torture, trafficking and exploitation.

There has not emerged from this revolution a consistent message or unified front that could face off against the tyrant. Whilst initially there were dramatic gains against the dictator these have been reversed as the global colonial powers settled upon providing him with either direct or indirect backing. Russia, Iran and groups like Hezbollah are the most visible and direct support to Assad but not the only ones. America and its allies like Turkey and Saudi have played key roles in arming and funding some of the rebel factions, which has led to these groups becoming dependent upon their patrons for supplies. This has compromised their ability to autonomously follow their own political and military objectives and has thus seen the revolution hijacked by foreign powers.

Slowly all the gains made by the rebels over the past few years are being reversed due to a combination of direct assaults by Assad and distractions such as the Turkish operations against Kurds in Operation Euphrates Shield during the fall of Aleppo and Operation Olive Branch whilst the assault on Eastern Ghouta has recently been taking place. This should be a sobering reminder to those who wish to see the end of colonial exploitation of Muslim lands and the reign of tyrants that armed action by civilians against a state and its foreign allies is not the way to bring change.

The existence of multiple groups, all with arms and with varying objectives, may have brought some initial setbacks to the incumbent regime but due to issues related to logistics such as availability of supplies, operational planning and political disunity the regime has managed to mount a comeback. Whilst some may point to the decimation of Assad’s Alawite forces and reliance upon foreign players, this is irrelevant when considering that all these players are united against the goals of the opposition to rid Syria of its current regime and political status domestically as well as internationally.

The most important lesson to learn from the Syria debacle is that the rebels failed to establish a consensus on the political aims of the revolution. Their lack of clear ideological and political aims made them easy prey for foreign powers who were looking to exploit and subvert the revolution.

Bashar al-Assad may have the upper hand, but he still has to regain the whole nation, despite his armed forces being decimated. He will need significant external support for this, from foreign powers who are not as invested as he is in Syria.

Ultimately we must remember that victory is from Allah (swt) and only when He (swt) decides will the situation change. Until then we must do our best to follow the Prophetic method which clearly remains the gold standard process for change despite the passing of almost one and a half thousand years. The victory of the tyrant in Damascus and his brutal allies should not be a cause of losing hope in the promise of Allah (swt), for this is a certain promise.

http://www.hizb.org.uk/syria/syria-7-years-on/

Salaam

Another update

Even the White Helmets have been rescued from Syria – so are we about to see the final battle of the war?

Thanks to Donald Trump, it’s all over for the ‘rebels’ of Syria because they have been betrayed by the Americans – surely and finally by Trump himself in those secret discussions with Vladimir Putin


Will it be the Last Battle? For three years, Idlib has been the dumping ground for all of Syria’s retreating Islamist militias, the final redoubt of every combatant who has chosen to fight on, rather than surrender to the Syrian army and the Russian air force – and to Hezbollah and, to a far smaller degree, the Iranians.

Brigadier general Suheil al-Hassan, the “Tiger” of Syrian military legend and myth – who can quote the poet Mutanabi by heart but prefers to be compared to Erwin Rommel rather than Bernard Montgomery – will surely take his “Tiger Forces” with him for the final reckoning between the Damascus regime and the Salafist-inspired and western-armed Islamists who dared to try, and very definitely failed, to destroy Bashar al-Assad’s rule.

Thanks to Donald Trump, it’s all over for the “rebels” of Syria because they have been betrayed by the Americans – surely and finally by Trump himself in those secret discussions with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, perhaps the most important of the “unknowns” of that translators-only chat – as they have by the Gulf Arabs.

Three weeks earlier, the Americans had told the rebels of southwestern Syria below the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that they were on their own, and could expect no more military assistance. Even the White Helmets, the first-responder heroes or propagandists of the rebel war (take your pick, but be sure they will soon be described as “controversial”) have been rescued with their families from the rebel lines by the Israelis and dispatched to safety in Jordan.

The Israelis are a bit miffed that they weren’t thanked by the White Helmets’ civil defence units for their humanitarian assistance – but what do they expect when they spent their time attacking Iranian, Hezbollah and Syrian forces during the war, supplying medical aid to the Nusrah Islamist fighters who came to their lines and never – ever – bombed Isis? Do the White Helmets want to be associated with Israel right now?

But the Israelis got what they really wanted: a Russian promise that the Iranians will stay far away from the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan plateau. It’s all a bit odd, since there are precious few Iranian troops in Syria – and you can forget the humbug from the Washington “experts” – but it fits in with Benjamin Netanyahu’s morbid and theatrical conviction that Iran is “a noose of terror” round Israel’s neck. In any event, Putin knows a thing or two about the Syrian war: bombs talk, but so does cash.

For why else has Putin just announced a $50bn (£38bn) dollar Russian investment in Iran’s oil and gas industry? Isn’t this simply a downpayment for Iran’s past investment in Syria’s war? A “thank you but you can go now” gift from Moscow in return for a, no doubt, triumphal march-past in Tehran of Iran’s returning “victorious” forces, back from their Islamic revolutionary duties in Syria?

After meeting Putin in the Kremlin less than two weeks ago, Ali Akbar Velayati, “Supreme Leader” Khamenei’s senior adviser on foreign affairs, agreed that their talks “focused on Russian-Iranian cooperation … as well as the situation in the region, including developments in Syria”. And there you have it. Iran’s economy is propped up, but it’s got its Syrian marching orders from Putin.

None too soon for the Iranians, no doubt. It was quite a shock for me to see the rich and wealthier middle class Iranians flooding into Belgrade this past month, bringing their cash and treasures to the west through one of the few European countries still permitting visa-free entry for the sanctioned Iranians. Cheap flights from Tehran and other Iranian cities are landing daily in Serbia, and Belgrade’s hotels are packed with Farsi-speaking guests, all set – presumably – for new lives in the west. The European Union, needless to say, is threatening the Belgrade president that if he doesn’t block the profitable Iranian “tourists”, it will end the no-visa travel which Serbian citizens enjoy in the rest of Europe.

Meanwhile the Syrian army, fighting the last no-surrender Islamist groups around Deraa, will also return to the edge of the United Nations buffer zone on Golan where it was based before the civil war began in 2011. In other words, the “Southern Front” will be resolved, leaving only the Idlib Redoubt and the city of Raqqa which remains in the hands of militias who are still loyal – if they can be expected to be much longer, given the fact that Trump is ratting on them – to the US. Putin can probably solve this problem, if he hasn’t already done so in his Trump pow-wow.

But Idlib is a bigger deal. No doubt, we shall see further Russian-sponsored “reconciliation” talks between the Syrian authorities and the rebel groups inside the province. There will be agreements, private and public, whereby those who wish to return to government-controlled territory may do so. But given the fact that Idlib contains those Islamists and their families who earlier rejected such offers in other cities – many of them were bussed from Ghouta and Yarmouk in Damascus and from Homs and other towns where they surrendered, directly to Idlib province – their future looks pretty bleak.

We all like wars to have a “final battle”, of course. Jerusalem and Baghdad – strangely enough – were the only enemy “capital” cities invaded by the Allies during the First World War. And we know that the fall of Berlin to the Russians ended the European bit of the Second World War. We’ll leave out the fall of Saigon for obvious reasons (the wrong side won), and the various Middle East “capital” conquests (Jerusalem in 1967, Beirut in 1982, Kuwait in 1990, Baghdad in 2003), because they all left bloody legacies which continue to this day.

But we should remember one thing. The Syrian army is used to pitch battles. So is the Russian air force. Certainly, Nusrah’s siege of the government-held Jisr al-Shugour military hospital in Idlib – and the massacre of many of its army defenders and their families three years ago – is unlikely to be forgotten when the last battle begins. Moscow is not going to welcome any Islamists “home” to Chechnya. And Ankara will not want to scatter Idlib’s veterans across the plains of Anatolia – especially when Erdogan is still obsessed with an attempted “Islamist” coup two years ago, tens of thousands of whose alleged supporters still languish in Turkey’s luxurious prisons.

The west is certainly not going to help. There’s the old UN donkey, I suppose, which could be led into Idlib on a “temporary” peace-keeping mission – but that will not commend itself to a Syrian president who intends to return every square kilometre of the country to the regime’s exclusive control. An even tinier dumping ground might be available if the rebels of Idlib are shunted into the northern enclave of Afrin – already largely controlled and populated by Turkey’s erstwhile friends from Isis. Certainly, the west won’t want the detritus of the Islamist army which it helped to arm. Political asylum for the White Helmets is likely to be the full extent of its generosity, along with the usual aid to refugees.

But we must also remember that those nations which have so long sought the overthrow of Assad will now be trying – ever so slowly – to reestablish some form of relationship with the regime in Damascus. French diplomats, speak it not, have been taking tourist trips in and out of Syria from Lebanon for almost a year. So have discrete envoys from other European nations. The Americans will want to play their own little role – Trump-like and weird as it may be – and there, at this critical moment, Putin will be on hand.

But what of the five million Syrian refugees whose host countries – European, of course, but also Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Egypt – would dearly love them to go “home”. And therein lies, perhaps, the clue to this “end of war”.

The Russians are ready to supply guarantees of safe passage home to refugees – what these promises are worth remains an open question when many thousands of the homeless are fearful of the regime – and Moscow’s men are reported to have already arrived in Lebanon, which hosts up to a million and a half Syrians, to chat about the logistics. Gulf Arabs – particularly Qatar – are said to be interested in financially rebuilding Syria. So if they won’t surrender militarily, can the Idlib “rebels” be bought off? Not least by the Arab nations which supported them in the first place. These are early days. But all wars come to an end. And that’s where history restarts.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/white-helmets-syria-civil-war-rebels-army-assad-trump-putin-a8465066.html

Salaam

Another update

The Bilal Abdul Kareem show, Intense.

Blurb

Today's Topics for the Bilal Abdul Kareem
-Why is Bilal Abdul Kareem Challenging the US Gov't in Court
-Pakistan Elections: Something New in Imran Khan

Pro regime populations are leaving their remaining enclaves in Idlib province. Though I think he's too optimistic Assads intentions.

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Buses that left were stoned by rebels.